The Cubs have traded a slew of prospects for Rays starter Matt Garza. Let's take a look at how this affects his stats and fantasy value.
The first thing most people state is that moving to the National League will immediately help a starter's ERA and WHIP. I won't get dragged into that argument, but the big issue that sticks out at me: Garza is a flyball pitcher who is moving from one of the pitcher-friendliest AL parks over the last three years. Bill James' Ballpark Index shows Tropicana Field was tied for the second-worst park at creating runs, and it was ranked 7th of 14 AL parks in HR. Take a look at Wrigley Field, and it's the opposite: it was ranked 2nd in runs and 4th in HR. Put flyball-happy Garza in a smaller home field with the wind blowing out, and I cringe at how his ERA could rise. It will take that "NL bonus" of facing pitchers for Garza's ERA and WHIP to stay where it is, but my guess is his ERA will rise over 4.15 even if his WHIP holds steady.
Next, let's look at his strikeouts and walks. Garza's BB/9 was 2.8, the best of his career and a drop of 0.7 from 2009, but he also saw his K/9 fall from a career best (8.4) to 6.6. I'm happy when a pitcher can maintain a 2.0+ K/BB ratio (and Garza has done that the last three years), but for fantasy purposes a 6.6 K/9 is only okay. To really impress (and to be worth the possible hype of his changing leagues), he needs to regain some K/9 and keep his BB/9 where it is. My guess is that 2009's K/9 rate is an outlier, though with the pitchers hitting in the NL, maybe he'll flirt with a 7.0.
I wish I had some positive outlook to give you, but everything I check over the last three years makes me worry more. His FIP and xFIP were a career high in 2010, and his HR/9 has steadily increased. His BABIP has been consistently below league average, but with everything else seeming to sour, I plan on it rising at least some. And let's not forget that the Cubs were far from the league lead in scoring runs for their pitchers (18th overall compared to the Rays' 4th), so for those who like to pretend win totals are predictable, Garza's wins are likely to drop.
Both as a Cubs fan and as a fantasy manager, I'm not impressed with the Garza trade. The Cubs aren't going to gain the #2 type starter they want. Instead, he's going to fit right in with our #3-#5 guys, becoming nothing special in the National League. Don't get excited about Garza's potential in 2011, and certainly don't bump him up in your draft prep rankings. If anything, I'd knock him down a notch.
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Friday, January 7
Position Rankings: Catcher
Today we'll take a look at the catcher position. A position once dominated over the past few seasons by Joe Mauer, Brian McCann and Victor Martinez has suddenly shifted thanks to an influx of young talent creeping into the upper ranks.
Tier One
Joe Mauer - He's not going to hit 28 homers again, but Mauer's consistency in his other skillsets is extremely valuable. His fall in 2010 to 9 homers was disappointing, but his 2011 projections call for a rebound in power to the mid teens.
Carlos Santana - Perhaps I'm a bit optimistic here especially after his injury, but Santana's potential is the real deal. He combines power, a good average, and is able to add a solid amount of steals. Expect his name in the top tier for years to come.
Brian McCann - McCann's production should be very similar to Santana's, with probably just a slight black mark in their power comparisons. McCann is still an elite selection.
Buster Posey - Posey is the second new addition to the first tier of catchers. He moves ahead of V-Mart due to his high average potential and his ability to get on base more. After that, Posey and Martinez are fairly equivalent.
Victor Martinez - He nearly fell out of my top tier, but will be here at least one more year. I worry if he spends to much time at DH, his hitting will suffer, so watch how much catching time he gets in Spring Training.
Tier Two
Matt Wieters - PECOTA, normally very bullish on rookies, set too optimistic of a benchmark for Wieters, ultimately watching him fall short. While that may have created the perception he's a "disappointment," Wieters' walk rate was superb for such a young player, and he suffered from an unfavorable BABIP. Expect his power to continue to grow while we watch how his BABIP regression to the mean affects his overall line.
