Looking back at the Baseball America list we see that next on the list is Mike Stanton. He is the number 3 prospect according to the list.
Mike Stanton - OF - Florida Marlins
Injury and Health
A sore back in the Arizona Fall League caused him to be shut down this year, but all information says this is a minor injury and just more of a precaution. The team says it was from wear and tear and not any individual play. Nothing too worrying and no major troubles yet.
Skill Set
Stanton is a power bat and totaled 16 homers in half a season at Double-A. That is what he does well and he has projections as a 40 homer hitter some day. Not only does Baseball America love him, but John Sickels gives him a A- grade.
The trouble here is his contract skills are worrying. He has a strikeout rate at Double-A was 33% and although he only had 299 AB. He also had a 33% strikeout rate in his 468 AB at A ball. It's going to take a lot of power to put up 40 homers with contact skills like this.
His patience at the plate has had ups and downs so far. In his half season at Double-A he walked a solid 9 percent of the time. While not great it's not terrible either. His batting average and on base skills are not ready yet for sure.
Major League ETA and Conclusion
Baseball America thinks a callup sometime this year, but lets hope he is given time to work on his plate discipline. If he can at least turn into a solid three outcome guy his power should supply more than enough power to be a value. Without more walks though he might become the name Sickels suggested: Jeff Franceour.
Friday, March 5
Friday Rewind - March 5, 2010
Here are some links from RS as well as around the baseball blog-o-sphere. You can also check out our Draft Rankings so far.
First up we would like to remind you to contact us with questions for our email segment. Send questions to troypatterson@rotosavants.com
THT Forecasts are out and there is much to look forward too.
Don't let James Loney slip into your draft plans.
Some undervalued hitters for 2010.
Here are some links from RotoSavants you might want to take a look at.
My THT article looked at speedsters Carl Crawford and Dexter Fowler in Clone Wars.
A look at prospect Stephen Strasburg in minor league talents.
Should you take Dernard Span or Shane Victorino?
Don't forget to follow our feed and follow my Twitter @TroyPatterson
First up we would like to remind you to contact us with questions for our email segment. Send questions to troypatterson@rotosavants.com
THT Forecasts are out and there is much to look forward too.
Don't let James Loney slip into your draft plans.
Some undervalued hitters for 2010.
Here are some links from RotoSavants you might want to take a look at.
My THT article looked at speedsters Carl Crawford and Dexter Fowler in Clone Wars.
A look at prospect Stephen Strasburg in minor league talents.
Should you take Dernard Span or Shane Victorino?
Don't forget to follow our feed and follow my Twitter @TroyPatterson
Thursday, March 4
Do Not Draft!!: Players Who Helped You Win Last Year
The fixation with what won you a league last year could doom your hopes in 2010.
Remember those players who you probably picked up last year that helped you win your league, or at least compete for pride or money? You will see their names on your mock draft boards or in a new role on the depth charts and think, if they helped you win the league last year then why not this year?
Remember Mike Aviles? His .325/.354/.480 with 10 home runs probably helped you win your league in 2008. His payoff? Getting hurt in 2009 which derailed his season. However, the Royals still have some up and coming talent and showed some depth if you picked up Alberto Callaspo, who also might not even start this year for the Royals.
Chris B. Young appeared to be ready to break out for the Diamondbacks: hitting 32 home runs and placing fourth in NL Rookie of the Year voting in 2007, then hitting 22 home runs and 42 doubles in 2008. Young was expected to take the next step in 2009 but instead could not hit and was demoted to AAA late in the year. Young recovered to hit .278 in the final month of the season with 8 home runs.
Many leagues last year were likely won on the backs of Garrett Jones, whose .938 OPS and 21 home runs helped many teams win their leagues. Many fans probably don't want to know then that the last time Jones had an OPS over .900 was in a half season with New Britain of the Eastern League in 2004. Jones, who is 29 this year, might have one more year to impress but given that the Pirates lineup limited his RBI opportunities (just 44 RBI despite 21 HR), there might not be much room for improvement in drafting Jones as a third or fourth outfielder in mixed leagues.
Another player, like Jones, to come out of relatively nowhere to impress was Randy Wells. Wells became the hottest waiver commodity quickly, pitching to a 1.80 ERA in four May starts and racking up an early strikeout rate of 8.3 K/9. However after May, Wells' strikeouts declined severely and his WHIP rose every month since. Wells has only pitched better than his 2009 ERA (3.05) in one full season in 2005 as a starter and reliever in A and AA ball (2.83).
