The Red Sox have signed 38 year old Carlos Delgado to a minor league contract. Obviously there is no reason to rush out and grab him at this stage. He is headed to the minors and could be there as long as a month as his contract requires the Red Sox call him up or release him by September 1.
There are two aspects to note in your fantasy leagues. If you picked up Mike Lowell expecting full time at bats you can expect those to end soon. On the other hand even if they call up Delgado he is recovering from his own hip problems and likely won't be headed to full time work.
The addition seems to be more of an insurance policy than anything. He is a more patient hitter and also had more power, but we'll need to see what he does in the minors to see if he still has the ability to SLG greater than .500 like he did before the injuries.
Recommendation: Lowell owners using him as an injury fill in should continue to use him for now. He might share a few days with Victor Martinez, but for now should get a large amount on work. If Delgado gets called to the majors its probably best just to avoid the whole situation. I would think Delgado sees the most work, but not enough to be played in most leagues.
Saturday, August 7
Friday, August 6
Buying Low for the Stretch Run
Most fantasy leagues extend their trade deadline a few weeks past the MLB non-waiver deadline from this past weekend. For those of you in the hunt for your championship, there's a handful of players available who've been "struggling" and may be decent buy low targets for the final 8 weeks of the season. By now, the "Buy Low" status on Tommy Hanson, Dan Haren, and Gavin Floyd has already passed, but I wanted to quickly highlight two additional pitching targets I've had my eye on that still may be poachable.
Jason Hammel
Hammel has been steady most of the year, posting a solid 3.23 K/BB and 3.66 xFIP while having to endure some unsavory circumstantial splits (.331 BABIP and 69% strand rate) that's kept his ERA inflated.
The past 30 days haven't been much kinder to Hammel, as his strand rate has plummeted to a scant 59%. His ERA has taken the expected hit, hovering around 4.6.
Is Hammel going to be a 2.00 ERA pitcher? Probably not. But over the course of the season he's been much better than his ERA has reflected, and with these past 30 days being even slightly worse than his current yearly average, it's a perfect time to pounce for 10 solid starts.
Zack Grienke
Combine an embarrassing loss to the Twins and a lack of run support, and there will be a group of managers thinking Grienke isn't as valuable as he used to be. While Zack's HR/FB% rose this year as we expected it to from last year's unsustainable 4.5%, he's still having a bit of trouble thanks to a much lower strand rate (64.8%) this year.
Unlike Hammel, Grienke isn't a classic "buy low" option as his 3.97 ERA to date isn't that poor and he still carries significant name value. His last 30 days have been quite below his current season pace, skewed mainly by the 19-1 game.
Why is Grienke a candidate to target? Run support.
One of my favorite tactics is betting against run support for acquisitions. No one can predict the type of run support a pitcher gets. For every 2010 Zack Grienke, a 2003-2004 Derek Lowe exists. In that two year span, Lowe racked up 31 Wins in 66 starts with an combined ERA approaching 5.00. Even the teams with the worst offenses can dole out decent run support in batches. If your league's Grienke owner is hung up on the big W, you can leverage that 19-1 game, his recent slide, ERA approaching 4, and paltry run support to a steal for the final two months.
Betting against good or bad luck doesn't always work. We extolled the idea of selling J.A. Happ last year for the stretch run, and his luck didn't go sour until this season. However, I'll still always roll the dice when the numbers are on my side, even if it doesn't pan out here and there.
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Jason Hammel
Hammel has been steady most of the year, posting a solid 3.23 K/BB and 3.66 xFIP while having to endure some unsavory circumstantial splits (.331 BABIP and 69% strand rate) that's kept his ERA inflated.
The past 30 days haven't been much kinder to Hammel, as his strand rate has plummeted to a scant 59%. His ERA has taken the expected hit, hovering around 4.6.
Is Hammel going to be a 2.00 ERA pitcher? Probably not. But over the course of the season he's been much better than his ERA has reflected, and with these past 30 days being even slightly worse than his current yearly average, it's a perfect time to pounce for 10 solid starts.
Zack Grienke
Combine an embarrassing loss to the Twins and a lack of run support, and there will be a group of managers thinking Grienke isn't as valuable as he used to be. While Zack's HR/FB% rose this year as we expected it to from last year's unsustainable 4.5%, he's still having a bit of trouble thanks to a much lower strand rate (64.8%) this year.
Unlike Hammel, Grienke isn't a classic "buy low" option as his 3.97 ERA to date isn't that poor and he still carries significant name value. His last 30 days have been quite below his current season pace, skewed mainly by the 19-1 game.