Geovany Soto - His spot in the lineup hurts his value, but even with low RBI and R numbers, Soto's power and average easily softens the blow. If he had a more favorable lineup position, opportunities with a better supporting cast could have him crack the top tier.
Miguel Montero - While I prefer Iannetta's potential, his playing time is a big concern. Montero still has some great upside, but he has already suffered knee problems; he does not come without risk.
Chris Iannetta - The next two catchers are my stupid manager selections. If either one got the needed playing time, they would make any team better, fantasy or actual baseball. I ranked Iannetta first because the team seems a bit more intent on playing him.
Mike Napoli - Mike Scioscia should be fired just based on the talent he has wasted by not playing Napoli a full season as the starter. Napoli has 35-40 home runs in his bat with a full season, but apparently only a trade will bring that. This ranking is expecting him to stay in LA, but a move to somewhere like Boston would make him my number one catcher.
Tier Three
Kurt Suzuki - A few steals and fairly effective with a solid average for a catcher. Nothing flashy though; poor walks and little upside.
Chris Snyder - There is playing time in Pittsburgh for Snyder, but that's his only really attractive feature. His average will be a distraction, but good power should still make him usable.
Jorge Posada - Probably the last year of catcher eligibility, and that means the last year of fantasy relevance. His bat is not good enough to use as a DH or Util in fantasy.
J.P. Arencibia - Fans and owners will see a lot of Arencibia's at bats end with the ball in the glove of the catcher or somewhere in the stands. He's not really a true three-outcome guy, but his power should make him a viable catcher with playing time.
John Jaso - He's a good catcher, but not great at anything, and with Kelly Shoppach back his playing time is a question.
Gambling Tier
Adam Moore - Seattle is not a team to ignore OBP, and while he could hit 20 home runs, his walk rate in his first MLB try was scary. He has shown the ability to walk before, but he might not get enough ABs to prove it.
Jarrod Saltalamacchia - Unless a trade happens, it looks like Salty is finally getting his full shot this year. Jason Varitek will work with him and give him rest a few times, but he is going to see plenty of chances in a great lineup.
John Buck - Go back to his 2010 season and look under average. Then put a big X over .281 because that will not happen again. You draft Buck for 15-20 homers and good R and RBI for a catcher, but don't expect anything else.
Yadier Molina - Molina doesn't disappoint with his average, but the rest of his skills are about as poor as his brother is fat. He does have a few good years with steals, but don't risk drafting for those on someone kneeling behind the plate all season long.
Jesus Montero - Here is your flier pick. He might only see 100 plate appearances this year, but his power could force it's way into a bigger role. The catchers ahead of him are also not the most durable, and his bat could see more time. While Montero seems destined to last behind the plate no more than 200 games before he's moved to DH, one or two big fantasy seasons with catcher eligibility could be in line.
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Tier One
Joe Mauer - He's not going to hit 28 homers again, but Mauer's consistency in his other skillsets is extremely valuable. His fall in 2010 to 9 homers was disappointing, but his 2011 projections call for a rebound in power to the mid teens.
Carlos Santana - Perhaps I'm a bit optimistic here especially after his injury, but Santana's potential is the real deal. He combines power, a good average, and is able to add a solid amount of steals. Expect his name in the top tier for years to come.
Brian McCann - McCann's production should be very similar to Santana's, with probably just a slight black mark in their power comparisons. McCann is still an elite selection.
Buster Posey - Posey is the second new addition to the first tier of catchers. He moves ahead of V-Mart due to his high average potential and his ability to get on base more. After that, Posey and Martinez are fairly equivalent.
Victor Martinez - He nearly fell out of my top tier, but will be here at least one more year. I worry if he spends to much time at DH, his hitting will suffer, so watch how much catching time he gets in Spring Training.
