The Cubs have traded a slew of prospects for Rays starter Matt Garza. Let's take a look at how this affects his stats and fantasy value.
The first thing most people state is that moving to the National League will immediately help a starter's ERA and WHIP. I won't get dragged into that argument, but the big issue that sticks out at me: Garza is a flyball pitcher who is moving from one of the pitcher-friendliest AL parks over the last three years. Bill James' Ballpark Index shows Tropicana Field was tied for the second-worst park at creating runs, and it was ranked 7th of 14 AL parks in HR. Take a look at Wrigley Field, and it's the opposite: it was ranked 2nd in runs and 4th in HR. Put flyball-happy Garza in a smaller home field with the wind blowing out, and I cringe at how his ERA could rise. It will take that "NL bonus" of facing pitchers for Garza's ERA and WHIP to stay where it is, but my guess is his ERA will rise over 4.15 even if his WHIP holds steady.
Next, let's look at his strikeouts and walks. Garza's BB/9 was 2.8, the best of his career and a drop of 0.7 from 2009, but he also saw his K/9 fall from a career best (8.4) to 6.6. I'm happy when a pitcher can maintain a 2.0+ K/BB ratio (and Garza has done that the last three years), but for fantasy purposes a 6.6 K/9 is only okay. To really impress (and to be worth the possible hype of his changing leagues), he needs to regain some K/9 and keep his BB/9 where it is. My guess is that 2009's K/9 rate is an outlier, though with the pitchers hitting in the NL, maybe he'll flirt with a 7.0.
I wish I had some positive outlook to give you, but everything I check over the last three years makes me worry more. His FIP and xFIP were a career high in 2010, and his HR/9 has steadily increased. His BABIP has been consistently below league average, but with everything else seeming to sour, I plan on it rising at least some. And let's not forget that the Cubs were far from the league lead in scoring runs for their pitchers (18th overall compared to the Rays' 4th), so for those who like to pretend win totals are predictable, Garza's wins are likely to drop.
Both as a Cubs fan and as a fantasy manager, I'm not impressed with the Garza trade. The Cubs aren't going to gain the #2 type starter they want. Instead, he's going to fit right in with our #3-#5 guys, becoming nothing special in the National League. Don't get excited about Garza's potential in 2011, and certainly don't bump him up in your draft prep rankings. If anything, I'd knock him down a notch.
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