Position Ranking: Starting Pitchers - Part 1

Tier One:
Tim Lincecum (22.1) - A lot of people are picking Halladay first and they'd be right in real life, but in the fantasy world The Freak's K rate trumps Halladay's BB%.
Roy Halladay (14.8) - He's still really good, though.
Felix Hernandez (29.1) - No seasons under 190 IP since his rookie year, only one career season xFIP over 3.50.
Adam Wainwright (37.0) - I've always been skeptical of him, probably because of his pedestrian '07, but you can't argue with his success over the past two season.
Cliff Lee (37.2) - He'll always be better in real life than fantasy because of his style, solid K/9 and historic BB/9, but the switch to the National League should give him a nice boost.
Jon Lester (39.6) - Jon maintained his excellent K/9 last year while increasing his GB%. His BB/9 did creep up a bit but he still provides good value at his ADP.
Zack Greinke (49.1) - 2010 was a funny year for Grienke as his GB% was a career best but his K/9 dropped significantly. The jump to the NL puts him ahead of guys like Haren and CC.
Josh Johnson (65.6) - He does it all, including provide great value at his ADP.
Dan Haren (52.8) - Despite heading to the wrong league he's still one of my favorite aces.
Justin Verlander (64.6) - He's got a below average GB% but other than that his numbers are stellar and his durability is excellent.
Francisco Liriano (78.0) - If you believe he's back to '06 form Liriano could provide fantastic value at his current ADP.
Mat Latos (72.6) - Simply put, he posted elite stats last year. Even if you think he's due for regression just remember that he plays in pitcher heaven.

BOTTOM LINE - Whatever your philosophy on pitchers it makes sense to target Liriano, Johnson, Latos, or Verlander in the 5th or 6th round. They just provide too much value to be ignored.


Tier Two:
Cole Hamels (66.4) - He could easily have been in the group above with his excellent numbers across the board. Too bad about his home ballpark.
CC Sabathia (49.8) - Not a bad guy to have on your team but when you could get Johnson, Verlander, or Haren later in the draft CC's avoidable.
Yovani Gallardo (65.8) - His BB/9 has bounced around a bit but he should rack up the strikeouts.
Ubaldo Jimenez (42.3) - He was a monster in '10 but his BB/9 is just too high to expect another sub-3.00 ERA season. Heck, even sub 3.50 is probably optimistic.
Roy Oswalt (99.7) - Remember when Oswalt was awesome? Actually, "awesome" pretty much describes every year of his career except maybe '07, when his xFIP "ballooned" to 4.08, twenty points higher than any other year of his career.
Clayton Kershaw (51.3) - He plays in a great division for pitchers but can he continue to outperform his xFIP so handily?
Tommy Hanson (80.0) - Keep his K/9 from '09 and his BB/9 from '10 and he starts to look really, really good.
David Price (60.7) - He's headed in the right direction, rising K/9 and falling BB/9 in '10, but not yet the ace he might be considered by your league mates.
Josh Beckett (185.7) - Didn't see that one coming, did you? The K's are still there , 8.18/9 in '10, and you can expect last year's BB/9 (3.17) to regress down a bit.
James Shields (174.4) - And for my next trick...! Seriously, though, he's always had great control (2.00 career BB/9,) add in an 8.28 K/9 last year and you have a potential #2 fantasy pitcher.
Wandy Rodriguez (120.4) - He basically Josh Beckett in the NL, 8.22 K/9, 3.14 BB/9 last year.
Chad Billingsley (88.8) -Plays in a pitcher division and get good strikeouts.
Ryan Dempster (94.9) - Expect a K/9 above 8.00 and a decent GB%.
Max Scherzer (103.8) - Good K rate and middle of the road BB and GB rates are better than the opposite, at least for fantasy purposes.
Jered Weaver (54.2) - Career bests last year in all xFIP categories (K/9, BB/9, and GB%) certainly set the stage for a big ol' wallop from the regression stick for Mr. Weaver.

Tier Three
Dan Hudson (126.9) - Not a long MLB track record but he never put up less than a K an inning in the minors.
Jonathan Sanchez (148) - Control is an issue but excellent strikeout numbers (9.41 career) and a good division to pitch in make up for his flaws.
Brandon Morrow (130.1) - Since Northern Exposure he's done quite well for himself in the Majors. Expect a K rate well above 9 and take the walks with a grain of salt.
Colby Lewis (113.9) - He put up very solid K/9 (8.78) and BB/9 (2.91) in 2010. If he could combine those with his '06 GB% (58.3) he'd be great. What's that? He only pitched three innings in '06? Cherry-picking? Ok, I guess you're right. His GB% is poor and unlikely to improve.
Madison Bumgarner (143.5) - Don't expect excellent K numbers but his control is very good.
Chris Carpenter (88.6) - He's a great guy to draft if you already have a high K, high BB guy like Ubaldo. Carpenter should moderate your WHIP even if he doesn't blow away too many hitters.
Matt Cain (87.1) - It's hard to get too excited about a pitcher with a 7.44 career K/9 and a 36.3 GB%, though it helps that he's in the NL West, but if you believe in his low HR/FB% then go for it.
Tim Hudson (148.02) - It's too bad his K/9 will likely be below 6.00 because his control and GB% are excellent. Pair him with a high K high BB type.
Gavin Floyd (148.89) - Above average, if not spectacular, in all important categories.
Brett Anderson (182.54) - He's got great control so if his K/9 can creep up into the mid 7's he'll be a good value.
Gio Gonzalez (178.33) - Most projections see him improving his K/9 next year while keeping his 2010 BB/9. That would be good.
Brett Myers (165.44) - It's hard to draft an Astro but Myers should be above average in every xFIP category.