Tier Two
Matt Wieters - PECOTA, normally very bullish on rookies, set too optimistic of a benchmark for Wieters, ultimately watching him fall short. While that may have created the perception he's a "disappointment," Wieters' walk rate was superb for such a young player, and he suffered from an unfavorable BABIP. Expect his power to continue to grow while we watch how his BABIP regression to the mean affects his overall line.
Geovany Soto - His spot in the lineup hurts his value, but even with low RBI and R numbers, Soto's power and average easily softens the blow. If he had a more favorable lineup position, opportunities with a better supporting cast could have him crack the top tier.
Miguel Montero - While I prefer Iannetta's potential, his playing time is a big concern. Montero still has some great upside, but he has already suffered knee problems; he does not come without risk.
Chris Iannetta - The next two catchers are my stupid manager selections. If either one got the needed playing time, they would make any team better, fantasy or actual baseball. I ranked Iannetta first because the team seems a bit more intent on playing him.
Mike Napoli - Mike Scioscia should be fired just based on the talent he has wasted by not playing Napoli a full season as the starter. Napoli has 35-40 home runs in his bat with a full season, but apparently only a trade will bring that. This ranking is expecting him to stay in LA, but a move to somewhere like Boston would make him my number one catcher.
Tier Three
Kurt Suzuki - A few steals and fairly effective with a solid average for a catcher. Nothing flashy though; poor walks and little upside.
Chris Snyder - There is playing time in Pittsburgh for Snyder, but that's his only really attractive feature. His average will be a distraction, but good power should still make him usable.
Jorge Posada - Probably the last year of catcher eligibility, and that means the last year of fantasy relevance. His bat is not good enough to use as a DH or Util in fantasy.
J.P. Arencibia - Fans and owners will see a lot of Arencibia's at bats end with the ball in the glove of the catcher or somewhere in the stands. He's not really a true three-outcome guy, but his power should make him a viable catcher with playing time.
John Jaso - He's a good catcher, but not great at anything, and with Kelly Shoppach back his playing time is a question.
Gambling Tier
Adam Moore - Seattle is not a team to ignore OBP, and while he could hit 20 home runs, his walk rate in his first MLB try was scary. He has shown the ability to walk before, but he might not get enough ABs to prove it.
Jarrod Saltalamacchia - Unless a trade happens, it looks like Salty is finally getting his full shot this year. Jason Varitek will work with him and give him rest a few times, but he is going to see plenty of chances in a great lineup.
John Buck - Go back to his 2010 season and look under average. Then put a big X over .281 because that will not happen again. You draft Buck for 15-20 homers and good R and RBI for a catcher, but don't expect anything else.
Yadier Molina - Molina doesn't disappoint with his average, but the rest of his skills are about as poor as his brother is fat. He does have a few good years with steals, but don't risk drafting for those on someone kneeling behind the plate all season long.
Jesus Montero - Here is your flier pick. He might only see 100 plate appearances this year, but his power could force it's way into a bigger role. The catchers ahead of him are also not the most durable, and his bat could see more time. While Montero seems destined to last behind the plate no more than 200 games before he's moved to DH, one or two big fantasy seasons with catcher eligibility could be in line.
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Thursday, January 6
Position Rankings: Second Base
Here are my rankings for second base. I ignored guys like Prado and Theriot who qualify due to 2010 but are projected to play other positions in 2011. I fully expect some rankings to be shocking, but that's the fun of making lists. May the debate begin!
Tier One
Chase Utley (16.39) - He's been a top 2B for years, and the thumb injury shouldn't change things for 2011.
Dustin Pedroia (30.78) - Anjother guy injured in 2010 , but I'm not worried. BOS lineup adds value to his 15/20 ability.
Robinson Cano (9.47) - Great year plus NYY player overvalue means he might go earlier than I like.
Dan Uggla (49.14) - Consistency is worth paying for. Bank on 30 HR, but AVG will fall, as it does every other year.
Kelly Johnson (113.56) - This might surprise, but he was making gains before awful 2009. I think he's legit, though expect something between 2008 and 2010 for power.