Why is Grienke a candidate to target? Run support.
One of my favorite tactics is betting against run support for acquisitions. No one can predict the type of run support a pitcher gets. For every 2010 Zack Grienke, a 2003-2004 Derek Lowe exists. In that two year span, Lowe racked up 31 Wins in 66 starts with an combined ERA approaching 5.00. Even the teams with the worst offenses can dole out decent run support in batches. If your league's Grienke owner is hung up on the big W, you can leverage that 19-1 game, his recent slide, ERA approaching 4, and paltry run support to a steal for the final two months.
Betting against good or bad luck doesn't always work. We extolled the idea of selling J.A. Happ last year for the stretch run, and his luck didn't go sour until this season. However, I'll still always roll the dice when the numbers are on my side, even if it doesn't pan out here and there.
Follow the new @RotoSavants tweet account.
Beltre Slams 2011 Drafts
It's time to start getting ready to ignore Adrian Beltre in 2011 drafts. His numbers put him in the top 25 players according to 5x5 league standings before including his grand slam last night. While he probably won't go that high next year I'm starting to think he'll go to high. This could all change based on where he is playing, but the power numbers are all you can count on. His average has been boosted by a .359 BABIP, which is the highest number in his entire career.
In the middle of the third win in a row was Jake Arrieta who collected his fourth win. He has had a tough introduction to the majors throwing more walks than strikeouts. Last night he was able to throw only 1 walk for the first time in a game and only his fifth game with more strikeouts (3) than walks. He was the 99th ranked prospect by Baseball America this year, so he has some skill to watch. He just isn't ready to pitch at the major league level yet.
Speaking of young pitchers the Braves are planning to start young pitcher Mike Minor on Monday against the Astros. He's not an uber prospect, but he is well polished. He has had solid K/BB numbers in the minors this year and at Triple-A he has had a very nice 30+ IP. I wouldn't normally recommend a young pitcher in his first game, but can the empty Astros lineup be much more than his current Triple-A competition?
In the middle of the third win in a row was Jake Arrieta who collected his fourth win. He has had a tough introduction to the majors throwing more walks than strikeouts. Last night he was able to throw only 1 walk for the first time in a game and only his fifth game with more strikeouts (3) than walks. He was the 99th ranked prospect by Baseball America this year, so he has some skill to watch. He just isn't ready to pitch at the major league level yet.
Speaking of young pitchers the Braves are planning to start young pitcher Mike Minor on Monday against the Astros. He's not an uber prospect, but he is well polished. He has had solid K/BB numbers in the minors this year and at Triple-A he has had a very nice 30+ IP. I wouldn't normally recommend a young pitcher in his first game, but can the empty Astros lineup be much more than his current Triple-A competition?
Thursday, August 5
I Love wOBA
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Bumgarner Takes a Seat
What looked like a tough start for Madison Bumgarner was just an unlucky night. So far this season he has a solid K/BB at 3.00 and last night he had 3 strikeouts and only 1 walk. No reason to panic yet, but his strikeouts are still not as elite as many had hoped he would be. I would look at him as a solid option next year pitching in a division that normally produces lower HR/FB for their pitchers.
While he's going to get steady ABs you shouldn't expect consistent nights like last night from Paul Janish. He went 3 for 3 with a home run and 4 RBIs now having 3 homers on the year. His minor league numbers display someone with much less power and that his average will drop as well. Hopefully you can find a better option.
The Blue Jays are calling up catcher J.P. Arencibia to help fill in for John Buck now on the DL. Things are not looking great for the prospect and he doesn't have the numbers to show a chance for great success. He has a poor walk rate and strikes out over 20% of the time. The positive is he can hit for plenty of power with 21 homers so far this season at Triple-A. That sounds like the perfect fill in for John Buck, so if John Buck is worth owning in your league then Arencibia is worth a pick up.
If anyone was surprised by the results of J.A. Happ last night you haven't been paying attention. Happ walked 3 hitters in his one inning and gave up 7 earned runs. OK so 7 earned runs was a bit much, but he has a 1.88 career K/BB and is now on a horrible team. Pass on him and move on to anyone else.
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While he's going to get steady ABs you shouldn't expect consistent nights like last night from Paul Janish. He went 3 for 3 with a home run and 4 RBIs now having 3 homers on the year. His minor league numbers display someone with much less power and that his average will drop as well. Hopefully you can find a better option.
