The Cubs enjoyed a winning weekend, and Alfonso Soriano was a big reason why. With 4 HR and 10 RBI over his last three games, he’s finally on a hot streak, which he never really had last year. In fantasy circles Soriano came cheap during the 2010 draft, so should managers trade him while he’s hot or plan to ride him for the season?
Everyone who drafted or traded for Soriano last year was severely disappointed. How much his bad knee affected his batting stats is unknown, but it certainly didn’t help. Soriano set career lows for pretty much every stat worth counting. I’d think that some of that is due to his inability to beat out any grounders, as he had his second lowest infield hit percentage of his career. He also had his second highest infield fly ball percentage, so he clearly wasn’t putting the bat on the ball well. Also, the career low trend also applied to his BABIP, at but that also means he had a career low in BABIP, at .279. Taking into consideration his injuries and his very low BABIP, he was due for a bounce back.
I looked at his strike zone swings and was a bit surprised. Cubs fans are used to assuming he swings at everything outside the zone, and while his 2009 O-Swing% was higher than his career average, it was actually better than 2008. He made better contact than his career average, both inside and outside the zone. It seems he simply was not getting a good piece of the ball.
It’s still early in the 2010 season, and I don’t expect him to reach 600 plate appearances again. However, his numbers across the board have rebounded. One number that I like a lot is his line drive percentage (24%), which shows he’s making solid contact with the ball. He’s also making great contact at pitches inside the zone (90%).
Even if you assume this weekend’s hitting doesn’t translate into a full season of top performance, I think it’s safe to say that Soriano will be a great #2 OF for fantasy managers, especially in daily leagues where you can adjust for the one or two games he doesn’t start. I’d be willing to pencil in 25 HR and 80 RBI. I say keep Soriano, or trade for him if a fellow manager is still skeptical (or didn’t notice his weekend performance).