Bronson Arroyo had a great end to the season and likely helped teams win some categories in head to head leagues. Arroyo's 6-5 record with a 2.24 ERA in the second half with a 1.04 WHIP was waiver wire gold for teams looking for scarce arms. Arroyo has only put together one full season better than a 3.80 ERA and his strikeouts per nine innings declined by over 2.0 K/9 from 2008 to 2009.
Juan Pierre was a great fix when Manny Ramirez took time off for a suspension last year. Pierre helped many players win their league, racking up 20 steals in May and June combined. Pierre benefited from a .410 Batting Average on Balls in Play in May to boost his value. If you kept Pierre for the rest of the year, you got only 9 more steals the rest of the way. Now a member of the White Sox, Pierre appears to be getting a final chance with the White Sox. One major fact to note before drafting Pierre is that his steals have declined in each of the last three seasons.
There was a reason the Red Sox wanted to cut David Aardsma; however, the Mariners picked up the still young Rice arm and let him loose to become a dominant closer in 2009. Aardsma struck out a career high 80 batters, had a career best 2.53 ERA and converted 38 saves. Some underlying facts about Aardsma, he benefited significantly from a .257 BABIP, his hits per nine innings went down by just under 3.0 H/9 while his walk rate dropped slightly. Entering his age 28 season, it would not be a surprise if Aardsma doesn't develop into a dominant closer but into a short period of very good play.
Remember those players who you probably picked up last year that helped you win your league, or at least compete for pride or money? You will see their names on your mock draft boards or in a new role on the depth charts and think, if they helped you win the league last year then why not this year?
Remember Mike Aviles? His .325/.354/.480 with 10 home runs probably helped you win your league in 2008. His payoff? Getting hurt in 2009 which derailed his season. However, the Royals still have some up and coming talent and showed some depth if you picked up Alberto Callaspo, who also might not even start this year for the Royals.
Chris B. Young appeared to be ready to break out for the Diamondbacks: hitting 32 home runs and placing fourth in NL Rookie of the Year voting in 2007, then hitting 22 home runs and 42 doubles in 2008. Young was expected to take the next step in 2009 but instead could not hit and was demoted to AAA late in the year. Young recovered to hit .278 in the final month of the season with 8 home runs.
Many leagues last year were likely won on the backs of Garrett Jones, whose .938 OPS and 21 home runs helped many teams win their leagues. Many fans probably don't want to know then that the last time Jones had an OPS over .900 was in a half season with New Britain of the Eastern League in 2004. Jones, who is 29 this year, might have one more year to impress but given that the Pirates lineup limited his RBI opportunities (just 44 RBI despite 21 HR), there might not be much room for improvement in drafting Jones as a third or fourth outfielder in mixed leagues.
Another player, like Jones, to come out of relatively nowhere to impress was Randy Wells. Wells became the hottest waiver commodity quickly, pitching to a 1.80 ERA in four May starts and racking up an early strikeout rate of 8.3 K/9. However after May, Wells' strikeouts declined severely and his WHIP rose every month since. Wells has only pitched better than his 2009 ERA (3.05) in one full season in 2005 as a starter and reliever in A and AA ball (2.83).
Bronson Arroyo had a great end to the season and likely helped teams win some categories in head to head leagues. Arroyo's 6-5 record with a 2.24 ERA in the second half with a 1.04 WHIP was waiver wire gold for teams looking for scarce arms. Arroyo has only put together one full season better than a 3.80 ERA and his strikeouts per nine innings declined by over 2.0 K/9 from 2008 to 2009.
Juan Pierre was a great fix when Manny Ramirez took time off for a suspension last year. Pierre helped many players win their league, racking up 20 steals in May and June combined. Pierre benefited from a .410 Batting Average on Balls in Play in May to boost his value. If you kept Pierre for the rest of the year, you got only 9 more steals the rest of the way. Now a member of the White Sox, Pierre appears to be getting a final chance with the White Sox. One major fact to note before drafting Pierre is that his steals have declined in each of the last three seasons.
There was a reason the Red Sox wanted to cut David Aardsma; however, the Mariners picked up the still young Rice arm and let him loose to become a dominant closer in 2009. Aardsma struck out a career high 80 batters, had a career best 2.53 ERA and converted 38 saves. Some underlying facts about Aardsma, he benefited significantly from a .257 BABIP, his hits per nine innings went down by just under 3.0 H/9 while his walk rate dropped slightly. Entering his age 28 season, it would not be a surprise if Aardsma doesn't develop into a dominant closer but into a short period of very good play.