Tier Two
Ian Kinsler (50.33) - Were he ever healthy, he'd be higher. Don't reach too high and expect 2009 AB, stats.
Aaron Hill (166.32) - He had a horrendous BABIP (.196) due to awful LD%. Improved in second half, so AVG will bounce back. Given bad 2010, ADP value could be high. An Uggla a few rounds later?
Brandon Phillips (36.17) - The 50% GB doesn't bode well for return to 30 HR, and his CS was high in 2010. 20/20 maybe, but not more.
Neil Walker (321.74) - Young talent who will go unnoticed because he's in PIT. I could see a 20/10 year, so combined with bad-team anonymity, he's a great sleeper pick.
Gordon Beckham (218.22) - Second half is tempting to gamble on, but no guarantee here. Not sure he'll hit 20+ HR in 2011, but I'd take his upside over older, injury-risk guys.
Tier Three
Brian Roberts (128.04) - Injury to back may not affect his running (see second half 2010), but he's aging, and risk in health doesn't seem worth the possible 30 SB if healthy.
Howie Kendrick (226.15) - Will never be the AVG champion, but he's Polanco with a bit more HR/SB potential. AVG could easily bounce back to .290s, and 10/15 is serviceable.
Rickie Weeks (42.49)- Great ability, never healthy. I don't see the AB repeating, and drop in SB is worrisome. I see 20/10 at best, and that's if he's healthy. Be wary of bad AVG potential.
Chone Figgins (95.87) - Getting older, so I'm waiting for the SB to drop. In 5x5 he's got more value than this, but otherwise I'm not excited anymore.
Mike Aviles (172.81) - May play 3B in 2011, but I don't see Getz taking 2B from him. Kendrick potential with fewer R/RBI due to worse team.
Gambling Tier
Omar Infante (289.44) - Okay, he's likely the starter, but FLA, low HR/SB doesn't excite. More likely to increase SB numbers than HR, and AVG is likely to fall to .290-.300.
Sean Rodriguez (381.02) - With so many multi-position guys in TB, will he get enough AB? Power and speed enticing, but struggles could reduce playing time. Potential 15/20 if starter.
Jose Lopez ()- I like him if (big IF) he is full-time in COL, but Wigginton could affect that. Proven power potential, but not worth it in OBP leagues.
Danny Espinosa (395.27) - A power/speed guy who can hopefully get enough AB in WAS to matter to fantasy managers. The AVG might hurt, but 20/20 upside says gamble for MI slot.
Bill Hall ()- HOU claims he'll see most of the 2B starts? Hey, this late in the draft, a guy who could hit 15+ HR is worth a flier.
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Tier One
Chase Utley (16.39) - He's been a top 2B for years, and the thumb injury shouldn't change things for 2011.
Dustin Pedroia (30.78) - Anjother guy injured in 2010 , but I'm not worried. BOS lineup adds value to his 15/20 ability.
Robinson Cano (9.47) - Great year plus NYY player overvalue means he might go earlier than I like.
Dan Uggla (49.14) - Consistency is worth paying for. Bank on 30 HR, but AVG will fall, as it does every other year.
Kelly Johnson (113.56) - This might surprise, but he was making gains before awful 2009. I think he's legit, though expect something between 2008 and 2010 for power.
Tier Two
Ian Kinsler (50.33) - Were he ever healthy, he'd be higher. Don't reach too high and expect 2009 AB, stats.
Aaron Hill (166.32) - He had a horrendous BABIP (.196) due to awful LD%. Improved in second half, so AVG will bounce back. Given bad 2010, ADP value could be high. An Uggla a few rounds later?
Brandon Phillips (36.17) - The 50% GB doesn't bode well for return to 30 HR, and his CS was high in 2010. 20/20 maybe, but not more.
