Comments on RotoSavants.com: Cheap in 2010

Interesting stuff, Andrew, it's great to see a tru...

2009-10-29T19:50:56.729-04:00

Interesting stuff, Andrew, it's great to see a truly objective use of the numbers. I guess I usually err on the side of caution with guys this young, thus my 25/.260-.270 projection. The Reds also had atrocious OBP and and Slugging numbers - and pretty bad Runs Scored - in '09 so I wouldn't bank too heavily on exceptional RBI or Runs numbers for Bruce. Like you said, RBI and R are difficult to project but if you had to guess, you'd have to say that the Reds will be one of the poorer teams to be on for fantasy purposes.

Right now if you forced me to take an over/under on, say, 28.5 HR I'd tentatively take the under but again, that's more based on lack of track record than anything else. He'll be an interesting case this year but I think '11 or '12 is when he'll really come alive.

Ok, I've come up with a luck-adjusted worst case s...

2009-10-29T17:22:30.790-04:00

Ok, I've come up with a luck-adjusted worst case scenario for Bruce.

I used his career K rate of 24.4%, his 2008 FB rate of 34.2%, his 2009 HR/FB% of 16.8%, his 2008 IFFB rate of 13.5%. Using the 2008 FB% and the 2009 LD% gave me a GB rate of 52.8%.

I used these rates to calculate the numbers that fit the input parameters of the qxBABIP calculator. Bruce's qxBABIP if given those parameters, ended up being .307.

Using that BABIP along with Bruce's career K rate of 24.4% gave Bruce a .262 batting average.

His 2008 FB% along with his 2009 HR/FB% yielded 26 HRs over the course of 600 ABs.

Even when we stack the deck in pretty much every conceivable way, Bruce still ends up hitting .262 with 26 HRs when adjusting for luck.

Unless we expect Bruce's batted ball ratios to be even more distorted than this example, or his K rate to spike above his career average, those numbers should be viewed more or less as Bruce's absolute baseline.

Again, by cherrypicking Bruce's worst season-long ratios (except the K%, for which we used his career rate), we come up with numbers that are in line with your numbers. Considering that I respect your analysis, and consider it a good deal above that of the average fantasy player, I'd expect that you'd draft him before his ADP given the numbers you projected.

Even THAT draft position, however, only lines up with what is pretty much a worst-case scenario for Jay Bruce.

Obviously, using it'll be a luck-adjusted scenario...

2009-10-29T16:43:21.034-04:00

Obviously, using it'll be a luck-adjusted scenario

Personally, I'm expecting something in between Bru...

2009-10-29T16:42:08.329-04:00

Personally, I'm expecting something in between Bruce's 2008 and 2009 batted ball numbers, but weighted more towards the 2009 numbers.

The thing is, even if Bruce has his 2008 FB%, he'll also put up a higher LD%, which would adjust his batting average upwards. I think it's unreasonable to say that his FB rates have the potential to drop without noting that there'd be a corresponding upward adjustment in LD%.

I don't think Bruce will ever sustainably put up the elite HR/FB% of an Adam Dunn, but the fact that he puts so many more balls in play will help his raw HR totals.

Further, however you want to cut the batted ball numbers, Bruce has already shown the skills to hit a good deal above Dunn's career .249 line.

I'm going to stack the deck against Bruce by using his 2008 FB%, 2009 HR/FB%, career K%, and 2009 LD% and use the qxBABIP tool to come up with a projected worst case scenario. I'll post that shortly.

Andrew, I think Bruce is an interesting case and I...

2009-10-29T10:50:36.183-04:00

Andrew, I think Bruce is an interesting case and I think we both agree that he has elite potential I just don't think that '10 will be the year that he puts it all together, I guess because I'm still looking for some consistency in his batted ball numbers. '08 - 44.7 GB%/34.2 FB%/20.2 HR/FB%, '09 - 38.5/48.5/16.8. Those are some pretty big swings so I guess I'm looking for more data before predicting more than about 25 HR, .260-.270 BA. If he can combine his '08 HR rate with his '09 flyball rate he could be an Adam Dunn without the walks. But what if it's the other side of the coin in '10, '08 flyball rate and '09 HR rate?

Still I agree that he'll probably beat his ADP in '10 so he's definitely on my radar in all leagues but especially in keeper formats. Assuming he's still available in your league and your competitors aren't BABIP savvy this could be a fantastic opportunity to buy low on a future star.

I agree that it'd be nice to see a sustained elite...

2009-10-28T23:08:24.895-04:00

I agree that it'd be nice to see a sustained elite HR/FB% from Bruce, but with the sheer number of fly balls he hits (assuming 2009's trends continue), I consider 30 HRs a near-lock at Great American Ballpark.

