Daily Roto Pickups: June 6th

Mark Trumbo LAA, 1B, (33%) - Tumbo's low ownership is likely partially explained by those who haven't checked in on the Angels' situation since opening day but there're definitely reasons to look harder at first base in Anaheim. Two reasons to be exact-home runs, and steals. Trumbo's ISO is currently seventh among qualified 1B's at .221 and his stolen base total, six, ties him with Joey Votto for the lead among his colleagues at the cold corner. While I would expect the HR's to keep coming based on solid minor league production the speed is more suspect. Tumbo has just one minor league season with double digit steals and has already been caught three times this year but if his manager is willing to let him try his luck on the base paths his owners will certainly benefit.

Tim Stauffer, SD, SP, (33%) - Stauffer is carrying a career best K/9 and BB/9 so far this year and has a sparkling xFIP of 3.18 to show for it. Unfortunately his ERA has lagged to the tune of 3.99, likely inflated by his BABIP of .330. Normally guys who come in from the bullpen, where he had thirty-appearances last year to go with just seven starts, lose a little in terms of strikeout rate so if you do go with Stauffer keep a close eye on him. Another red flag is his relatively low SwStr% of 7.4 but if you need to speculate on a starter you could to worse than a guy with a 7.07 K/9 and a 2.44 BB/9 who plays his home games in PetCo.

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Daily Roto NOT Pickups: June 3rd

Jason Bay NYM, OF (54%) - Something is wrong with Bay. After posting seven straight seasons including just one with an ISO below .230 he posted a mark of .144 last year and has plummeted to .079 this season. His HR/FB% has fallen off a cliff to around 5% in the past two seasons after routinely sitting in the high teens and his FB% has fallen a bit, as well. What exactly is wrong with him? I have no idea. Maybe he's hurt, or cursed. Whatever it is he's hitting for no power and walking less than ever. ZiPS (13/61/54/10/.243 updated proj.) and I agree that you really don't want to go near this guy.
Alternatives - Michael Brantely, 49% owned; Todd Helton, 39% owned; Seth Smith, 29% owned.

John Danks CWS, SP (49%) - Danks isn't quite as unownable as Bay but at this point he's really more of an innings eater than anything. His K/9 has fallen below 6.0 and his walk rate is a decent-but-nothing-special 3.20/9. Don't be fooled by three consecutive seasons of an ERA below 4.00 as everything has to break just right for a pitcher with such a low K rate to succeed. I wouldn't expect his ERA to stay North of 5.00 but don't expect it to dip much below the mid 4's either.
Alternatives - Bud Norris, 46% owned; Edwin Jackson, 42% owned; Brandon Beachy, 26% owned (returning in a couple weeks from oblique strain.)

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RotoHardBall.com and Curtis Granderson

In case you haven't been following me on twitter (Why not? @TroyPatterson) you might not know, but I have started writing for RotoHardBall.com at the SB Nation site.  There is a great lineup there so I suggest you check it out.  I just posted my first article there about the power surge from Curtis Granderson in New York this year.

Something I had gotten away from recently was hittrackeronline.com data.  This can be really helpful and shows what Granderson is and could be.  I also used this to describe why I think Asdrubal Cabrera is not for real (6 out of 10 home runs were "Just Enough or Lucky").  Anyway head over to my Granderson article and see why we should have seen this power coming.

Daily Roto Pickups: June 1st

Brent Lillibridge CWS, 2B (OF) (1%) - I've mentioned Lillibridge before as a cheap option for speed at second base but lately he's been showing some power to go along with his wheels. In fact, his current ISO of .317 would put him third in the majors behind only Bautista and Granderson if Lillibridge had enough AB's to qualify. Not that I think he'll maintain that mark but he did sport a decent ISO of .153 over sixty-four games last year so expecting a bit of pop isn't irrational. The problem with Lillibridge is playing time. He sits behind Pierre, Rios, and Quentin in the OF, and Alexei Ramirez and Gordon Beckham in the infield. Of course, if Juan Pierre gets caught stealing a few more times, nine SB, eight CS, then maybe the White Sox will decide to give Lillibridge a shot at the starting job. Unfortunately, we have to play our hands based on what the team is likely to do, not what they should do, and so Lillibridge is likely a speculative grab at this point in all but deep leagues.

Chris Narveson MIL, SP, (15%) - Narveson is like the poor man's Bud Norris, who is already the poor man's Brandon Morrow, who is the poor man's, um, Tim Lincecum? He fits into the mold of a high strikeout pitcher-8.45 K/9 this season, 7.96 career-with decent control-3.32 BB/9 this season, 3.24 career. This year he's also managed to up his GB% to a decent 43.2% which has led to an xFIP of 3.29, 26th in the majors. This season has seen Narveson make positive jumps in a lot of categories-SwStr%, F-Strike%, O-Swing%, and Contact% in addition to the stats I've already discussed-so if you think he's taken the next step in his development now's the time to grab him. If you think he's just a journeyman having a bit of luck he's still worth a bench spot as a high K SP.

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