In a league like this, where possibly 120 players may be removed from the draft pool, locking up mid table selections with your keeper slots is key, but if your keeper selections end up eating into those first few rounds, you need to know when to pull the plug. In Billy's league, each keeper = one round selection, so 7 keepers mean you first 7 rounds are already used up.
K, HLD, ERA, WHIP, QS. Each team can keep 6-10 players and the draft starts after our keepers are taken. There are some perennial bottom feeders in the league that only keep 6 as they have no one worthy of keeping and hope to get 3-4 rounds of good picks. Otherwise most teams keep 9-10 players.
My sure keepers are Brian McCann, David Wright, Andrew McCutchen and Adam Dunn.
I am debating between the following
Pedro Alvarez
Travis Snider
Roy Oswalt
Max Scherzer
Stephen Strasburg
Neftali Feliz
Jhoulys Chacin
Due to the number of keepers in the league pickings get slim quick. Even outfield gets shallow quick and that is why I am tempted to keep Snider.
As for Alvarez, I know I have Wright but Alvarez is so young and if I don't keep him and he lives up to the hype I would be upset I didn't keep him.
Chacin does not stand out on anyone's keeper radar but I tend to trust pitcher that throw a lot of Ks.
Strasburg likely will not play this year but there is no limit on the length of time we can hold onto a keeper. If he comes back as good as he left, I feel I should keep him.
Feliz is a RP and I usually don't keep them, but he is a dang good RP and there is still a chance he could move to SP.
Then there is the question of whether I should just keep 8-9 and look for a good early pick as others are keeping 10.
Other players on my team include
Ben Zobrist
Ian Desmond
Rajai Davis
Brian Roberts
Adam Lind
Gio Gonzalez
Ervin Santana
Kind of a mess, but with savy managing I actually finished second with this team last year. I just don't want to keep someone I absolutely shouldn't or not keep someone I am overlooking.
Billy, I'd add the following players to your "sure things"
Pedro Alvarez
Roy Oswalt
Players with upside on decent clubs, or young players you think have a chance to make the leap that probably won't be re-draftable, should 100% be locked up. Alvarez is especially important because it'll give you some leverage during the season. I notice you really lack middle infield.. Alvarez or Wright can be used to fix that hole. While both players' ADPs exceeded that first 72 slots (Alvarez at 82, Oswalt at 99), they probably are your two best remaining players, so you'll need to bite the bullet on them.
That gets us to 6 players. Let's find you some more.
Everyone else you've listed is well under the current ADP of 72, except for Feliz (109) and Scherzer (106). These are the next two players I'd think about, as they may not be re-draftable.
With Frank Francisco getting traded, odds are Feliz is staying in the bullpen. However, Texas wrote the other day they are still stretching him out, so I'm not sure if this is something that may be worth a 7th or 8th round pick. Scherzer, however, is a different story, and his selection will depend on your league mates. If you think enough managers can see the upside he has, I'd consider holding onto him.
Still, I'm not really a fan of his upside as much as most people for a 7th round selection. You should be able to redraft players like Tommy Hanson here.
This keeper system is quite interesting. While it helps you lock up some elite players early, reaching into round 6-10 can be daunting because no teams really hold onto such immense amounts of talent so that those last 4 keeper spots get crazy value.
For comparisons, I checked into the local league Troy and I play in and checked to see how our league may hold onto players using this same system. Here's what I came up with. I'm going to try and rank the players kept as well, this way you can see how the 4th or 5th player kept stacks up to Rounds 4 and 5.
Lee (8) - Joey Votto, Carlos Gonzales, Chase Utley, Jose Reyes, Andre Ethier, Zack Grienke, Jay Bruce, Tommy Hanson
Bruce is the only real question mark, as his ADP of 80 is roughly a late 7, but his inclusion helps keep Hanson at a good price. I also have Brett Anderson and would probably consider keeping him because of my man crush on him, but also because with a late enough pick in Round 10, I bet I could draft him. If push came to shove, he'd be my 9th keeper. (Yes, I won the league this year)
Troy (7) - Tulo, Wright, McCutchen, Heyward, Latos, Oswalt, Carlos Santana
Troy had an injury plagued year, but still had a good group of young guys. Obviously Latos and Santana are early for their slots but have HUGE upside.
2nd Place Team (8) - Pujols, Hanley, Cliff Lee, Uggla, CC, Hamels, Morneau, Marcum
Now, this team looks crazy stacked, but our keeper system allows for very elite players to move frequently (that's how he has Pujols and Hanley and has had Cliff lee for 4 years now). but still, even with all those players, there's no young upside to hold onto, so his team is bare after 8.
3rd Place Team (6) - Hamilton, Choo, Felix Hernandez, David Price, Hellickson, Daniel Hudson
So, this team is the team that used to have both Albert Pujols and Adrian Gonzales, thought he was out of it, and traded them for keepers for next year (Choo in Round 14, Price in Round 9). Then his team blew up and he finished short on offense. Whoops.
However, this was the example I was looking for. Under no circumstances are Hudson and Hellickson worth picks in Rounds 5 and 6, but when you have to select players to fill these spots, these guys are better bets than aging vets on his team like Paul Konerko. When you very severly go above your Round slot, it should be for big impact potential like Hellickson and Hudson.
All that sad, I don't see too much young potential waiting to explode on your team after Alvarez and Oswalt. I think you'd do much better keeping the minimum 6 and trying to steal these types of player in the early part of the draft. Guys like Brett Anderson, Tommy Hanson (if available), Scherzer (who I bet you'll get cheaper then where you'd have to keep him), and these budding #2 outfielders waiting to make the leap like Rasmus and Bruce who may not be flashy enough to be kept.
So, my final call would be six. Brian McCann, David Wright, Andrew McCutchen, Adam Dunn, Pedro Alvarez, and Roy Oswalt. Feliz becomes #7 if they guarantee his closer job before you announce keepers. But as of right now? They are stretching him out, so I say no.
I think Snider and Scherzer are risky enough to try and redraft them. Even if you are a big Snider fan (like me) his ADP is so high (275) that'll you'll only miss out on him ebcause someone in your league is seeing us talk him up!
It stinks the Strasburg gamble didn't work for you this year, else he would have been an easy call for #7. Hopefully you can redraft him cheaply.
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