Wow. So one day later and Zack Greinke has been traded. The trade is a head scratcher for the Royals, but then I just remember it's the Royals. A horrible return for the 2009 Cy Young award winner, and as a Red Sox fan I feel if not for the signing of John Lackey last year, we could have easily beat this package even after the Adrian Gonzalez trade.
Well let's get on to the fantasy aspect of this trade. First up is where does this fit in the analysis of Greinke trades I suggested? I never looked at Milwaukee, and that is largely because Miller Park is friendly to left handed batters, especially for power. Like we discussed in the article, Greinke is great against right handers but has a drop in K/BB and GB% against lefties.
Kansas City has one of the best parks for pitchers against left handers, with only Petco Park being more pitcher friendly for home runs. The good news is overall Miller looks about the same if not a bit better for pitchers judging by StatCorner.com park factors using xOBA.
Overall Greinke still gets the boost for moving to the NL of about 0.50 in ERA, and the Brewers are a contender in the NL Centra,l giving him a shot at 18-20 wins. Move Greinke up your draft boards with a better ERA, WHIP, K and wins.
I see no reason to view anyone else in this trade on fantasy day unless you're in an AL or NL only league. Yuniensky Betancourt and Alcides Escobar are very similar when it comes to fantasy purposes. Escobar has a much better glove and will give you some steals, but average, power and R/RBI are not worth drafting.
Lorenzo Cain has a similar look in the outfield with little to no power and a bit of speed. He is probably a fourth outfielder on most teams, and that makes him low on your list in fantasy.
The other prospects include Jeremy Jeffress, who is a reliever, and Jacob Odorizzi, who is a great prospect but has yet to pitch above A ball. They can be ignored except Odorizzi in leagues with minor league roster spots. He will be one to watch with a ceiling of a #2 or #3 starter some day.
The final analysis is Greinke is a better pitcher in the National League who won't be forced to pitch for the 0-1 win. Otherwise your 2011 draft is unchanged unless you needed steals from Escobar. His value takes a hit moving to the Royals lineup.
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