With the start of the season only two days away, the Savants give some quick hit predictions for can't miss players in the upcoming season. We'll be telling you two guys to draft for 2010, and one guy we really like in 2011 (for all of you in keeper leagues).
When we did this piece last year, each writer also gave us a 2010 prediction, and we'll be tracking those as well. We'll start the week off with predictions from Lee, Aaron, and Ryan, and the rest of the writers will wrap up later in the week.
Lee Perrault
2009's look at 2010: Clay Buchholz
It'll take the Red Sox one more season to finally end the Tim Wakefield love affair in the rotation. Buchholz' mechanics have been reset after the Red Sox foolishly tried to refine them last year. Let's hope they realize that consistency is sometimes just as important as ideal mechanics (see Lincecum, Timothy). Clay should be locked in as the #5 next year, and will be ready for a full year breakout. A 3.7 ERA, 1.3 WHIP, and 8.5 K/9 looks about right.
2010: Jay Bruce turns into Mark Reynolds.
2010: Jorge De La Rosa
De La Rosa has been called in some circles the "NL Dice-K", but I'm inclined to buy into the hype, and I could care less about his win totals. De La Rosa's decent groundball rate has been supported by a slowly increasing K/BB over the past two years. We've also seen him have his FIP and xFIP decrease in the same time span. While the BB/9 hovering around 4 is always something to concern ourselves about, even the gradual strides he's been making is something to look forward to. Grab in after the 10th round in most leagues, and reap the benefits. I'm looking at 14W, 3.85 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, and 200+Ks. Jorge does in 2010 what Matsuzaka should have done since he came to the USA.
2011: Justin Upton and Grady Sizemore complete back to back 30/30 seasons.
This also means they'll both have to go 30/30 in 2010! Scandalous!
While Grady takes the next two years to reestablish himself as the American League's premier center fielder, Upton is right on his heels while 5 years his junior. The next two years will see a rebirth of the elite centerfielder, and Upton's age may make my 2012 prediction start whispering 40/40.
Aaron Murray
2010: John Lackey will finish the season with a WHIP under 1.20 for the first time in his career
There's no real mystery behind this prediction. Lackey is a decent ground ball pitcher who will be playing for a team with a very good infield defense. I'll go with 1.18 as my final answer.
2010: CC Sabathia will NOT be a top fifteen fantasy starter in 2010
Even though Sabathia is the third pitcher off the board according to Mockdraftcentral this prediction is probably not as extreme as it might seem on the surface. After all, I was going to just predict that CC would not be a top ten starter but according to Baseballmonster he was only the tenth best starter in 2009 so that wouldn't have been a very bold prediction. CC was somewhat lucky last year in terms of BABIP and HR/FB% but his K/9 and B/9 were his worst since 2005 so I expect his ERA and WHIP to rise out of the elite level while his K's settle in around 7.5-8.0/9. With guys like Lincecum, Grienke, Haren, Verlander, Felix, and Lester very likely to be more valuable than CC it won't take many strong performances from the Tommy Hanson/Javier Vazquez/Ricky Nolasco tier of pitchers to knock CC out of the top fifteen.
2011: Colby Rasmus will go 25/15
Rasmus showed decent power numbers in the minors hitting twenty-nine dingers in 556 PA's in AA and he posted strong batted ball numbers for fantasy purposes in '09, LD-19.5%, GB-34.7, FB-45.7. Unfortunately, his HR/FB was only 9.4% which limited his power output but expect that number to rise this year as he matures. Even if Rasmus only pushes his HR/FB to 12 or 13% we can expect twenty-five HR's from him if his FB% stays high. Fifteen steals might be more of a stretch-he attempted only four in '09-but he definitely has some speed and hopefully Rasmus will find his groove on the base paths soon and backup his strong Minor League success rate with more attempts in the majors.
Ryan Restivo
2010: Tommy Hanson = Fantasy God.
Tommy Hanson will continue on a very good rookie performance and will put up Cy Young caliber numbers on his way to finishing 2nd in the voting. Hanson will cut down on his 3.24 walks per 9 career rate and surpass Yovani Gallardo and Clayton Kershaw as the young arm to keep an eye on. The Braves might not contend, due to their punch less and aging offense, but the Braves will have their ace in Hanson to build around.
2010: OVER: 1.5 star Yankees will miss significant time due to injury, testing their depth to the brink.
The Yankees went through a relatively healthy 2009. ARod came back to be a machine and most of the regulars did not have to worry about the disabled list. This year, that will change. The bottom line is that the Yankees spent in 2008 to win in 2009 and accomplished that. However, over the next few years, the top stars the Yankees signed will be either declining in their career trend or be more susceptible to injuries. For those reasons, among the overvaluing of players in the New Yankee Stadium, I tend to avoid Yankees and plan to cash in when they fall down.
2011: Stephen Strasburg will win 12 games.
Maybe I'm being conservative here but I think the Nationals will eventually improve enough to have Strasburg give an ace performance when it maters. Every single mind in the game has raved about Straburg's raw skills and teams that weren't likely burned on drafting him too high in 2010 will get a soft ace like performance in 2011.