As I said before, even without assuming any increase in skills in only his age 23 season, I expect him to outperform his draft position by a significant margin.

If he increases his skills (say by upping that HR/FB%), he'll be a monster. It's difficult to project ADPs at this point, so there are few players that I'm this confident will outperform their ADP and fewer still that have the upside that Bruce does.

Ryan, you've gotta keep Rollins. In the fourth ro...

2009-10-28T15:49:27.651-04:00

Ryan, you've gotta keep Rollins. In the fourth round he's a steal and I'd consider him in the third depending on whose on the board. Everth just has too many weaknesses, HR, RBI, and BA.

Andrew, I don't see greatness for Bruce in '10 although he might grow into it. For a guy with limited speed potential I'd like to see sustained HR/FB% closer to 20. Even so, he'll likely be undervalued due to his '09 numbers and drafting him as a second or third OF who might put up better numbers than your first OF means that he could be a good tactical move.

ultimately, i think bruce's ceiling is a perennial...

2009-10-27T17:55:35.514-04:00

ultimately, i think bruce's ceiling is a perennial 2nd round pick for 12-team 5X5 leagues, with the ability to sneak into the 1st round following his best years.

He certainly won't a one-dollar, final round guy, ...

2009-10-27T17:52:39.108-04:00

He certainly won't a one-dollar, final round guy, but i'm willing to say he outperforms his draft position with a a very high level of confidence.

bruce's .222 babip in 2009 was the lowest out of anyone with his number of PAs

if you use hardball times' qxbabip tool to adjust bruce's career average, it comes out to .272.

even if you think the career qxbabip number of .308 is high (i personally don't think it is), you're still talking of at least a .250 hitter, and probably more of a .260 hitter.

bruce has shown extraordinary power for his age.

given a healthy season, i'd put a reasonable expectation of bruce's baseline to be a .255 average with 27 HRs. these, to me, are his numbers if he has moderate bad luck and shows a regression in skills he has already proven to have (eg HR/FB%). i don't include R/RBI/SB in my projections as i find the first two difficult to accurately project due to their team-oriented nature, and though bruce has some speed upside, any SBs he gets are a bonus.

my actual expectations for bruce are something this:

.275 with 33 HRs.

these numbers are completely in line with luck-adjusted rates he's shown over his career without any expectation for improvement over what he's already shown.

if bruce gets lucky and/or improves upon his current skills, i wouldn't be the least bit shocked if he were to jump to superstardom by putting up rates in 5X5 leagues comparable to carlos quentin's 2008 fantasy-relevant numbers. (i don't mean this as a true player comp... more of a comp for 5X5 fantasy numbers).

i could be wrong, but i expect bruce's ADP to be justified if he matches the baseline projections i gave for him. maybe i'm wrong in the amount of hype he'll garner over the coming months, but i haven't noticed anyone touting him on the fantasy sites i peruse.

if you use my mid-level expectations for bruce, i'd think these numbers significantly outprouce his expected ADP.

further, i think you need to bump up his value due to bruce's elite ceiling, and the premium one must put on elite players.

obviously i can't predict the future, but i think my expectations for bruce are completely in line with his statistical profile and the scouting reports of him.

if you feel i am making errors in my evaluation process, or if you have a different interpretation of the numbers, feel free to tell me.

the variable i'm least comfortable predicting in all of this is ADP, so if anyone can provide their ADP expectations it might be helpful.

But will Jay Bruce be that cheap in 2010? He's sti...

2009-10-27T16:42:07.892-04:00

But will Jay Bruce be that cheap in 2010? He's still pretty well hyped. I'm sure he might come cheaper than 2009, but he won't be a one-dollar, final-round investment.

I don't know how it's fair to extrapolate Rollins'...

2009-10-26T14:12:27.875-04:00

I don't know how it's fair to extrapolate Rollins' HR numbers in your projection of what he should have done. BABIP has nothing to do with HR rate, unless you're saying that Rollins would've hit 4 more inside-the-park HRs if his BABIP were normal.

I believe that Rollins is in decline, but I also believe he'll provide great value for at least next year.

If I'm you, Ryan, I'm still keeping Rollins.

Next up: Jay Bruce?

I love the idea. But I completely disagree. I thin...

2009-10-26T13:34:47.412-04:00

I love the idea. But I completely disagree. I think for the next 2 years you're going to get this baseline of production or less. Rollins has improved his K/walk but he had just as many doubles/triples as he did last year. And I'm a guy who might have to pay better than a 5th round pick to keep him on one of my teams. I'm not sure I can pay that when I can probably go for a power bat and then pick up a speedy super-cheap SS (Everth Cabrera!!!).