Take a look at these two stat lines.
Player A: .285, 70 R, 23 HR, 104 RBI
Player B: .288, 82 R, 26 HR, 93 RBI
Player B is slightly better, though in most leagues the difference is negligible. But what if we throw in the round ADP?
Player A: .285, 70 R, 23 HR, 104 RBI -- Round 9
Player B: .288, 82 R, 26 HR, 93 RBI -- Round 4
Would you take Player B five rounds before Player A? I sure wouldn't. Player A is Casey McGehee's 2010 stats. Player B is Adrian Beltre's 3-year average of 2007, 2008, and 2010 (throwing out his injury-shortened 2009). Obviously Beltre is a veteran, whereas McGehee has a little under two MLB seasons to his name. But considering Beltre's likely drop in 2011 and his ADP, it's clear that McGehee is the better value.
Beltre enjoyed another fine season--conveniently in another contract year. Even if you don't buy into the effect of contract year, consider this: the second-best AVG of his career was supported by a career best K% and a career best BABIP. This marks only the second time he's had a K% under 15% (his career mark sits at 17%), and his BABIP was 37 points better than his career mark, so it's safe to bet that his AVG will drop back to the .260-.270 range, which is where he'd been for the four years prior to 2010 (and five years ago, he hit .255).
Instead of picking up the aging veteran, go for the up-and-comer; though McGehee isn't young at 29, he's entering his third year with a secure hold on the hot corner. Milwaukee has a solid lineup around him, so the RBI should keep coming. His BABIP was league average in 2010 after being above it in 2009, and I think he'll maintain the .280 average. He improved his K% by over 2% in his second year, and although he lost a bit on his BB%, it was still respectable at 7.5%. The only red flag for me is the drop in FB (40% to 36%) and the increase in GB (38% to 47%), but his HR/FB didn't suffer much (13.6% to 12.5%). With only a slight rebound in FB%, a 25 HR year is attainable.
At the time of this post, Beltre's ADP is 49 at Mock Draft Central and 44 at Couch Managers. McGehee is 109 and 78, respectively. The difference between their draft averages is insane given Beltre's history of mediocrity boosted by a few stellar years. Save yourself a headache and take McGehee several rounds later, whose ADP value is leaps and bounds above Beltre's.
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