Closer Watch: Washington Nationals

Mike MacDougal nailed down 20 saves for the Nationals in 2009: His reward? Being non-tendered in December.

Seeking relief help, the Nationals traded for Brian Bruney. Bruney tied his career high giving up 6 home runs and has never pitched more than 50 innings in a season. Then the Nats won the Matt Capps sweepstakes over the Chicago Cubs to fill the presumed closer opening. Capps put up his career-worst ERA (5.80). If that's not another indicator, the last time Capps put up a WHIP higher than his 2009 WHIP (1.656) was in a brief 2004 stint in the Sally league.

To create more depth, the Nationals signed Eddie Guardado to a minor league deal for a chance for him to pitch in his 18th professional season. Last year, as a Ranger, the team pulled a joke on him and said he was being traded to the Nationals. Guardado said as he was being pranked, "They're all sitting around and nobody is smiling. I go, 'Washington Nationals? You've got to be kidding.' "

Bruney wants to close and told the Washington Post as much in December:

"I love closing ballgames," Bruney said. "There's nothing better than that in my opinion. I felt like New York was a good stepping stone with lots of pressure-filled situations. But to be honest, I had talked to my agent and I said, 'I can't wait to get to the place where I can try and close somewhere.' "

But Capps, in all likelihood, was signed to a one-year deal for $3.5 million to be the stopper. Eddie Guardado would like to have his shot as well and will get it with a Spring Training invite. There is some talent coming back from last year, Sean Burnett was a good left handed reliever in 2009 and Tyler Clippard put up a quiet great season as well. If Capps inherits the job and cannot hold it, it will be interesting to see if the Nationals turn to Clippard as the future.

Clippard was great against lefties (.122 BA against in 09) and righties (.234 BA against in 09). Clippard will be entering his second year as a reliever. Clippard's FIP was a high 4.46 and there is a chance that he might regress next year and have a slightly higher ERA. But he could definately be the next man in line for the closer spot as long as 2009 Draft 10th overall pick Drew Storen doesn't make the team out of Spring Training.

Guardado probably is a long shot to make the team. He had a good season in Texas last year but was used sparingly for only just over 38 innings due to injury. Guardado's strikeout rate has gone steadily down over the past few years and gave a few too many home runs (8) for such a limited amount of time. He might be a fantasy "veteran" option should anything go wrong in Spring Training but it's highly doubtful.

What Projection is best

OK so my title is a bit deceiving. I'm not going to tell you what is best. I'm going to try and tell you how they work. Most systems have different ways they are calculated and what they mean. If I don't know everything about the system I'll try to give you the best I know. The systems I'll look at today are Bill James, CHONE, PECOTA and MARCEL.

Bill James -

This one might be the toughest to understand how they project, but the golden rule is they are always the most optimistic. Never ever compare his projections to another system as they are not going to make sense. His league average appears to be higher and why is not really clear. This does not mean it's any less accurate, but difficult to work with.

If you directly compare Bill James projections to another Bill James projection that could be helpful, but don't try to compare someones Bill James projection to his CHONE projection.

CHONE -

The work of Sean Smith is a solid projection and now includes TZ for those interested in defense when not looking for fantasy. The numbers here are built to include park and league factors, but you can compare players with R/150, which is park and league neutral. That is a good factor if a player changes team in season. If you're worried about park factors this may be one of the better ones to look at.

PECOTA -

The poster child of projection now after being run non stop on MLB Network last year. This one is maybe one of the most in depth if you are a member, but fantasy wise also includes a ranking tool. This projection system is based on player comparison projections. It takes past performance and looks for players who had similar results to build a result.

The fantasy tool seemed to overvalue speed last year, but the system is one of the top for a reason. With so many new members of the BP crew it will be interesting to see if they make any changes.

MARCEL -

This is the work of Tom Tango who has been nice enough to talk with us before. His projection is named Marcel after the monkey since a monkey could due it. The process is a simple weighting system of past performance to build a next year projection. The most recent season has the most weight and there is an age factor used.

The system isn't optimized and is intentionally built to be this way. The good news is it works about as well as any other projection system. It doesn't attempt to target breakouts or slumps, so don't look for that.

Conclusion

There isn't a "best" projection system and I didn't cover ZiPs or any of the major outlets; ESPN, CBS, RotoWorld, etc. My league last year in CBS gave me a chance to look at theirs and it looked like they were using an outdated system as many projections made little sense and didn't match any other system.

What system do you prefer to use?

2010 Catcher Rankings

To start off the new year we'll be listing the top players for 2010 at each position. First up is the catcher position where we will look at the top 25 catchers for league needing two catchers.

1. Joe Mauer - That was quite a season last year, but it's tough to judge where the power will be in 2010. His ISO jumped nearly 100 points last season and a regression should be expected.

2. Victor Martinez - After accounting for the better lineup in Boston and his moving past the poor season in 2008 he is again one of the top catchers on the board.

3. Brian McCann - He is becoming the model of consistency behind the dish posting 20/60/90/4/.290 on average the past 4 seasons.

4. Matt Wieters - The hype machine rolls on for Wieters and his power makes him one of the top 5 this year.

5. Jorge Posada - He still can hit 20 homers in Yankee Stadium and is in the best offensive lineup in baseball.

6. Geovany Soto - Injuries and poor BABIP plagued Soto in 2009, but he will be ready to go next year.

7. Russell Martin - It looks like his season of 19 homers and 21 steals is a long forgotten past, but he still supplies a surprising amount of speed for a position lacking it.

8. Kurt Suzuki - He took a big step last year, but he stays behind Martin until he can repeat those numbers.

9. Mike Napoli - Still can't understand what the Angels are doing with him as he is due for more than 432 PA, but you can't count on that yet. You can count on 20 homers though.

10. Miguel Montero - The batting average seems to be from a bit of BABIP luck and might fool some others. He is a solid choice if he falls late enough.

The Best of the Rest

11. Ryan Doumit
12. Chris Iannetta
13. Bengie Molina
14. Yadier Molina
15. Buster Posey
16. A.J. Pierzynski
17. Jarrod Saltalamaccia
18. Carlos Ruiz
19. Jesus Flores
20. Kelly Shoppach