See if you can match the stats to the starter for the Red Sox in 2010:
Pitcher A) K/9 9.74, xFIP 3.29
Pitcher B) K/9 8.18, xFIP 4.01
Pitcher C) K/9 6.53, xFIP 4.32
Pitcher D) K/9 6.22, xFIP 4.20
Does it help if I supply their fantasy value in 2010, according to baseballmonster.com?
Pitcher A) 4th round
Pitcher B) 75th round (whatever that means)
Pitcher C) 45th round
Pitcher D) 5th round
At this point you should be able to tell that these guys are Jon Lester, Josh Beckett, John Lackey, and Clay Buchholz respectively. The thing that jumps out at me the most in this group is the potential for significant incorrect valuations from a lot of managers going into 2011. Everybody knows by now that Jon Lester is an ace so don't expect him to slip but what about the other three?
Clay Buchholz already has a no hitter under his belt and last year posted such a strong season that there was talk of him being in the Cy Young mix. However, while seventeen wins and a 2.33 ERA might put you in that conversation a 6.22 K/9 and a 3.47 BB/9 probably won't get you back any time soon. Both the Fans and Bill James see a pretty good jump in K/9 next season and he's been adding velocity to both his fastball and slider so better K numbers are possible but he's still likely to be overvalued going into drafts. I would be hesitant about taking Clay as my third pitcher and I feel like that's the absolute latest he'll be going so feel free to just pass on him this Spring.
John Lackey put up interesting numbers last year, solid total innings but poor K/9 and BB/9 combined with high BABIP and low LOB%. His pitch profiles seemed in line with career numbers but players seemed to be making better contact with Lackey's out pitches, O-Swing was up a bit but O-Contact was up quite a bit. It's possible that players were able to foul off a lot more of his curve balls in '10 as it was the first year since 2003 that that pitch had a negative value for him. Maybe he's tipping? Whatever the reason, Lackey seems to be in decline so be careful drafting him, although he could provide some late round value if his K/9 creeps back up.
Josh Beckett is definitely the target for value on this list. His injury shortened '10 was marked by lots and lots of base runners, as evidenced the highest BABIP and lowest LOB% of his career. And a lot of those runners were getting some easy trips around the diamond as Beckett's HR/9 was the second highest of his career, despite the fact that his GB% was a respectable 45.8. His xFIP of 4.01 is certainly a red flag for a guy who has been known as an ace but just remember he went from a 4.39 xFIP in '06 to 3.43 in '07 so we know he's recovered from bad years before. Injury concerns are always an issue with Beckett but I'd be happy having him as my number two pitcher this year if I can get him at a discount.
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