In this series, we look at players' average draft position and then argue why we think they will be better or worse than that.
In 2010, Andre Ethier and Justin Upton both suffered injuries and had arguably disappointing seasons after showing huge promise in 2009. Obviously these guys are still top-flight fantasy options for your team, and they're both going at the same time in drafts, with an ADP around 40. Which one's value is over the ADP, and which one is under it?
Andre Ethier busted a pinkie finger, causing him to miss time and lowering his counting stats. However, a look at his overall skill set shows a line very similar to his great 2009 campaign: his walk rate (10.5% in '09, 10.1% in '10) and SLG (.508, .493) had only minor dips, and his 2010 BABIP of .322 was more in line with his career (.318) and was certainly much better than his career low from 2009 (.289). He's maintained a LD% above 20% for the last three years, which bodes well for his BABIP and average. If he can ever solve his struggles against lefties, I think he's got another gear in there. Another 30 HR and 100 RBI season, this time with a better AVG, would not be a surprise. Ethier's ADP is 40, with his earliest pick at 29 and his latest at 56. I like the over on Ethier. You should feel comfortable taking him before 40 if you need a #1 or #2 OF.
Justin Upton suffered a small labrum tear in his shoulder, which forced him to miss September. In nearly the same number of plate appearances as 2009, his numbers were down across the board, though he did raise his walk rate to 11.2%. There's lots of tiny red flags in stats, which add up to a big red flag in my book. His .300 AVG doesn't seem repeatable, partly because '09 was a career low in K% (26%), and '10 (30.7%) went back near his career average (29.5%). Upton has a strong LD% like Ethier, around 19%, and his speed helps retain his high BABIP. Although people point to his injury as the reason for the power loss in the second half, it doesn't explain his slow start (.360 SLG in March/April). Upton posted three great months, but the season is seven months long. He's never played 140 games and has battled injuries for three years (strained left oblique in '08, strained right oblique in '09, labrum tear in '10). He's the Kinsler of the OF--plenty of talent but unable to play a full season. Upton's ADP is 40, with his earliest pick at 25 and his latest at 55. Take the under on Upton and let others worry about finding a replacement for their #1 OF when he goes down.
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