Call me a crazy Red Sox fan but I'm willing to fight for the title of this post. I'll assume that Pujols and Hanley will go first and second in almost all standard snake draft leagues and instead focus on those who might be picked third, and why it should be Boston's newest first baseman.
The Competition
Miguel Cabrera - Right now Cabrera is the most common third pick in mock drafts and it's hard to blame managers who pick him. But take a quick look at a couple of sets of fantasy numbers:
36/97/119/.315
47/93/106/.309
The first is the average line for Cabrera over the past three seasons, the second is the same three year period for Gonzalez, using only his away stats and doubling the counting stats numbers. While it may not be a perfect park factor calculation I think it provides a good thumbnail idea of just how much Petco stinks for hitters. When you keep in mind that A-Gon should get at least a few more Runs and RBI in the Boston lineup it becomes pretty clear that A-Gon should be more valuable in 2011. Here's another way to look at it:
A good year for Cabrera in 2011 = 40-45 HR, 110 Runs, 130 RBI, .330 BA
A good year for A-Gon in 2011 = 45-55 HR, 110 Runs, 140 RBI, .320 BA
An average season for Cabrera = 35-40 HR, 95 Runs, 115 RBI, .310 BA
An average season for A-Gon = 35-45 HR, 95 Runs, 115 RBI, .300 BA
They're both awesome but I'll take the power over the BA every time.
Joey Votto - If Cabrera is the established power in the Votto/Gonzalez/Cabrera tier of first basemen then Votto is the flashy upstart. His 37/106/113/16/.324 line from last year carried a lot of fantasy teams but the simple lack of track record keeps him below Gonzalez. While you may argue that Gonzalez' track record doesn't support a third overall pick keep in mind that we have an extensive track record and we know just how much Petco deflates offensive numbers. His body of work, when properly adjusted, is long, consistent, and impressive.
Troy Tulowitzki - Tulo could certainly anchor a fantasy team but he's not without his red flags. In 2009 he attempted a steal about once every 20 PA but in 2010 that number fell to once every 40 PA. Whether he was running less because of his low success rate in '09 or the nagging leg and groin injuries detailed here it seems unlikely that he'll reach 20 steals in 2011. He also has a .138 ISO on his record as recently as 2008 so he's not the rock I'd choose with a top three pick.
Evan Longoria - Gonzalez should provide better raw numbers in every category except steals than Longoria. Throw in the fact that A-Gon has a reasonable shot to hit 20-25 more HR than Longoria (don't believe me? Remember Longo only hi 22 in '10) and the position scarcity factor flies out the window.
Carlos Gonzalez - Like Votto above many a manager rode Car-Go to victory in '10 and frankly, there aren't a lot of things to worry about with this kid. Despite not running a lot in the minors his solid success rate indicates that he can be counted on to post plenty of steals and his power numbers are legit. His BB% and FB% are a little too low to every expect 40-40 numbers but he could certainly be a perennial 30-30 guy. Up against a guy who could hit 50 HR in the Red Sox lineup, though, I'll take the masher.
The bottom line is that we have enough information to value Adrian Gonzalez as a truly elite 1B, behind only Albert Pujols in fantasy value. The fact is that if you pick A-Gon you can bank on a line like 40/100/115/.295 while reasonably hoping for a line like 50-55/110/130/.310. Who else in baseball can you say that about?
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