Monday, March 1
Draft This, Not That: Span VS Victorino
There are plenty of decent outfielders available every year. Some guys are harder to replace than others (see Braun, Ryan), but overall you can find very comparable hitters in stats and abilities. So when you can get a guy who’s the spitting image of an OF on the NL champions, but this guy is available several rounds, why not take him? For this reason, you should draft Denard Span instead of Shane Victorino.
Shane Victorino is a five-category hitter; though he’s a little low for HR, you can bank on 10 or more to go with his speed. He hits righties well, going .283 against them in 2009. And he plays on a strong club, which can help his R and RBI totals. So why would you pass on him? Well, there’s nothing particularly wrong with his game, aside from a mediocre OBP; 2009 was his career high at .358, and he’s been slightly improving every year, but he’d have a much better SB total if he could get on base even more. That being said, his walk percentage is the only major downer here. It’s not that Victorino is bad, but that you can get his twin in later rounds.
Denard Span has been a sleeper candidate who showed potential during limited playing time in 2008. He got full-time work in 2009 and blossomed. He hits lefties well and ended up with a better average against them than righties, though this was certainly due to a high BABIP. He doesn’t hit a lot of doubles, as he either hits a single or hits it well enough to make a triple. And he can offer a bit of pop as well, hitting 8 HR in 2009, with potential for a few more as he matures. Though his success for SB wasn’t as good as his rookie season, you should be able to count on 20+ from him in the future.
Before we look at the average draft positions, I want to emphasize how close these two hitters were in 2009 in the five basic roto categories. Keep this in mind when you see the ADP numbers.
Victorino: .292/102/10/62/25
Span: .311/97/8/68/23
Now for their ADP. Couch Managers has them closer together than Mock Draft Central, but the differences are still insane considering the talent and stats you get from Span. Victorino averages 81 at Couch Managers, while Span goes three rounds later at 119. At Mock Draft Central, Victorino’s ADP is 70 compared to Span’s 124, or a four-round difference. In fact, Span’s earliest selection (98) is still lower than Victorino’s latest (91).
Let’s see... Same stats? Check. Huge difference in ADP? Check. A perfect example of finding a steal in the draft? Check! By passing on Victorino, you can pick up an extra slugger or a starting pitcher early on, and you can recover all of his production three rounds later by grabbing Span.
Shane Victorino is a five-category hitter; though he’s a little low for HR, you can bank on 10 or more to go with his speed. He hits righties well, going .283 against them in 2009. And he plays on a strong club, which can help his R and RBI totals. So why would you pass on him? Well, there’s nothing particularly wrong with his game, aside from a mediocre OBP; 2009 was his career high at .358, and he’s been slightly improving every year, but he’d have a much better SB total if he could get on base even more. That being said, his walk percentage is the only major downer here. It’s not that Victorino is bad, but that you can get his twin in later rounds.
Denard Span has been a sleeper candidate who showed potential during limited playing time in 2008. He got full-time work in 2009 and blossomed. He hits lefties well and ended up with a better average against them than righties, though this was certainly due to a high BABIP. He doesn’t hit a lot of doubles, as he either hits a single or hits it well enough to make a triple. And he can offer a bit of pop as well, hitting 8 HR in 2009, with potential for a few more as he matures. Though his success for SB wasn’t as good as his rookie season, you should be able to count on 20+ from him in the future.
Before we look at the average draft positions, I want to emphasize how close these two hitters were in 2009 in the five basic roto categories. Keep this in mind when you see the ADP numbers.
Victorino: .292/102/10/62/25
Span: .311/97/8/68/23
Now for their ADP. Couch Managers has them closer together than Mock Draft Central, but the differences are still insane considering the talent and stats you get from Span. Victorino averages 81 at Couch Managers, while Span goes three rounds later at 119. At Mock Draft Central, Victorino’s ADP is 70 compared to Span’s 124, or a four-round difference. In fact, Span’s earliest selection (98) is still lower than Victorino’s latest (91).
Let’s see... Same stats? Check. Huge difference in ADP? Check. A perfect example of finding a steal in the draft? Check! By passing on Victorino, you can pick up an extra slugger or a starting pitcher early on, and you can recover all of his production three rounds later by grabbing Span.
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