Andy MacPhil took a calculated risk here, acquiring Reynolds after his stock dropped thanks to a 81 point drop in his BABIP, an 8% spike in his IFFB%, and his prodigious strikeout rate climbing an extra 5%. While we know any significant drop in BABIP like that is something we should expect to level off, is it finally time for the Orioles, and us, to worry about Reynolds' strikeouts?
Strikeouts are normally a common trait among all players with elite power. In 2009, the top 15 players in K%, also included 10 players with 25+ homeruns; 2010 saw similar results, with 10 of the top 15 players in K% all topping the 25 homerun mark. Reynolds' 2010 rate, however, was far and away ahead of the league pace. He eclipsed the next strikeout king, Adam Dunn, by over 6.5%.
Reynolds did have some positives from his 2010 campaign. For the fourth year in a row, he improved his walk rate, and dropped his swing rate outside the strike zone from his 2009 high.
Mark's bringing a component to the Oriole lineup that they've been lacking for quite some time. He'll immediately become the odds-on-favorite to lead the team in HRs, as only Luke Scott came anywhere close to Reynolds' HR/FB%. He's also coming to a ballpark (and league) that's a little more homerun happy, as Camden was #5 in HRs in 2010, compared to Chase Field at #12. Camden's left field isn't much more favorable for Reynolds, measuring 333ft at the line (330ft in Chase), 364ft in left center (374ft in Chase), and 412ft in left field's most deepest point (413 in Chase)
All this information is great, but when it comes down to weighing the pluses and minuses from the last few years, I'm growing increasingly pessimistic. The burgeoning K% rate is getting harder to ignore. An inflated BABIP and IFFB% can't be the only culprits for Mark's struggles. What's concerned me the most? His contract rate continues to drop, and 2010 saw his Zone contract rate drop below 70%.
Is Reynolds as bad as his 2010? No. Will he match his stellar 2009? Most likely not. Reynolds should be approached with caution (my standard "Let Someone Else Draft Him" policy kicks in here). If he's slips in your draft, or his auction price stays low, I'm always happy to take a risk on a three-true-outcome player with a growing walk rate and crazy power. However, I'm not going to pay for the AVG/OBP hit that will invariably hamper his run totals.
Look for Reynolds to easily top 35 homeruns, but continue to struggle a bit with his plate discipline. .230/.330/.500, 38 HRs, 15 SBs seems reasonable in the AL East, surrounded by homer-happy ball parks. Moving out of the NL West can only help. If you can support the hit to AVG or OBP, those still are not bad numbers!
If anything, his presence may help Nick Markakis finally see some pitches, as he's no longer the only threat in the Oriole lineup.
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