Last night I participated in my first real auction draft of the season for the Blog Wars league hosted by MDS over at milliondollarsleeper.com. The league has some pretty stiff competition and last year I got smoked, finishing in second to last place, so this year I hope to make a better showing.
Going into the draft I had a plan to spend my pitching dollars mostly on good closers, as the best closers often go for $10-15 less than elite starters even though elite closers have a decent chance to approach the value of elite starters. Don't believe me? Of the top thirty pitchers in value at the end of the 2010 season twenty-two were starters and eight were closers. Elite starters are more likely to be more productive than elite closers but when elite starters are going for $30 and up the elite closers are the bargains. Another reason to focus on elite closers is that they are more reliable. Those eight closers mentioned above were Billy Wagner, Rafael Soriano, Heath Bell, Brian Wilson, Neftali Feliz, Carlos Marmol, Joakim Soria, and Mariano Rivera. In other words, you know what you're getting from a top closer and, just as important, you know who the top closers are, at least more reliably than you know who the top starters will be. That combination of value and certainty had me focusing on the guys listed above as well as Matt Thornton and John Axford.
For hitters I wanted to target Adrian Gonzalez and lock up two solid catchers. I achieved both goals but I didn't get as many values at other positions as I had hoped.
Here's the team:
C - Brian McCann $29
C - Mike Napoli $14
1B - Adrian Gonzalez $44
2B - Ryan Theriolt $1
SS - Yunel Escobar $9
3B - Michael Young $15
MI - Alex Gonzalez $1
CI - Derrek Lee $6
OF - Josh Hamilton $33
OF - Brett Gardner $14
OF - Juan Pierre $9
OF - Nate McLouth $5
OF - Domonic Brown $3
UTIL - Kila Ka'aihue $4
Bench - Josh Willingham $2
P - Brian Wilson $16
P - Francisco Rodriguez $13
P - Mat Latos $15
P - Josh Beckett $10
P - Joel Hanrahan $9
P - Brandon Beachy $3
P - Brett Myers $3
P - C.J. Wilson $3
P - Joel Pineiro $2
P - Travis Wood $2
Overall I'm pretty happy with my team. Josh Hamilton was a bit of a mistake as I was just trying to get the bidding going and for some reason thought he would go a lot higher than $33. Still, he could pay off if healthy. The rest of my offense is pretty polarized, a lot of two and three category guys but as a unit I'm optimistic about the production.
I was thrilled to get Latos and Beckett cheaply and I definitely hope that at least a couple of my cheap starters works out. My most frustrating moment was buying C.J. Wilson for $3 and then seeing James Shields go two picks later for the same price. Wilson is probably an immediate drop and I've been targeting Shields in all my drafts but couldn't pull the trigger here as I was almost out of money. Happily, this error fixed itself almost immediately as I was able to trade Kila for Shields this morning. I certainly like Kila's upside but I'm not sure about the batting average and Shields has shown excellent underlying stats.
My "elite closer" strategy was only somewhat successful as Wilson's injury appears to be minor but Francisco Rodriguez is a bit of a question mark, wish I'd gotten Axford for the same price. Hanrahan has the tools to be very good but we'll see whether he can put it together in Pittsburgh.
All in all I think my team could be sneaky good. I'm certainly worried about all the pieces fitting together properly on the offensive side but I think my pitching has a chance to surprise those who think that a staff led by Latos, Beckett, and Shields will be mired in the middle of the pack.
Fun times and sets me up well for my next and final draft of the season, tomorrow at 8:30 for the TradeBashers.com Bloggers Bash experts league.
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