Liriano's Control Issues

There has been a lot of ink printed about the release point issues that have shown for Francisco Liriano this season, but there is just one little problem with that answer.  He was just as wild with his release point last season.  Here is a graph of his release point in all his starts so far in 2011.

There are two release points for Liriano in what looks like an overhead angle and a slightly offset arm angle.  normally this would be a concern for injury, but before anyone goes thinking this is why his BB/9 stands at 6.61 (the same as his ERA).  Here is his 2010 data for release points.

That looks the same to me and when I hear Ron Gardenhire brought this to Liriano's attention, according to this story, I am concerned he will make more changes to his delivery.  This is the way Liriano has pitched for at least a year now.  his 2009 was a bit different as it was not like two seperate release points, but one really large oval of release points.

Hopefully Liriano will not work to hard to change his release and delivery and work more on getting ahead of pitchers (43.8% first strike rate, which is a career low) and work on his fastball.  According to FanGraphs.com pitch f/x his fastball in 2010 was being increasingly classified as a two seamer for it's horizontal movement.  This worked for him, but this year he has come with a straighter four seam pitch.

Liriano obviously relies on an elite changeup, but with a slight velocity decrease in the early months and a straighter fastball he has struggled with his control.  Obviously the no hitter was good for fantasy teams, but the 6 walks was still a huge red flag.  Hopefully Liriano can solve this issue, but I'm not encouraged by Gardenhire's comments.

Graphs are from TexasLeaguers.com

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On Whether the Weather Matters

The American Meteorological Society recently released a report on how the weather effects baseball. Results can be seen here:

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=6476711

The upshot is that sunny days help the pitcher, cloud cover helps the batters and the fielders. The article is definitely worth the read for any baseball fan but the fantasy impact isn't great, especially for hitters. For those streaming pitchers, however, the extra .5 K/9 (approximately) caused by a sunny day just might make a difference in your choice.

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Joe West gets it Wrong, then Right, then Wrong again.

I have a problem with umpire Joe West. He seems arrogant, makes stupid comments to the media, and generally proves the rule that if you hear the umpire's name, something's gone wrong. But tonight in the Blue Jay/Rays game he surprised me and did the right thing. After calling Rays runner Sam Fuld safe on a tag play at first West realized the he may have been blocked and asked for help from the other umpires. After a confab Fuld was called out as he was tagged by Adam Lind before touching the base. While further replays showed that the runner probably should have been safe I have to applaud West for asking for help in the first place. Umpires are fallible and while he was in good position to make the call on the force play he did look like he was blocked on the tag play.

Unfortunately, West's brief foray into maturity quickly evaporated during an argument with Rays manager Joe Maddon, who came out to argue the overturning of the original call. While watching the argument I counted at least three times when West stepped towards Maddon as Maddon stepped back. West was also repeatedly pointing at Maddon in an aggressive way during the argument. Hopefully he was saying something to the effect of, "We're just trying to get it right. Don't you want us to get it right?" but his body language was inappropriate for a profession that should go unnoticed as much as possible. Arguments between managers and umpires are a part of the game but there's no call for an umpire to be anything but professional in such a situation. His place is to be above the histrionics of the players, manages, or fans and by his dispassion embody the mission of an umpire: impartiality and accuracy. While both goals are impossible to achieve with perfect consistency a good umpire strives for both in all of his actions, from calling balls and strikes to dealing with those who disagree with him.

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Daily Roto Pickups: May 4

Hitter

Jack Hannahan - 3B - Cleveland Indians (39% owned)
While Cleveland is no hitters park especially for home runs it's better than any home park Hannahan has ever called home.  After going from Oakland to Seattle he gets a small jump in power by going to Cleveland and the AL Central.  The 20+ home run pace might be a bit optimistic for him, but 15 would be the low for him in my opinion.

He's 31 years old and largely known as a defensive player, but his strikeout rate has gotten better for the past two seasons.  He's part of a surprising Indians squad and could be a good fill in for those waiting the return of Ryan Zimmerman.

Pitcher

Jason Marquis - SP - Washington Nationals (38% owned)
This is an interesting case.  Could Marquis really have suddenly gained that much control to drop his career BB/9 from 3.46 all the way to 1.31?  Probably not, but with 142 batters faced it's tough to debate he has improved his control so far this year.  When you combine that with his ground ball tendencies you have a pitcher headed for a very solid ERA.

He's been lucky with his home runs against, but that's going to happen in this sample size with a ground ball pitcher.  A lot in his numbers seem questionable, but as the sample grows you have to give some notice.  Based on what we have seen I expect him to finish 2011 with an ERA below 4, but his win total will be a problem.

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Deep League 2B

2B may be a deep position this year but it can never be deep enough for some leagues. For those looking to fill a hole up the middle in a deep league let's take a look at a couple of guys who've taken over as starters at second base.

Daily Roto Pickups: May 3

Hitter 

Michael Brantley - OF -  Cleveland Indians (26% owned)
I have a thing for patient hitters and when they can add some speed they are worth owning.  Brantley hasn't shown a lot of power in his young career, but he still has time to develop a bit more strength and he could top 10 homers in a good year.

Put that with an OBP around .360 and you have a guy who can supply runs, steals and a solid average or OBP depending on your league.  He's getting his best chance this year so I expect big things from him.

Pitcher


Chris Narveson - SP - Milwaukee Brewers (53% owned)
His ownership has dropped, but his ERA has been deceiving so far.  He has a FIP of 3.31 and has been striking out batters very well for someone on the waivers in many leagues.

He can strike out around 8 batters per nine and his walk rate is not great, but so far his control numbers have been solid.  He gives up a few to many fly balls, but as far as waiver wire options he should give you better strikeouts than most and an average to above average ERA and WHIP.

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Buying High

One of the toughest things to do in fantasy sports is pull off a good trade. If you target slumping players most managers will think that you're trying to buy low and would rather eat crow than give you a discount (try getting Hanley Ramirez on the cheap and you'll see what I mean.) On the other hand, trying to acquire a surging player like Sam Fuld or Alex Gordon likely means overpaying for his true talent as a manager is likely going to have a hard time parting with his most productive player. It's really just simply psychology. Slumping players that we payed a lot for are assumed to be just suffering from bad luck while cheap players who are lighting it up are assumed to have really made progress in their development. Either way, it's hard to find bargains.

So where can we profit when looking for a trade? Well, here are a couple of thoughts. Hint: the key is to make them think they're selling high.

Daily Roto Pickups: May 2

With one month down it's still early, but it's starting to get to the point when you can make some bigger decisions.  I still wouldn't give up on your early draft talent, but perhaps a few days on your bench for some new pickups could be worth a shot.

Hitter


Matt Joyce - OF - Tampa Bay Rays (19% owned)

Here's another outfielder who might have 20 homers in his bat if he gets the playing time.  Even if he doesn't hit the home runs he has a very impressive eye and with a solid OBP could supply plenty of runs for a waiver wire option.

He homered in two straight so the power is showing and the team even put him in at cleanup on Saturday.  The ability to steal 5+ bases is just an added bonus.

Pitcher


Bud Norris - SP - Houston Astros (52% owned)

When it comes to waiver wire pitchers you usually need to expect only a few things out of them.  Perhaps ERA and an OK WHIP or maybe a good strikeout total.  This is the case with Bud Norris as his strikeout totals are very good, but he walks plenty of batters.