Tier One:
Tim Lincecum (22.1) - A lot of people are picking Halladay first and they'd be right in real life, but in the fantasy world The Freak's K rate trumps Halladay's BB%.
Roy Halladay (14.8) - He's still really good, though.
Felix Hernandez (29.1) - No seasons under 190 IP since his rookie year, only one career season xFIP over 3.50.
Adam Wainwright (37.0) - I've always been skeptical of him, probably because of his pedestrian '07, but you can't argue with his success over the past two season.
Cliff Lee (37.2) - He'll always be better in real life than fantasy because of his style, solid K/9 and historic BB/9, but the switch to the National League should give him a nice boost.
Jon Lester (39.6) - Jon maintained his excellent K/9 last year while increasing his GB%. His BB/9 did creep up a bit but he still provides good value at his ADP.
Zack Greinke (49.1) - 2010 was a funny year for Grienke as his GB% was a career best but his K/9 dropped significantly. The jump to the NL puts him ahead of guys like Haren and CC.
Josh Johnson (65.6) - He does it all, including provide great value at his ADP.
Dan Haren (52.8) - Despite heading to the wrong league he's still one of my favorite aces.
Justin Verlander (64.6) - He's got a below average GB% but other than that his numbers are stellar and his durability is excellent.
Francisco Liriano (78.0) - If you believe he's back to '06 form Liriano could provide fantastic value at his current ADP.
Mat Latos (72.6) - Simply put, he posted elite stats last year. Even if you think he's due for regression just remember that he plays in pitcher heaven.
BOTTOM LINE - Whatever your philosophy on pitchers it makes sense to target Liriano, Johnson, Latos, or Verlander in the 5th or 6th round. They just provide too much value to be ignored.
Tier Two:
Cole Hamels (66.4) - He could easily have been in the group above with his excellent numbers across the board. Too bad about his home ballpark.
CC Sabathia (49.8) - Not a bad guy to have on your team but when you could get Johnson, Verlander, or Haren later in the draft CC's avoidable.
Yovani Gallardo (65.8) - His BB/9 has bounced around a bit but he should rack up the strikeouts.
Ubaldo Jimenez (42.3) - He was a monster in '10 but his BB/9 is just too high to expect another sub-3.00 ERA season. Heck, even sub 3.50 is probably optimistic.
Roy Oswalt (99.7) - Remember when Oswalt was awesome? Actually, "awesome" pretty much describes every year of his career except maybe '07, when his xFIP "ballooned" to 4.08, twenty points higher than any other year of his career.
Clayton Kershaw (51.3) - He plays in a great division for pitchers but can he continue to outperform his xFIP so handily?
Tommy Hanson (80.0) - Keep his K/9 from '09 and his BB/9 from '10 and he starts to look really, really good.
David Price (60.7) - He's headed in the right direction, rising K/9 and falling BB/9 in '10, but not yet the ace he might be considered by your league mates.
Josh Beckett (185.7) - Didn't see that one coming, did you? The K's are still there , 8.18/9 in '10, and you can expect last year's BB/9 (3.17) to regress down a bit.
James Shields (174.4) - And for my next trick...! Seriously, though, he's always had great control (2.00 career BB/9,) add in an 8.28 K/9 last year and you have a potential #2 fantasy pitcher.
Wandy Rodriguez (120.4) - He basically Josh Beckett in the NL, 8.22 K/9, 3.14 BB/9 last year.
Chad Billingsley (88.8) -Plays in a pitcher division and get good strikeouts.
Ryan Dempster (94.9) - Expect a K/9 above 8.00 and a decent GB%.
Max Scherzer (103.8) - Good K rate and middle of the road BB and GB rates are better than the opposite, at least for fantasy purposes.
Jered Weaver (54.2) - Career bests last year in all xFIP categories (K/9, BB/9, and GB%) certainly set the stage for a big ol' wallop from the regression stick for Mr. Weaver.
Tier Three
Dan Hudson (126.9) - Not a long MLB track record but he never put up less than a K an inning in the minors.
Jonathan Sanchez (148) - Control is an issue but excellent strikeout numbers (9.41 career) and a good division to pitch in make up for his flaws.
Brandon Morrow (130.1) - Since Northern Exposure he's done quite well for himself in the Majors. Expect a K rate well above 9 and take the walks with a grain of salt.
Colby Lewis (113.9) - He put up very solid K/9 (8.78) and BB/9 (2.91) in 2010. If he could combine those with his '06 GB% (58.3) he'd be great. What's that? He only pitched three innings in '06? Cherry-picking? Ok, I guess you're right. His GB% is poor and unlikely to improve.
Madison Bumgarner (143.5) - Don't expect excellent K numbers but his control is very good.
Chris Carpenter (88.6) - He's a great guy to draft if you already have a high K, high BB guy like Ubaldo. Carpenter should moderate your WHIP even if he doesn't blow away too many hitters.
Matt Cain (87.1) - It's hard to get too excited about a pitcher with a 7.44 career K/9 and a 36.3 GB%, though it helps that he's in the NL West, but if you believe in his low HR/FB% then go for it.
Tim Hudson (148.02) - It's too bad his K/9 will likely be below 6.00 because his control and GB% are excellent. Pair him with a high K high BB type.
Gavin Floyd (148.89) - Above average, if not spectacular, in all important categories.
Brett Anderson (182.54) - He's got great control so if his K/9 can creep up into the mid 7's he'll be a good value.
Gio Gonzalez (178.33) - Most projections see him improving his K/9 next year while keeping his 2010 BB/9. That would be good.
Brett Myers (165.44) - It's hard to draft an Astro but Myers should be above average in every xFIP category.
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