I play in a 12 team keeper league (AL/NL 5x5 roto) where we can keep 5 guys and I'd appreciate some advice. Its a snake draft and we can keep them 3 rounds ahead of where they were drafted/kept the year previous (and can only be kept 3 years in a row). Players who were undrafted and later picked up as free agents count as though they were drafted in the last round.Disclaimer: Since I only see 22 possible rounds, this looks like a Yahoo-standard league (3 OF, 2U). I'll adjust my selection according to that. If I'm wrong, feel free to comment about what the format is and I'll gladly update.
Here's who I'm considering (with their round eligibility in parentheses). I've noted the players who I would be keeping a 2nd time:
Carlos Santana (22nd)
Ubaldo Jimenez (11th, second year kept)
Dan Hudson (22nd)
Martin Prado (22nd)
Aubrey Huff (22nd)
Alex Rios (7th)
Brandon Morrow (22nd)
Colby Rasmus (15th, second year kept)
Eric Young Jr (22nd)
Mike Aviles (22nd)
Santana and Jimenez seem like no brainers. Huff and Prado have the biggest gap between ADP and keeper round but neither are very exciting to me. There's a lot of guys in there whose potential I like but it's tough to gauge who to roll with.
Chris, I absolutely agree Santana and Ubaldo are no-brainers at their current value. Just make sure you temper your expectation about Ubaldo this year. Much like managers weighing on keeping David Price with a mid round pick, Ubaldo's high walk rate (3.74), fortunate home run rate (5.1%), and slightly favorable BABIP (.273) all point to that 2.88 ERA being lucky. While Ubaldo's xFIP wasn't bad, my 2011 projection for him is closer to his 2009 than his 2010.
Carlos Santana, at Round 22, is might be the best low risk high reward candidate you could imagine at that price. I'm comfortable drafting him straight up at half that value. Make sure he's on your roster 3 full years.
After those two players, I think you have multiple options. I'll touch on the players I'd consider.
- Brandon Morrow (22nd)
I think you can easily include Morrow as your first selection after Santana and Ubaldo. For all starting pitchers that threw at least 140 innings, Morrow ranks among them as:
xFIP (3.63) - 14th, above players like Verlander, Ubaldo, and Dan Haren
K/9 (10.63) - 1st. Yes. You heard me right. Higher than Lincecum.
K/BB (2.70) - 33rd, above both Yovani Gallardo and CC Sabathia
In my opinion, Morrow was one of the "unluckiest" pitchers of 2010, with an ERA-FIP of 1.33; the highest in the majors. This spells breakout to me, and the possibility you've got a #3 starter in a 12 team league as your last pick of the draft? Yes please.
What's Morrow's only knock? His ADP is about 216. Still, a 22nd round pick is nothing, and if it presents a way for you to lock up a sleeper without blinking, it's worth it.
Want a bold prediction? Morrow will out perform Trevor Cahill, Daniel Hudson, Jeremy Hellickson and Cueto in 2011.
Overall Grade for Morrow: A-
- Colby Rasmus (15th)
Colby should be locked into your 4th keeper spot. An underrated selection who's currently being selected around the beginning of the 8th round (95.85), Rasmus took big strides last year improving his walk rate and his power Rasmus hits a ton of fly balls, so he shouldn't have a problem getting to 25-30 home runs. The strikeout rate is a tad worrisome, but that's' also going to be expected with some growing power. A 15th round selection for what should be a solid #3 OF looks great to me. Dependent upon where he hits, Rasmus may get all the hittable pitches you won't see Pujols get this year.
Overall Grade for Rasmus: B
- Aubrey Huff (22nd).
Huff's had a strange career, hasn't he? Excellent from 2002-2004, then regressed for a few years, then up again 2008, then a giant nose dive in 2009 before rebounding again this year. I think the Bill James outlook for him is pretty spot on. A solid .800 OPS and just scratching 20 home runs. Like you said, he's not flashy, but he's a decent bench solution. is that worth burning a keeper on? I think if 1B looks rather thin, Huff might warrant a decent insurance pick, but I can't see him cracking your starting 1B/OF/U lineups.
Overall Grade for Huff: C-
- Martin Prado (22nd).
Prado is currently being drafted at the end of the 6th round, with an ADP of 74.72. While his AVG looks to be legit (his BABIP is supported by a consistent 19-20 LD%), there are two things you should consider with Prado. First, with 2B being very power heavy this year, are you willing to take a risk locking this position up with a player who really isn't going to hit 20 home runs, or steal double digit bases? I don't anticipate, nor have any evidence of, a power spike in 2011. Prado offers managers some great things, but he doesn't do them often enough. He's probably the perfect utility player when your regular guys go down, but I can't see him anchoring a position. One possible Prado consideration? If your league has been running long enough where classic Top 20 talents are always redraftable, Prado could be a great selection is you are picking 2nd, and can guarantee yourself Hanley Ramirez. I'm very much a fan of punting SS this year unless you can draft Hanley at #2.
Overall Grade for Prado: C, C+ if you're picking 2nd with Hanley available.
Mike Aviles (22nd)
Just like last year, I'm punting SS. After Hanley, I'm not really keen on selecting any. I could be talked into Tulo if he creeps down to the end of the 1st round, but I think my comfort zone relies more on ignoring SS completely for steals unless I think I have a shot at Hanley's 30/30.
Aviles isn't going to get you much either, optimistic lines would say a 10/15 year with a 300+ average. Is that worth a 22nd rounder? It's still twice the value (his ADP is about 160), and would let you completely ignore SS in the draft.
Overall Grade for Aviles: C
Daniel Hudson (22nd)
Hudson is quickly shooting up draft boards, averaging the 204th selection but going as high as 110! His 22nd round value may not seem as great as Prado or Aviles because of his high ADP, but Hudson has some great things to consider.
Hudson struggled in his short time with the White Sox, but quickly became a solid rotation piece on Arizona, with his 3.11 K/BB leading the charge. He may not have the upside that Hellickson, Phil Hughes, or Brandon Morrow has, but Hudson looks to be a much better value than the cagey mid-draft veterans like Kuroda, the high K, high BB pitchers like Jonathan Sanchez or Jorge De La Rosa, or over-hyped big names like AJ Burnett.
Hudson should be a solid #4 in your rotation, and I think he's definitely worth a look.
Overall Grade for Dan Hudson: B
In summary:
Carlos Santana: A
Ubaldo Jimenez: A-
Brandon Morrow A-
Colby Rasmus: B
Dan Hudson: B
Martin Prado: C/C-
Mike Aviles: C
Aubrey Huff: C-
Those top 5 selections look pretty easy to me. While I don't normally suggest chasing starters early, you might benefit from (depending upon your draft position) one early SP like Lincecum, Halladay, Hernanez, or Lester, and then ignoring starters completely until past Round 10. You have enough sneaky value in SP with Morrow and Hudson to support this. I honestly wouldn't suggest more than 2 starters drafted by Round 10-12. I don't think you need it, especially if you land a Top 40 starter for a good price.
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