David Allen at FanGraphs noticed something in his first start that is a very important change. He threw a large number of changeups compared to previous numbers.
Last night he threw it even more often, throwing 34 changeups out of his 91 pitches, and 32 changeups out of his 71 pitches to RHBs. It did not disappoint, inducing 12 of his 16 swinging strikes. It will be interesting to see whether he continues to use the change more often this season, as it is his best pitch.That is 37 percent up from a rate of 21 percent in 2009. This is a good idea as his change up is his his best pitch by far.
This is the point where I feel there is enough positive numbers backing him that if he has made the adjustment to throw his best pitch more he should hold more value. Heading into 2010 his projections looked like a solid pitcher around a 4 ERA in a pitchers park, but this could make him a surprise ERA, WHIP and strikeout guy.
And it works, as the pitch was worth almost two runs above average per 100 in 2009 and 2008...
While James Shields has gone the other way and started to cut back on change ups perhaps Braden can take his spot as the solid, but not spectacular pitcher on your roster. If you do add Braden be sure to watch his change up rate and a return to 21% would be a concern for him to improve on expectations.
Small sample size still applies but for all the reasons that Braden should be considered savvy managers will want to take a second look at Bronson Arroyo after his very good start against the Cards. Arroyo threw his change 27.5% of the time up from a career rate of 16.5% and induced swinging strikes a whopping 20% of the time. For comparison that's almost as high a whiff rate as Lincecum has had on his change during his career-a change that was worth 35 runs all by itself last year. -Aaron
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