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Position Rankings: Outfield - Part 1

Tier One
Carlos Gonzalez (6.57) - Expect some regression but 30/30 with a .300 BA is a reasonable expectation.
Josh Hamilton (12.13) - When healthy Hamilton is an absolute beast, with 40 HR upside along with a very good BA and a handful of steals.
Matt Kemp (23.14) - His BA fell along with his BABIP last year but he's the only one left on the board with a good shot at 30/25.
Ryan Braun (11.51) - I'm worried about his power as both his FB% and his HR/FB% have dropped a lot since his first two years in the league.
Carl Crawford (15.16) - I don't know why people assume he'll stop running in BOS. Maybe he won't net 55+ SB, but no reason to predict a drop below 40.
Matt Holliday (22.10) - Can't argue with these results. Great value for '11 while Pujols is definitely still in STL.
Nelson Cruz (32.83) - Health is his only weakness.
Shin-Soo Choo (27.46) - You can't argue with consistency. Who doesn't like a .300 hitter with 20/20 potential?
Justin Upton (40.22) - Had an off year after great '09 season. Might make his ADP value more appealing. Bid on a bounceback.
Andre Ethier (39.28) - Had an off year, which makes his draft value even better. Could repeat '09 stats but with better '10 AVG.
Jose Bautista (51.76) - He's got an excellent eye even if the power regresses.

Tier Two
Andrew McCutchen (47.59) - Love this guy's upside. Chance at 20/30 year with good AVG, and he's still developing.
Jason Heyward (50.96) - He'll explode at some point but remember that you're paying for the potential, even if it doesn't develop in 2011.
Jayson Werth (50.31) - His HR, steals, and HR/FB% all fell quite a bit in '10 so don't expect anything too close to 30/30
Curtis Granderson (65.87) - 2010 saw Granderson increase his ISO and HR/FB% while maintaining his excellent SB%. 2011 could be a nice surprise for his owners.
Alex Rios (66.23) - The only red flag in his solid '10 was his drop in SB%.
Jacoby Ellsbury (69.32) - The Sox have committed to him as a leadoff hitter so hopefully he's back on track to run wild.
Jay Bruce (79.63) - Big potential still there, but just not as much SB as we'd originally hoped. Is 30-40 HR out of the question? I don't think so.
B.J. Upton (73.19) - His ISO, FB%, and HR/FB% all increased nicely in '10 so hopefully he can combine his '07 power with his '08-'10 speed.
Colby Rasmus (93.53) - Do you double his first half or his second half for a full year? Not sure he'll repeat 2010, but he's young enough that he could surprise me.
Hunter Pence (83.84) - Was touted to be stellar, then people lost interest despite the fact he's been consistently very good. Good ADP value.
Mike Stanton (135.80) - His power is historic and his K% dropped in the second half of last year so he's moving in the right direction.
Shane Victorino (130.74) - Usually undervalued. Struggles against righties might mean his ADP is pretty accurate, but no reason to think he can't continue at his 3-year average of 14 HR, 31 SB.
Drew Stubbs (185.90) - Pretty safe 20/30 candidate.

Tier Three
Ichiro Suzuki (32.66) - Thought I forgot him, didn't ya? Really, I just can't understand people's obsession with a two-category player, especially when his runs have dropped so much the past couple of years and his speed is good but not game changing, like that of Ellsbury or Crawford.
Jason Bay (200.72) - He's definitely worth a look as a cheap bounce-back player, especially considering his ADP.
Grady Sizemore (97.25) - Remember when he was awesome?
Torii Hunter (94.07) - Used to be great value for ADP, but with loss of SB, now ADP is about right.
Corey Hart (107.85) - Boost in HR is nice. SB drop is partly because he's simply not running as much, so don't expect a 30/20 year, but 25/10 is possible.
Vernon Wells (101.36) - Value worse in LAA. Still, chance at 25 HR and good RBI numbers.
Chris Young (186.24) - The Rickie Weeks of the OF. Good chance to net 25/25, and AVG may not kill you anymore.
Michael Bourn (116.10) - Improving his BB/9, which helps him retain his SB value, but still a one-trick pony.
Bobby Abreu (123.51) - Hope the AVG bounces back, but don't expect 20 HR or 30 SB.
Juan Pierre (129.78) - Why take Ichiro in the third when you can take Pierre in the tenth?
Rajai Davis (263.46) - And why take Pierre in the tenth when you can get Davis in the twentieth?
Delmon Young (105.39) - Goodbye SB, hello HR. Nice FB% and HR/FB bodes well for a 25 HR season.


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Over/Under: Andre Ethier and Justin Upton

In this series, we look at players' average draft position and then argue why we think they will be better or worse than that.

In 2010, Andre Ethier and Justin Upton both suffered injuries and had arguably disappointing seasons after showing huge promise in 2009. Obviously these guys are still top-flight fantasy options for your team, and they're both going at the same time in drafts, with an ADP around 40. Which one's value is over the ADP, and which one is under it?

Andre Ethier busted a pinkie finger, causing him to miss time and lowering his counting stats. However, a look at his overall skill set shows a line very similar to his great 2009 campaign: his walk rate (10.5% in '09, 10.1% in '10) and SLG (.508, .493) had only minor dips, and his 2010 BABIP of .322 was more in line with his career (.318) and was certainly much better than his career low from 2009 (.289). He's maintained a LD% above 20% for the last three years, which bodes well for his BABIP and average. If he can ever solve his struggles against lefties, I think he's got another gear in there. Another 30 HR and 100 RBI season, this time with a better AVG, would not be a surprise. Ethier's ADP is 40, with his earliest pick at 29 and his latest at 56. I like the over on Ethier. You should feel comfortable taking him before 40 if you need a #1 or #2 OF.