Draft This, Not That: Span VS Victorino

There are plenty of decent outfielders available every year. Some guys are harder to replace than others (see Braun, Ryan), but overall you can find very comparable hitters in stats and abilities. So when you can get a guy who’s the spitting image of an OF on the NL champions, but this guy is available several rounds, why not take him? For this reason, you should draft Denard Span instead of Shane Victorino.

Shane Victorino is a five-category hitter; though he’s a little low for HR, you can bank on 10 or more to go with his speed. He hits righties well, going .283 against them in 2009. And he plays on a strong club, which can help his R and RBI totals. So why would you pass on him? Well, there’s nothing particularly wrong with his game, aside from a mediocre OBP; 2009 was his career high at .358, and he’s been slightly improving every year, but he’d have a much better SB total if he could get on base even more. That being said, his walk percentage is the only major downer here. It’s not that Victorino is bad, but that you can get his twin in later rounds.

Denard Span has been a sleeper candidate who showed potential during limited playing time in 2008. He got full-time work in 2009 and blossomed. He hits lefties well and ended up with a better average against them than righties, though this was certainly due to a high BABIP. He doesn’t hit a lot of doubles, as he either hits a single or hits it well enough to make a triple. And he can offer a bit of pop as well, hitting 8 HR in 2009, with potential for a few more as he matures. Though his success for SB wasn’t as good as his rookie season, you should be able to count on 20+ from him in the future.

Before we look at the average draft positions, I want to emphasize how close these two hitters were in 2009 in the five basic roto categories. Keep this in mind when you see the ADP numbers.

Victorino: .292/102/10/62/25
Span: .311/97/8/68/23

Now for their ADP. Couch Managers has them closer together than Mock Draft Central, but the differences are still insane considering the talent and stats you get from Span. Victorino averages 81 at Couch Managers, while Span goes three rounds later at 119. At Mock Draft Central, Victorino’s ADP is 70 compared to Span’s 124, or a four-round difference. In fact, Span’s earliest selection (98) is still lower than Victorino’s latest (91).

Let’s see... Same stats? Check. Huge difference in ADP? Check. A perfect example of finding a steal in the draft? Check! By passing on Victorino, you can pick up an extra slugger or a starting pitcher early on, and you can recover all of his production three rounds later by grabbing Span.