In these DTNT columns, the goal is to get you to analyze and pick the best value between two similar players. Sometimes it involves a player who will outperform the other based on probable draft value. Sometimes it’s a comparison of two players who struggled or who had a big year.
Go back five years, and Jimmy Rollins and Rafael Furcal were top-5 SS. What's happened since then? Furcal had a string of injury-plagued years, and Rollins continued his dominance with a few hiccups (huge drop in HR in '08, huge drop in AVG in '09), then suffered injuries in '10 and continued his dropping AVG trend. So what about 2011?
Let me start off by saying that I think Rollins has more upside remaining at this point in his career. He's shown more power than Furcal, and he's been a safe bet for 30+ SB if healthy. However, the issue lies in ADP value. You can't deny that Rollins is a risk, even if he's finally fallen out of the top-30 players. The batting average trend is worrisome, and I don't see him getting back over .280 even if healthy; at this point, .275 might be a stretch. Because SS is thin this year, a lot of people are still gambling on him as the #3 or #4 guy at the position. I hate drafting known injury risks (and declining stats) early in the draft. If I'm going to pass on the top three (Hanley Ramirez, Troy Tulowitzki, and Jose Reyes), then I'm not going to pick up a hitter who has injury risk and skill decline within the first five rounds.
This is where the comparison to Furcal comes in. When healthy, Furcal has been able to produce just fine. He's been out for more time than Rollins, but his speed (and running opportunity) is as good as or better than Rollins, and he walks more and hits for better average. He's capable of producing runs like Rollins due to a respectable lineup behind him. All it takes is health, and although it's no guarantee--in fact, it's more likely he'll spend time on the DL than not--it will cost you a lot less to gamble on Furcal than Rollins.
I believe Furcal can hit .290 with 10 HR and 25 SB if he gets 400+ AB. Rollins will max out at .275 for average, and I'm not sure he'll hit 20 HR again. I have him pegged for 15 HR and 30 SB if he's healthy enough for 500 AB. Is 5 HR and 5 SB worth the eight-round difference in ADP? At the time of this article, Rollins is 43rd overall at Mock Draft Central and 62nd at Couch Managers. Furcal is 144th and 136th, respectively. Yes, you'll probably have to pick up another SS eligible guy if you take Furcal, but the way I see it, there's a chance that in 2011 they put up somewhat similar stat lines, and the ADP difference makes this a great risk-reward situation.
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