Most fantasy leagues extend their trade deadline a few weeks past the MLB non-waiver deadline from this past weekend. For those of you in the hunt for your championship, there's a handful of players available who've been "struggling" and may be decent buy low targets for the final 8 weeks of the season. By now, the "Buy Low" status on Tommy Hanson, Dan Haren, and Gavin Floyd has already passed, but I wanted to quickly highlight two additional pitching targets I've had my eye on that still may be poachable.
Jason Hammel
Hammel has been steady most of the year, posting a solid 3.23 K/BB and 3.66 xFIP while having to endure some unsavory circumstantial splits (.331 BABIP and 69% strand rate) that's kept his ERA inflated.
The past 30 days haven't been much kinder to Hammel, as his strand rate has plummeted to a scant 59%. His ERA has taken the expected hit, hovering around 4.6.
Is Hammel going to be a 2.00 ERA pitcher? Probably not. But over the course of the season he's been much better than his ERA has reflected, and with these past 30 days being even slightly worse than his current yearly average, it's a perfect time to pounce for 10 solid starts.
Zack Grienke
Combine an embarrassing loss to the Twins and a lack of run support, and there will be a group of managers thinking Grienke isn't as valuable as he used to be. While Zack's HR/FB% rose this year as we expected it to from last year's unsustainable 4.5%, he's still having a bit of trouble thanks to a much lower strand rate (64.8%) this year.
Unlike Hammel, Grienke isn't a classic "buy low" option as his 3.97 ERA to date isn't that poor and he still carries significant name value. His last 30 days have been quite below his current season pace, skewed mainly by the 19-1 game.
Why is Grienke a candidate to target? Run support.
One of my favorite tactics is betting against run support for acquisitions. No one can predict the type of run support a pitcher gets. For every 2010 Zack Grienke, a 2003-2004 Derek Lowe exists. In that two year span, Lowe racked up 31 Wins in 66 starts with an combined ERA approaching 5.00. Even the teams with the worst offenses can dole out decent run support in batches. If your league's Grienke owner is hung up on the big W, you can leverage that 19-1 game, his recent slide, ERA approaching 4, and paltry run support to a steal for the final two months.
Betting against good or bad luck doesn't always work. We extolled the idea of selling J.A. Happ last year for the stretch run, and his luck didn't go sour until this season. However, I'll still always roll the dice when the numbers are on my side, even if it doesn't pan out here and there.
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