Today, we'll be continuing these predictions for the 2010 season, with the wrap-up containing a few last minute predictions as well.
Lee's 2010 Fearless Prediction: Jay Bruce is 2010's Mark Reynolds.
Jay Bruce showed off some extremely strong power numbers during his first two seasons. His 20.2 HR/FB% and his 16.8 HR/FB in 2008 and 2009, were stronger than Reynolds' first two seasons(even though Bruce's strongest season was his rookie year).
Both players showed similar K/BB ratios, with Reynolds being the stronger walker, and Bruce being slightly more conservative with his strikeouts. Both players also showed an increase in plate discipline
One of the things I love about Jay Bruce was the level of dominance he had in the minors. Not many players who slug over .600 in two high level minor league seasons struggle to translate this power to the majors. Jay Bruce has already had two respectful seasons in the majors, belting 43 homeruns in only 758 at bats.
However, an extremely unlucky 2009 at the plate, evidenced by his league "leading" BABIP of .221 for all players with at least 350 plate appearances, made Bruce appear to have a "letdown" sophomore season.
Should an increase in walks, a decrease in strikeouts, and Top 35 HR/FB rate be a cause for alarm? I say no. While the results weren't spectacular, the signs for growth were there.
Reynolds went through a similar change from 2007 through 2008, and I see Jay Bruce following the same path and returning on big dividends in 2010. I'm pretty high on a big group of Reds, but we'll touch more on that later in the week.
Jay Bruce's ADP is a paltry 114, good for the middle of the 10th round. I'm siding with Bill James' prediction(.340/.537/.877), which makes him look similar to outfielders going 5 round earlier.
Look for Jay Bruce to contribute around 35 homeruns, 10 steals, and a big chunk of RBIs hitting in a very favorable Cincinatti lineup. The exact line I gave for Reynolds last year was:
With HR/FB% numbers comparable to Mark Teixeira, Dan Uggla, Prince Fielder and Pat Burrell, Reynolds should easily crack 35 HRs this year. Reynolds just needs to actually put the bat on the ball in the zone, and he's primed for elite production. If he can improve his zone contact levels another 10%, he'll be putting up numbers like Adam Dunn(with a better BA!)--at 3B. Reynolds will end up at 260/355/525, 35HRs and 10SBs
Expect more of the same from Bruce.