Neil Walker (321.74) - Young talent who will go unnoticed because he's in PIT. I could see a 20/10 year, so combined with bad-team anonymity, he's a great sleeper pick.
Gordon Beckham (218.22) - Second half is tempting to gamble on, but no guarantee here. Not sure he'll hit 20+ HR in 2011, but I'd take his upside over older, injury-risk guys.
Tier Three
Brian Roberts (128.04) - Injury to back may not affect his running (see second half 2010), but he's aging, and risk in health doesn't seem worth the possible 30 SB if healthy.
Howie Kendrick (226.15) - Will never be the AVG champion, but he's Polanco with a bit more HR/SB potential. AVG could easily bounce back to .290s, and 10/15 is serviceable.
Rickie Weeks (42.49)- Great ability, never healthy. I don't see the AB repeating, and drop in SB is worrisome. I see 20/10 at best, and that's if he's healthy. Be wary of bad AVG potential.
Chone Figgins (95.87) - Getting older, so I'm waiting for the SB to drop. In 5x5 he's got more value than this, but otherwise I'm not excited anymore.
Mike Aviles (172.81) - May play 3B in 2011, but I don't see Getz taking 2B from him. Kendrick potential with fewer R/RBI due to worse team.
Gambling Tier
Omar Infante (289.44) - Okay, he's likely the starter, but FLA, low HR/SB doesn't excite. More likely to increase SB numbers than HR, and AVG is likely to fall to .290-.300.
Sean Rodriguez (381.02) - With so many multi-position guys in TB, will he get enough AB? Power and speed enticing, but struggles could reduce playing time. Potential 15/20 if starter.
Jose Lopez ()- I like him if (big IF) he is full-time in COL, but Wigginton could affect that. Proven power potential, but not worth it in OBP leagues.
Danny Espinosa (395.27) - A power/speed guy who can hopefully get enough AB in WAS to matter to fantasy managers. The AVG might hurt, but 20/20 upside says gamble for MI slot.
Bill Hall ()- HOU claims he'll see most of the 2B starts? Hey, this late in the draft, a guy who could hit 15+ HR is worth a flier.
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Saturday, January 1
2011 Fantasy Baseball Rankings
Catcher Rankings
First Base Rankings
Second Base Rankings
Third Base Rankings
Short Stop Rankings
Outfielder Rankings
Starting Pitcher Rankings
Relief Pitcher Rankings
2011 Fantasy Baseball Cheat Sheet
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First Base Rankings
Second Base Rankings
Third Base Rankings
Short Stop Rankings
Outfielder Rankings
Starting Pitcher Rankings
Relief Pitcher Rankings
2011 Fantasy Baseball Cheat Sheet
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The Red Sox Rotation
See if you can match the stats to the starter for the Red Sox in 2010:
Pitcher A) K/9 9.74, xFIP 3.29
Pitcher B) K/9 8.18, xFIP 4.01
Pitcher C) K/9 6.53, xFIP 4.32
Pitcher D) K/9 6.22, xFIP 4.20
Does it help if I supply their fantasy value in 2010, according to baseballmonster.com?
Pitcher A) 4th round
Pitcher B) 75th round (whatever that means)
Pitcher C) 45th round
Pitcher D) 5th round
At this point you should be able to tell that these guys are Jon Lester, Josh Beckett, John Lackey, and Clay Buchholz respectively. The thing that jumps out at me the most in this group is the potential for significant incorrect valuations from a lot of managers going into 2011. Everybody knows by now that Jon Lester is an ace so don't expect him to slip but what about the other three?
Clay Buchholz already has a no hitter under his belt and last year posted such a strong season that there was talk of him being in the Cy Young mix. However, while seventeen wins and a 2.33 ERA might put you in that conversation a 6.22 K/9 and a 3.47 BB/9 probably won't get you back any time soon. Both the Fans and Bill James see a pretty good jump in K/9 next season and he's been adding velocity to both his fastball and slider so better K numbers are possible but he's still likely to be overvalued going into drafts. I would be hesitant about taking Clay as my third pitcher and I feel like that's the absolute latest he'll be going so feel free to just pass on him this Spring.
