We received a reader email this week with an initial trade question. In a dynasty league should they offer Justin Upton and Andrew McCutchen for Troy Tulowitzki? I'll break down the players involved.
Justin Upton - After a breakout 2009 he took a step back in 2010 as his ISO dropped from .232 to .170. He plays in a tough division for power hitters as Colorado is the only park that inflates homers for right handers. Many thought he could turn into the 30+ home run outfielder, but in that division he's more like a 20-25 home run guy. He still has a few years to grow some strength, but it would be nice if he moved out of the NL West.
Andrew McCutchen - Here is someone who added some power last year and looks like a young Carl Crawford. He's not quite the steal threat who will break 50 steals, but 15/30 with slightly better on base skills is nice. The bad news is we are dealing with another hitter hitting in a home park not suited for their power. Pittsburgh hurts right handed home runs and perhaps he could be better in another park.
Troy Tulowitzki - We finally have a hitter in the right park. With a new contract in hand Tulo is in Colorado for a good time and we can look forward to 30 homers from him each season. Put that at the SS position and you have one of the best. He's only a step behind Hanley Ramirez in hitting and steals is the one that really separates them.
So is two very good and very young outfielders worth trading for the second best Short Stop in baseball? I would strongly consider this trade and if I could try to get the other team to add a chip then I would do it. 30/10 and 25/20 in the outfield is good, but can be replaced with players like Bobby Abreu, Hunter Pence or Drew Stubbs. On the other hand this power and speed at short stop is only found with Hanley in the #2 pick.
The same reader also asked for a quick comparison of Ryan Zimmerman and Evan Longoria. His question was if steals was the only difference between the two. I would say that would be the major difference and a few extra strikeouts for Longoria. According to Oliver projections (Hardball Times well worth the fee) these two are twins in HR, R, RBI. The difference is 6 steals in favor of Longoria and a 0.012 advantage in average for Zimmerman.
Based on that I can't see why I would pay the 7.1 ADP for Longoria right now with Zimmerman going at 25.0 right now. This is a clear case you can use to your advantage at draft time. Use your first round pick somewhere else and look at a late 2nd or early 3rd to scoop Zimmerman.
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