I decided to tackle first base. Why? It's one of the more interesting position collections in 2011. Much like the debate surrounding 2010's players at third base (that I believe threw everyone for a loop), I expect first base to have some similar drama. Finding out where is going to be interesting.
Like almost all of my articles this year, I'm going to pay special attention to the current ADP of players, as the "Tier" I place them in may not necessarily be in line with their current ADPs. Also, while the order within each Tier is 100% flexable, it is my recommended "gun to the head" selection order.
Tier Zero
Albert Pujols - I think it's time to finally stop debating who can or should go first in almost every draft format. The great thing about Albert is that he's consistent. Even if he ends up being the #2 or #3 overall player (or even first basemen), you're never going to get yourself into a spot where you draft him and have him fall apart like a cheap suit.* Albert should always be the safe consensus in every draft. (ADP - 1.11)
* Disclaimer: Injuries don't apply. You take that risk with every player.
Tier One
Adrian Gonzalez - You'll see one of two things happen in drafts this year concerning Adrian Gonzalez. For all leagues within spitting distance of New York and Boston, Adrian's ADP is going to skyrocket up draft boards. For the other "East Coast Bias" haters, I bet you'll see the opposite. It's the only way I can currently explain Gonzalez having such a huge standard deviation of his ADP (He can go as late as 27. What?)
As a Red Sox fan, I do my best to not be biased, but try this on for size. Let's assume, instead of trying to dream up some "Fenway Inflation" that Adrian will just even out his production to be inline with his "Away" splits. His sOPS+ in 2010 away from Petco was 172.
Do you know who's career OPS+ is 170? Albert Pujols. I'll just leave that one there. (ADP - 8.79)
Joey Votto - I rode Votto last year to a championship, snagging him with the equivalent of a 4th round selection in my local keeper league. Votto does everything right. He gets on base, he can run, and he hits for power. He's probably the most "complete" first basemen after Pujols. (ADP - 7.17)
Miguel Cabrera - Cabrera has settled into a great groove in Detroit and over the past three years has been the most consistent typical first basement not named Albert Pujols. This may finally be the year he doesn't somehow creep into the late 1st round, unfortunate that you won't be able to get him for a bargain this time around. (ADP - 3.19)
Tier Two
Mark Teixeira - Later, when I go through ADP a little more in depth at certain positions, I'll remind you how Teixeira is going to be 2011's version of 2010 Miguel Cabrera. Mark had a horrific start to the beginning of 2010, and still had better numbers than Ryan Howard, and as always, managed to get on base more. There's one less year and 25 less pounds he's carrying around as well. (ADP - 13.14)
Prince Fielder - Pick any non-SABR reason you like. Trade bait, contract year, etc. This all amount to Fielder proving 2010 was just a blip, like his teammate Ryan Braun. (ADP - 21.79)
Ryan Howard - Ryan Howard fans shouldn't take this the wrong way; it's not that I dislike Howard, I just don't put that much stock in the lofty RBI totals being maintained every year. With Rollins on the decline, Victorino still struggling with his OBP, and Howard and Utley both starting to age a bit, I've become more bearish on him. Unless he comes at a great bargain, I let someone else pay for him. (ADP - 15.67)
Tier Three
The next two players both have one fatal non-SB category flaw, which keeps them just a step behind the previous two tiers of players. Tier Three may actually be the most efficient Tier for your selection considering ADPs, if you miss out on the first four players.
Adam Dunn - Dunn is an interesting selection this year as well, and a borderline Tier 2/3. The move to Comerica is favorable to his game, and finally spending full time as a DH should let him focus solely on his performance at the plate. Unfortunately, we've also lost his OF flexibility (and probably 1B in 2012). A betting man should bank on another 40 HRs for Dunn and the outside potential that he's finally on a team where his R and RBI totals won't suffer. His AVG is always a problem, but I could finally see Dunn be able to establish some mainstream recognition for his yearly Ryan Howard impersonation. OBP leagues can move Dunn up into the middle of Tier 2. (ADP - 52.19)
Kevin Youkilis (as 1B) - I dropped Youk in here in case you're forced to play him at first. Obviously, he's much more valuable with his impending 3B tag. Still, if he has to slide into this spot, he's easily considered the last of the elite options. You'll still keep your fingers crossed for 30 homers, which is what keeps him out of that second tier if he's considered a first baseman, Like Dunn, OBPs leagues should quickly move him up. (ADP - 36.45)
Tier Four
Otherwise known as the 30/100 club, these players should be safe locks to challenge for 30 homeruns, and barely scraping close to 100 R and RBI, but either got side tracked by injury, had a 2010 bounce back year, or don't offer much other potential. They don't quite have the upside of the previous tiers, but are safe mid-game plays. Billy Butler enters the bottom of this tier, with an outside shot to finally show us his power.
Kendry Morales (ADP - 65.24)
Justin Morneau (ADP - 49.71)
Paul Konerko (ADP - 73.21)
Billy Butler (ADP - 84.45)
Gambling Tier
Whether it's rookie status or age, the following players are still worth a gamble later in the draft, either to comfortably fill your CI slot, or as a late game steal.
Carlos Lee - I've never quite been a fan, even with his excellent lack of strikeouts. Lee is at best a low 800 OPS player, and last year's horrific OBP doesn't give me any warm fuzzies. He mainly qualifies at OF, but 20 games at 1B last year gives him this spot as well. (ADP -124.49)
Aubrey Huff, Adam LaRoche - Huff and LaRoche have quietly put up similar season the past 3 years, and LaRoche may finally be getting a real shot with Washington. (ADPs - 108.43, 174.31)
Carlos Pena - Adam Dunn-lite makes his way to the Friendly Confines, which should be friendly enough for his power. Pena's plummeting AVG should be scaring off H2H managers, while OBP leagues can feel a little safer with his respectable plate discipline. Pena's always been a slave to his BABIP, and that 44.9 GB% gives me nightmares. (ADP - 165.07)
Derrek Lee - Had a bit of a resurgence the second half of 09 but struggled most of last year. Homer-happy ballparks in the AL East might help him creep back to 25 homeruns. (ADP 212.88)
Justin Smoak - The only real rookie power option coming out of the start of 2011, it may be worth to wait and see how much of an issue Safeco is turning out to be. (ADP - 238.85)
Gaby Sanchez, Ike Davis, James Loney - The "1B club with mediocre power" should only be late-game plays to even out your rosters. (ADPs - 182.72, 189.99, 206.11)
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