The fixation with what won you a league last year could doom your hopes in 2010.
Remember those players who you probably picked up last year that helped you win your league, or at least compete for pride or money? You will see their names on your mock draft boards or in a new role on the depth charts and think, if they helped you win the league last year then why not this year?
Remember Mike Aviles? His .325/.354/.480 with 10 home runs probably helped you win your league in 2008. His payoff? Getting hurt in 2009 which derailed his season. However, the Royals still have some up and coming talent and showed some depth if you picked up Alberto Callaspo, who also might not even start this year for the Royals.
Chris B. Young appeared to be ready to break out for the Diamondbacks: hitting 32 home runs and placing fourth in NL Rookie of the Year voting in 2007, then hitting 22 home runs and 42 doubles in 2008. Young was expected to take the next step in 2009 but instead could not hit and was demoted to AAA late in the year. Young recovered to hit .278 in the final month of the season with 8 home runs.
Many leagues last year were likely won on the backs of Garrett Jones, whose .938 OPS and 21 home runs helped many teams win their leagues. Many fans probably don't want to know then that the last time Jones had an OPS over .900 was in a half season with New Britain of the Eastern League in 2004. Jones, who is 29 this year, might have one more year to impress but given that the Pirates lineup limited his RBI opportunities (just 44 RBI despite 21 HR), there might not be much room for improvement in drafting Jones as a third or fourth outfielder in mixed leagues.
Another player, like Jones, to come out of relatively nowhere to impress was Randy Wells. Wells became the hottest waiver commodity quickly, pitching to a 1.80 ERA in four May starts and racking up an early strikeout rate of 8.3 K/9. However after May, Wells' strikeouts declined severely and his WHIP rose every month since. Wells has only pitched better than his 2009 ERA (3.05) in one full season in 2005 as a starter and reliever in A and AA ball (2.83).
Bronson Arroyo had a great end to the season and likely helped teams win some categories in head to head leagues. Arroyo's 6-5 record with a 2.24 ERA in the second half with a 1.04 WHIP was waiver wire gold for teams looking for scarce arms. Arroyo has only put together one full season better than a 3.80 ERA and his strikeouts per nine innings declined by over 2.0 K/9 from 2008 to 2009.
Juan Pierre was a great fix when Manny Ramirez took time off for a suspension last year. Pierre helped many players win their league, racking up 20 steals in May and June combined. Pierre benefited from a .410 Batting Average on Balls in Play in May to boost his value. If you kept Pierre for the rest of the year, you got only 9 more steals the rest of the way. Now a member of the White Sox, Pierre appears to be getting a final chance with the White Sox. One major fact to note before drafting Pierre is that his steals have declined in each of the last three seasons.
There was a reason the Red Sox wanted to cut David Aardsma; however, the Mariners picked up the still young Rice arm and let him loose to become a dominant closer in 2009. Aardsma struck out a career high 80 batters, had a career best 2.53 ERA and converted 38 saves. Some underlying facts about Aardsma, he benefited significantly from a .257 BABIP, his hits per nine innings went down by just under 3.0 H/9 while his walk rate dropped slightly. Entering his age 28 season, it would not be a surprise if Aardsma doesn't develop into a dominant closer but into a short period of very good play.