The Blue Jays are calling up catcher J.P. Arencibia to help fill in for John Buck now on the DL. Things are not looking great for the prospect and he doesn't have the numbers to show a chance for great success. He has a poor walk rate and strikes out over 20% of the time. The positive is he can hit for plenty of power with 21 homers so far this season at Triple-A. That sounds like the perfect fill in for John Buck, so if John Buck is worth owning in your league then Arencibia is worth a pick up.
If anyone was surprised by the results of J.A. Happ last night you haven't been paying attention. Happ walked 3 hitters in his one inning and gave up 7 earned runs. OK so 7 earned runs was a bit much, but he has a 1.88 career K/BB and is now on a horrible team. Pass on him and move on to anyone else.
Follow the new @RotoSavants tweet account.
Wednesday, August 4
Youkilis Owners Get the Thumbs Down
First base down the stretch is going to be the bane of many teams. Ryan Howard and Kevin Youkilis were both placed on the DL yesterday. Both have some question about severity of the injury with Howard having an ankle sprain he could be back in two weeks, but Youkilis has a muscle injury in his thumb and surgery has not been ruled out yet. Howard should be back this season, but Youkilis is a big question for this year and going forward. This is a very unusual injury and previous comparisons are tough to find. Will he have his power and contact next year? Let's hope so.
This news gives value to Mike Lowell who will take over at first base for the Red Sox and last night already showed he still can be a fantasy player. He hit a home run in his first at bat for his only hit of the night. He can still hit for power and is built for Fenway Park, but his hip still slows him down and he might need a day off here and there.
The Nationals have waived Adam Dunn yesterday and we all await a waiver claim. If any team can claim him and acquire him that could play a role in his fantasy numbers. Plenty of playoff teams would add to his value for runs and RBIs, but his playing time and a pitchers park could lower his best asset.
Some pitching performances worth noting: Josh Beckett threw 8 innings with 8 Ks and no walks although against a weak Indians offense. No matter what CBS says Brian Duensing had a rough night with 4 BB and only 3 Ks. That 2.10 ERA is an aberration and he shouldn't be trusted in your leagues.
This news gives value to Mike Lowell who will take over at first base for the Red Sox and last night already showed he still can be a fantasy player. He hit a home run in his first at bat for his only hit of the night. He can still hit for power and is built for Fenway Park, but his hip still slows him down and he might need a day off here and there.
The Nationals have waived Adam Dunn yesterday and we all await a waiver claim. If any team can claim him and acquire him that could play a role in his fantasy numbers. Plenty of playoff teams would add to his value for runs and RBIs, but his playing time and a pitchers park could lower his best asset.
Some pitching performances worth noting: Josh Beckett threw 8 innings with 8 Ks and no walks although against a weak Indians offense. No matter what CBS says Brian Duensing had a rough night with 4 BB and only 3 Ks. That 2.10 ERA is an aberration and he shouldn't be trusted in your leagues.
Tuesday, August 3
Fantasy Relevance from Last Night
Hear are the top three fantasy topics from last night that will change your league today.
Carlos Santana is not going to be helping anyone this season. After a horrific leg injury while blocking the plate in a game that for Cleveland was meaningless, you have to wonder if there will be any long term implications. The news this morning is positive, but wait till the MRI, but leagues without keepers should look elsewhere as the Indians have no reason to rush him back to the lineup.
Trevor Cahill threw another gem last night, but he still has a dismal 1.78 K/BB this season. The groundball rate is sparkling at 56.7%, but with only a 5.23 K/9 rate he is not going to be a fantasy star going forward. Keeper leagues should use this point to move him while his value will never be higher.
The Rays watched Jeremy Hellickson throw 7 solid innings, but stuck to the plan and optioned him back to Triple-A. He threw 6 strikeouts and only 2 walks against a patient Twins team. He has the minor league numbers and should be the next pitching prospect in a long line in Tampa Bay to step up and help that team and fantasy teams starting as early as 2011.
Carlos Santana is not going to be helping anyone this season. After a horrific leg injury while blocking the plate in a game that for Cleveland was meaningless, you have to wonder if there will be any long term implications. The news this morning is positive, but wait till the MRI, but leagues without keepers should look elsewhere as the Indians have no reason to rush him back to the lineup.
Trevor Cahill threw another gem last night, but he still has a dismal 1.78 K/BB this season. The groundball rate is sparkling at 56.7%, but with only a 5.23 K/9 rate he is not going to be a fantasy star going forward. Keeper leagues should use this point to move him while his value will never be higher.
