Tier One
Evan Longoria - His drop from 33 HR in '09 to 22 last year is probably less predictive than his jump in Steals from 9 to 15. (ADP 4.99)
David Wright - He may have slightly more upside in Steals and BA than Longoria but '10 saw his SB% drop all the way to 63%. Combined with his power outage in '09 and he's just a bit too risky to be the top option at the hot corner. (ADP 9.94)
Kevin Youkilis - The only thing keeping Youk out of the top two is his "speed." In OBP leagues consider him ahead of Wright if you're looking to avoid risk. (31.94)
Alex Rodriguez - Still a good option but he's not the fantasy god he once was. Managers seem to be picking him early in the second round which may be optimistic if he can't find his wheels (just 7 stolen base attempts in '10, four successful.) (ADP 15.81)
Ryan Zimmermann - I was going to write "A cheaper version of Kevin Youkilis," but Zimmermann is going around a half dozen picks earlier in mock drafts. While I guess Zimm might have more breakout potential than Youk he also has a shorter track record, a lower ISO, and a lower BB%. (ADP 21.4)
Tier 2
Jose Bautista - Obviously he has huge power upside but will he really be able to maintain his huge jump in production? Even if he doesn't his solid BB% and rising steals are a good sign. (ADP 54.33)
Mark Reynolds - Mark Reynolds was a kingmaker in '09 and a friend to no one in '10. He's still got 35+ HR in his bat and any steals are a bonus. Capitalize on those manager who misunderstand BABIP who think Reynolds will continue to work South of the Mendoza line and realize that you can live with a .230-.240 BA. (ADP 136.93)
Adrian Beltre - Beltre should be a good hitter in Texas but expecting a BA North of .300 is wishful thinking. (ADP 51.80)
Pedro Alvarez - I'm a bit worried about his low GB% last year but a HR total in the mid twenties is a reasonable expectation. (ADP 86.45)
Michael Young - He sneaks into this tier for three reasons; durability, BA, and home ballpark. Watch out for a decline fueled by DH-ing, age, or both. (ADP 76.67)
Tier 3
Aramis Ramirez - Despite seeming to be on the decline for the past decade Ramirez still carries fantasy relevance. He maintained an ISO over .200 last year although he also suffered a BABIP more than forty points below his career mark. He'll fall off the table soon, though, so draft him with caution. (ADP 105.78)
Casey McGehee - After a hot start last year McGehee cooled off in the hot Summer. Count on a score or so of HR's and a decent BA. (ADP 109.84)
Ian Stewart - His power dropped a bit last year but he could still put up a HR total in the mid to high twenties if everything comes together juuuust right. (ADP 118.15)
Pablo Sandoval - Speaking of power outages what happened to the Panda? Nothing jumps out from his swing data or batted ball percentages so it seems likely that his true skills are somewhere between what he showed in '09 and '10. That would come out to a HR total in the high teens and a decent BA perhaps approaching .300. (ADP 151.06)
Chipper Jones - A healthy Jones should provide close to twenty HR's and hopefully a decent BA. In OBP leagues he might actually be fun to use. Hilariously, the Fans project Jones to steal eleven bases in '10, which would be his highest total since '00. (ADP 181.76)
Gambling Tier
Scott Rolen - Rolen's power showed up in '10 for the first time since '06 but he does have the potential to be a 20/80/80/.280 kind of player. Think Chipper Jones without the on-base skills and with all of the age/injury worry. (ADP 171.96)
Edwin Encarnacion - Encarnacion has decent power and should be able to best his .238 '10 BABIP but "Excitement" is not his middle name, which is too bad. (ADP 268.84)
Chase Headley - Headley is an interesting option for those who need steals late in the draft. He seems to have decided to build steals into his game going from four in '08 to 10 in '09 to 17 in '10. Getting more than a dozen HR's might be a struggle but if he has a good year 15/20 isn't out of the question. (ADP 234.72)
Miguel Tejada - Although his moderate power plays better at SS, Tejada could be a good safety pick for a manager who drafts a risky left side of the infield. (ADP 204.15)
Chris Johnson - Don't bet on another .300+ BA, note the .387 BABIP in '09, but his power is decent. (ADP 229.96)
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