There's nothing too sexy about a thirty-two year old starter whose career peak was several years ago but there is something sexy about any hurler who lands in Petco for half of his games. Aaron Harang was a top shelf fantasy player in '05 through '07 before posting a couple of disappointing years in '08-'09 and one real stinker in '10. Can a move to one of the league most pitcher friendly parks rejuvenate the Harangatan?
The surprising answer may be that Harang doesn't really need a rejuvenation, at least as far as his underlying skills are concerned. Harang's xFIP has only been above 4.20 once in the past six years and that was during an injury shortened 2010 during which it ballooned to 4.62. Should we really trust that 4.62 number more than the 3.67, 3.75, 4.18, and 3.95 that he posted in '06 through '09, respectively? Looking deeper into his batted ball and Pitch F/X numbers doesn't really throw up any red flags; the movement and velocity on his pitches did not change appreciably in 2010 and his O-swing% (batters swinging at pitches outside of the strike zone) actually went up by quite a bit. His BABIP in 2010? Career high. His LOB%? Career low.
So is Harang worth a look in 2011? Absolutely. While he may have lost a step since his '06-'07 seasons the numbers don't point to any kind of actual collapse. And that doesn't even address the fact that he's a flyball pitcher moving to one of the most friendly environs on the planet for his skill set. Don't be surprised by a K/9 between 7.5 and 8.25 and an ERA under 4.00.
Follow the new @RotoSavants tweet account.
0 comments:
Post a Comment