John Lackey put up interesting numbers last year, solid total innings but poor K/9 and BB/9 combined with high BABIP and low LOB%. His pitch profiles seemed in line with career numbers but players seemed to be making better contact with Lackey's out pitches, O-Swing was up a bit but O-Contact was up quite a bit. It's possible that players were able to foul off a lot more of his curve balls in '10 as it was the first year since 2003 that that pitch had a negative value for him. Maybe he's tipping? Whatever the reason, Lackey seems to be in decline so be careful drafting him, although he could provide some late round value if his K/9 creeps back up.
Josh Beckett is definitely the target for value on this list. His injury shortened '10 was marked by lots and lots of base runners, as evidenced the highest BABIP and lowest LOB% of his career. And a lot of those runners were getting some easy trips around the diamond as Beckett's HR/9 was the second highest of his career, despite the fact that his GB% was a respectable 45.8. His xFIP of 4.01 is certainly a red flag for a guy who has been known as an ace but just remember he went from a 4.39 xFIP in '06 to 3.43 in '07 so we know he's recovered from bad years before. Injury concerns are always an issue with Beckett but I'd be happy having him as my number two pitcher this year if I can get him at a discount.
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Pitcher A) K/9 9.74, xFIP 3.29
Pitcher B) K/9 8.18, xFIP 4.01
Pitcher C) K/9 6.53, xFIP 4.32
Pitcher D) K/9 6.22, xFIP 4.20
Does it help if I supply their fantasy value in 2010, according to baseballmonster.com?
Pitcher A) 4th round
Pitcher B) 75th round (whatever that means)
Pitcher C) 45th round
Pitcher D) 5th round
At this point you should be able to tell that these guys are Jon Lester, Josh Beckett, John Lackey, and Clay Buchholz respectively. The thing that jumps out at me the most in this group is the potential for significant incorrect valuations from a lot of managers going into 2011. Everybody knows by now that Jon Lester is an ace so don't expect him to slip but what about the other three?
Clay Buchholz already has a no hitter under his belt and last year posted such a strong season that there was talk of him being in the Cy Young mix. However, while seventeen wins and a 2.33 ERA might put you in that conversation a 6.22 K/9 and a 3.47 BB/9 probably won't get you back any time soon. Both the Fans and Bill James see a pretty good jump in K/9 next season and he's been adding velocity to both his fastball and slider so better K numbers are possible but he's still likely to be overvalued going into drafts. I would be hesitant about taking Clay as my third pitcher and I feel like that's the absolute latest he'll be going so feel free to just pass on him this Spring.
John Lackey put up interesting numbers last year, solid total innings but poor K/9 and BB/9 combined with high BABIP and low LOB%. His pitch profiles seemed in line with career numbers but players seemed to be making better contact with Lackey's out pitches, O-Swing was up a bit but O-Contact was up quite a bit. It's possible that players were able to foul off a lot more of his curve balls in '10 as it was the first year since 2003 that that pitch had a negative value for him. Maybe he's tipping? Whatever the reason, Lackey seems to be in decline so be careful drafting him, although he could provide some late round value if his K/9 creeps back up.
Josh Beckett is definitely the target for value on this list. His injury shortened '10 was marked by lots and lots of base runners, as evidenced the highest BABIP and lowest LOB% of his career. And a lot of those runners were getting some easy trips around the diamond as Beckett's HR/9 was the second highest of his career, despite the fact that his GB% was a respectable 45.8. His xFIP of 4.01 is certainly a red flag for a guy who has been known as an ace but just remember he went from a 4.39 xFIP in '06 to 3.43 in '07 so we know he's recovered from bad years before. Injury concerns are always an issue with Beckett but I'd be happy having him as my number two pitcher this year if I can get him at a discount.
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