I'm having a terrible time with my keepers this year. I feel that I have several good keeper options, but not many great options.Andrew,
This is a 12 team, mixed, 5x5 league. Budget is $260, can keep up to 6 players. Drafted players can be kept for 3 total seasons. Below are the players, their 2011 salary and the # of years I can keep them:Ryan Zimmerman, $16, 1 year (2011 only)
Pedro Alvarez, $1, 2 years (2011 and 2012 seasons)
Drew Stubbs, $7, 2 years
Ike Davis, $1, 1 year
I think the above four are pretty much set, but here is where it gets complicated:
David Price, $10, 1 year
Choo, $22, 2 years
Wieters, $9, 1 year
Eric Young Jr, $3, 2 years
Angel Pagan, $1, 1 year
Mark Reynolds $9, 1 year
Alex Gonzalez, $1, 1 year
Niemann, $7, 2 years
Cueto, $3, 2 years
Domonic Brown, $1, 1 year
Mike Minor, $1, 1 year
Hellickson, $1, 1 year
Chapman, $3, 2 years
Borbon, $17, 2 years
Coghlan, $14, 2 years
Markakis, $22, 2 years
Brett Wallace, $1, 1 year
Arrieta, $1, 1 year
Leake, $1, 1 year
Anything on this list stick out for your? Once I was out of it last year, I picked up tons of young guys. They'd be great keepers if I could hold onto them for a couple years, but unfortunately I can only have them for the 2011 season.
First things first: Zimmerman, Alvarez and Stubbs are all solid plays for their prices, and you are right that they are unquestionable locks. I'm not so sure about Ike Davis though. While it's only $1, First basemen in the mold of Davis should still be available on draft day, and at that price. If you're short on keepers though, a cheap $1 backup plan as your bench option/CI is decent enough.
As for the others, let's look at the more expensive players first that are close to $10 or higher.
Reynolds - $9, 1 Year
Can $9 normally buy you 35 homeruns? I think you'd be hard-pressed to find this kind of power this cheap on draft day. While Reynolds obviously has one giant sinkhole category (AVG), luckily it's only AVG, a category you really only need to shoot for a high 270 total to be comfortable. Reynolds should still go for around $15 this season, so it's not a bad return for one more year.
One thing I like about Reynolds for your team? Zimmerman, Reynolds, and Alvarez means once you purchase one guy for first, you're pretty much set at 1B/3B/CI/U. This will let you pour a ton of money into an elite outfielder.
Reynolds keeper value: B-
Price - $10, 1 Year
David Price will definitely be expensive on draft day, probably to the tune of $20-$25. $10 for one more year seems perfectly fair, although do temper your expectations for his results. I'd expect his K rate to hold steady, but his ERA won't be as favorable this year. Will he be worth $25? Probably not. He'll probably end up being a solid #2 guy instead of the ace he was last year. That is definitely worth $10.
Price keeper value: B+
Shin-Soo Choo - $22, 2 Years
My problem with Choo is that I think he suffers from Nick Markakitis: A much better real lfie baseball player than fantasy. I think similar talent exists for the price, so I'm not sure if the two to five dollars you might save is worth it. Choo's going early in draft league also, and I really don't want to spend a high pick or a decent chunk of an auction price for a player who barely scrapes 20/20. I'd rather spend it on a guy like McCutchen, who should be 15/30 with an outside shot for 20/40.
I also wouldn't be surprised if Choo ends up being overvalued on draft day. Sometimes getting another player to spend an extra $10 than he should is just as valuable for your team.
However, you do control him for 2 years. The $22 price range is definitely more valuable than Markakis' $22.
Are you getting Choo for a bargain? No. Do we really think Choo has a shot at 30/30? No. I'm not going to judge him harshly, but I also think if I did keep Choo, I would definitely consider trying to trade him. I would personally cut bait and try to make some big plays in the auction, but I'm not going to let my bravado bias his value as a reliable 20/20 player.
Choo keeper value: B
Wieters - $9, 1 Year
Matt Wieters failed to live up to hype last year and is now being looked at as some weird pariah among fantasy cricles. Since again, like Choo, he's only here for 1 more year at most, I'd say toss him back in and try and redraft him. I think many leagues will be able to draft Wieters cheaply, and he'll be the best bang for your buck catcher out there.
Wieters keeper value: C+
Next, let's look at the $1 players you have. There's a bunch so I'll limit it to good selections and guys I feel like we should talk about.
Jeremy Hellickson and Domonic Brown, $1, 1 Year
If you had any additional years on these two players, I would immediately tell you they are both locks.
Well, I still think they are great selections, mainly Hellickson. High K/9, excellent K/BB rate, but suspect ground ball rate. That's the only thing that gives me the willies, especially in Tampa where a lack of ground balls suddenly make you homer happy (Yes, James Shields, I'm talking to you). I think Hellickson is primed for big things, and even though you'll only have him one year, I wouldn't be surprised in you get Brett Anderson's 2009 season out of him.
As for Domonic Brown, this is one pick I will let my bias creep into since it's only a one year gig. I don't think he's shown enough at the minor leagues to warrant a selection for only one more season. If you could have held onto him for at least 2 years, I would say absolutely. I'm guessing you'll see Brown strike out a ton this year, steal a lot of bases... and not much else. I don't quite like his upside for 2011 the way I like Hellickson's. I like Brown's chances in 2012 much better. if you're willing to sit on Brown all season and waste the dollar, it is only one dollar, but with only 6 keepers, I'm thinking you won't have the room.
Hellickson keeper value: A-, Brown: B-
I didn't really consider anyone else on your team worth another look, so let's line them up.
Zimmerman - $16, 2011 (A)
Pedro Alvarez - $1, 2011-2012 (A)
Drew Stubbs - $7, 2011-2012
Ike Davis - $1, 2011
Jeremy Hellickson - $1, 2011 (A-)
David Price - $10, 2011 (B+)
Shin-Soo Choo - $22, 2011-2012 (B)
Mark Reynolds - $9, 2011 (B-)
Domonic Brown - $1, 2011 (B-)
Matt Wieters - $9, 2011 (C+)
So, I didn't rank Stubbs and Davis yet. Davis is really the only piece I think isn't worth it, especially when you're sitting on Mark Reynolds for $9. My recommendations would be as follows:
Option 1. Zimmerman, Alvarez, Stubbs, Reynolds, Price, Hellickson. If many of the elite outfielders are available, I like this setup as you have a lot of cover at 3B/CI. This will let you spend big money on the outfielders I really value, like Kemp, Crawford, and Braun - all of which are now old enough that I doubt they'll be under contract and probably in the auction pool. Price and Hellickson anchor a very cheap but effective starting pair.
Option 2. Zimmerman, Alvarez, Stubbs, Price, Hellickson, Choo. If you think many of the top tier outfielders are getting kept, going this route will let you spend a good portion of your budget on an elite 1B, as none of them were probably signed to an affordable keeper contract except for Votto.
In a vacuum, I think I prefer the first option, partly because I think the $13 difference between Reynolds and Choo means I can really spend on truly elite OF, and partly because I'm not not [i]excited[/i] by Choo's fantasy ceiling. I think either option is viable dependent upon how you think your league's keepers shake out.
If you have an idea on who you think should be available, feel free to send it along and we can tweak my theory. Thanks for writing!
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