There's no K in Baltimore, Right?

Amid all the hub-bub of the Adrian Gonzalez drama with their AL East counterparts, the Baltimore Orioles quietly bolstered their offensive firepower, acquiring Mark Reynolds from the Arizona Diamondbacks for Mark Hernandez and Kam Mickolio.

Andy MacPhil took a calculated risk here, acquiring Reynolds after his stock dropped thanks to a 81 point drop in his BABIP, an 8% spike in his IFFB%, and his prodigious strikeout rate climbing an extra 5%. While we know any significant drop in BABIP like that is something we should expect to level off, is it finally time for the Orioles, and us, to worry about Reynolds' strikeouts?

Strikeouts are normally a common trait among all players with elite power. In 2009, the top 15 players in K%, also included 10 players with 25+ homeruns; 2010 saw similar results, with 10 of the top 15 players in K% all topping the 25 homerun mark. Reynolds' 2010 rate, however, was far and away ahead of the league pace. He eclipsed the next strikeout king, Adam Dunn, by over 6.5%.

Reynolds did have some positives from his 2010 campaign. For the fourth year in a row, he improved his walk rate, and dropped his swing rate outside the strike zone from his 2009 high.

Escape from Petco Park: Adrian Gonzalez

The time has finally come to see Adrian Gonzalez out of Petco Park and to the team that has coveted him for years.  How much better will this move make Gonzalez in fantasy terms and what does it do to the first base rankings?

First we can see he is going to be a monster.  According to Dave Golebiewski at FanGraphs his OPS in 2008 and 2009 if playing in Boston would have been 1.062 and 0.976 respectively.  That wouldn't have made a huge difference as no one at first was between his 0.904 and that 0.976.  That doesn't mean he hasn't moved up the rankings though.

The first thing to keep in mind is there are renovations occurring at Fenway this offseason this season and one major change is the bullpen.  The move will bring the right field wall 9 feet closer.  Gonzalez hits to all fields so he will benefit from the Green Monster and the shorter wall.  I see no reason he shouldn't be at the 1.000 OPS level next year.

Adam Dunn's New Park

Adam Dunn is moving to the American League, signing a four-year deal with the White Sox. More importantly, he's going back to a ballpark that inflates hitters' home run numbers, and he'll be on a team that produces more runs.

Dunn was Mr. Consistent in Cincinnatti, hitting 46 HR in 2004 and then reaching exactly 40 for the next four years (with a short stint in Arizona at the end of 2008). The move to Washington slightly reduced his HR total, as he hit 38 in 2009 and 2010, but now he's going back to a known sluggers' park. ESPN Park Factors shows that US Cellular Field was the best HR park in 2010, whereas Nationals Park was average at 15th. Bill James' Park Index has data specifically for lefties over the last three years, and again Cellular Field ranks high, coming in 7th compared to Nationals Park's 19th. Looking at Dunn in 2011, I'm ready to bank on a HR total back over 40 again, and maybe as high as 45.

There is a downside to leaving Nationals Park, however. Dunn's BA will likely fall back down to his career average of .247. In Bill James' three-year Park Index, Nationals Park ranks higher than Cellular Field in lefty BA and in 2B. ESPN's 2010 Park Factor places Nationals Park higher in hits as well. This data supports the fact that during his two years with the Nats, Dunn saw his best two years in BABIP, a career high in BA in 2009, and a career high in 2B in 2010 (despite a LD% lower than his career mark).

The White Sox (10th in R in 2010) are better offensively than the Nationals (25th), and their ballpark caters to Dunn's power. As such, look for Dunn to have an increase in R, HR, and probably RBI, but don't be surprised to see his BA drop 10 points or more from the last two years (.264 in '09-'10). In rotisserie and H2H leagues the BA might hurt his value a little, but the gains in three categories should offset the loss in one. In points leagues the extra HR, R, and RBI will more than make up for the fewer hits he accumulates.

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Del La Rosa set to Bloom in Colorado

After briefly testing the free agent waters this off-season, Jorge de la Rosa re-signed with his 2010 team. On the surface that signing shouldn't do much for his value one way or the other, although staying with the team that hosted his breakout season(s) might speak to his comfort level in the thin air of the Rocky Mountains. More important than the landing place for de la Rosa is the fact that he seems to be a pitcher willing and able to adjust.

After four middling seasons to start his career, de la Rosa went to the Rockies in 2008 and immediately started using his slider more than twice as much as he had, at the same time minimizing his curveball usage. It was a smart move as his K rate spiked and his xFIP plummeted. 2010 seems to have been another adjustment year for Jorge, as he started to turn a lot of his fastballs and curveballs into changeups, boosting his O-Swing% by a lot and his swinging strike % a hair.

Jorge definitely has some red flags as a fantasy pitcher--he has definite control issues and has shown an inability to strand runners over his career--but he's also shown that he can strike out batters at an elite rate (9.39 K/9 in '09) and get ground balls more than 50% of the time (52.3% in 2010.) Don't be surprised if 2011 is the year that he can approach 200 strikeouts while dropping his ERA under 4.00.

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Miguel Tejada a Positive Signing

Don't get me wrong, there is probably no reason to look for him come draft day, but a one-year, $6.5 million dollar deal is a fair contract for a shortstop who can probably post anywhere from a 1.5-2.0 WAR next year. On the other hand, as a fantasy option he has fallen far from the first team player we knew and is now probably only of use in leagues that carry a MI option.

Last year's .306 wOBA would rank him outside of the top 12 at both 2B and SS, so that would make him one of the potential options at MI. In an NL-only league he obviously is still one of your options, but still nothing to get excited about. Bill James has predicted 17/80/84/3/.279. That is a .320 wOBA and would still keep him on the fringe of SS options, which is probably his ceiling of potential at 37 years of age.

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