The Rays watched Jeremy Hellickson throw 7 solid innings, but stuck to the plan and optioned him back to Triple-A. He threw 6 strikeouts and only 2 walks against a patient Twins team. He has the minor league numbers and should be the next pitching prospect in a long line in Tampa Bay to step up and help that team and fantasy teams starting as early as 2011.
Monday, August 2
The trade you don't make...or, do you?
As of this writing my pitching staff in the Rotosavants league is 5th in K's, tied for 6th in Wins, 18th in Saves, 3rd in ERA, and 2nd in WHIP. With the trade deadline looming one of these categories clearly screams out to be addressed. And yet, a couple of weeks ago I cut off talks with another manager in the league who was willing to trade one or two confirmed closers to me for a reasonable price. Why walk away from talks to address a definite need? Simple, I thought I could get Saves more cheaply from the free agent pool.
Even in a deep league there are usually potential Saves to be had on the waiver wire and with that in mind I added Dan Wheeler, Manny Corpas, David Hernandez, Joel Hanrahan, and J.J. Putz while dumping some of my backup hitters and marginal starting pitchers. Obviously each of these relievers has a different value and a different likelihood of getting Save opportunities but by buying a small flock of setup men I was hoping to get two closers out of the deal. Right now I'd count Hanrahan as about 3/5 of a closer and with the recent reevaluation of Bobby Jenks by his manager I was hoping that Putz would win the race for ninth inning duties in Chicago. So right now my haul definitely does not add up to two closers and it's time to take a look at the fruits of my strategy and see whether I need to look for a trade before the Aug. 20th deadline.
I have just six measly saves on the year - don't ask - but there are teams not too far ahead of me at 18, 18, 20, 20, 26, 28, 28, 30, and 33 before the numbers jump to 51 and up. If I assume that all of these teams continue to post saves at about the same rates through the rest of the season then I can expect this same group to have Save totals from about 30 to 50. If I can record thirty Saves I think there's a fairly good chance that I can catch the bottom four teams, forty saves and I could maybe catch seven or eight of the teams. That's a lot of points to make up and even if I trade Wins and K's I don't see my team losing that many points in those categories. If things go well with Hanrahan I can hope for maybe ten to fifteen saves but without any of the others getting a definite closer job at this point I think I only have one option. Change my strategy. I still think it was the right move at the time and had the White Sox gotten a couple of Save opportunities during Jenks' sabbatical then I could easily have two solid closers right now. But that didn't happen and sometimes you just don't have the time to let your gamble pay off.
Sometimes the best trade is the one that you don't make. But just because you decide not to make a trade one week doesn't mean that's the right decision the next.
Even in a deep league there are usually potential Saves to be had on the waiver wire and with that in mind I added Dan Wheeler, Manny Corpas, David Hernandez, Joel Hanrahan, and J.J. Putz while dumping some of my backup hitters and marginal starting pitchers. Obviously each of these relievers has a different value and a different likelihood of getting Save opportunities but by buying a small flock of setup men I was hoping to get two closers out of the deal. Right now I'd count Hanrahan as about 3/5 of a closer and with the recent reevaluation of Bobby Jenks by his manager I was hoping that Putz would win the race for ninth inning duties in Chicago. So right now my haul definitely does not add up to two closers and it's time to take a look at the fruits of my strategy and see whether I need to look for a trade before the Aug. 20th deadline.
I have just six measly saves on the year - don't ask - but there are teams not too far ahead of me at 18, 18, 20, 20, 26, 28, 28, 30, and 33 before the numbers jump to 51 and up. If I assume that all of these teams continue to post saves at about the same rates through the rest of the season then I can expect this same group to have Save totals from about 30 to 50. If I can record thirty Saves I think there's a fairly good chance that I can catch the bottom four teams, forty saves and I could maybe catch seven or eight of the teams. That's a lot of points to make up and even if I trade Wins and K's I don't see my team losing that many points in those categories. If things go well with Hanrahan I can hope for maybe ten to fifteen saves but without any of the others getting a definite closer job at this point I think I only have one option. Change my strategy. I still think it was the right move at the time and had the White Sox gotten a couple of Save opportunities during Jenks' sabbatical then I could easily have two solid closers right now. But that didn't happen and sometimes you just don't have the time to let your gamble pay off.
Sometimes the best trade is the one that you don't make. But just because you decide not to make a trade one week doesn't mean that's the right decision the next.
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