Two of the things that can quickly derail a fantasy baseball season as soon as the day after draft day are: injuries and open competition.
Last year I was riding the Ryan Spilborghs bandwagon, big mistake there. It did not look that bad in the first month of the year when he hit .301/.370/.452; however, Seth Smith caught fire in the summer and put Spilborghs in the fourth outfielder role.
There will be many open competitions this year that fantasy owners, especially in deeper leagues, will have to keep their eyes on. Among these include:
Mets First Base: Omar Minaya told the NJ Star Ledger that first base is indeed an 'open competition.' Daniel Murphy has competition in, Mike Jacobs and both are lefties. Jacobs became a DH in Kansas City and did not fare as well in the junior circuit, hitting .228/.297/.401 for the Royals. Jacobs has the one thing Murphy doesn't: power. Murphy had a .444 slugging percentage in the minors while Jacobs has slugged over .450 in four of his five seasons.
Mets Catcher: Omar must have confidence in Omir Santos, entering his age-29 season and hit .260/.296/.391 in 2009, will likely be the favorite against Chris Coste, Henry Blanco, Josh Thole and non-roster invitee Shawn Riggans. I know the question for most fantasy owners is why care about this situation but in deeper leagues it will be one to watch, if you need to settle on a Met being your 2nd catcher.
Three Players for Two Outfield Spots in Atlanta?: Melky Cabrera could be in an uphill battle against the likes of prospects Jayson Heyward and Jason Schafer while having to stave off platoon-star Matt Diaz as well for the two corner spots next to Nate McLouth this spring. It's likely that Cabrera will hold down a job but there's always a chance that Diaz could sneak in there to platoon, Diaz went .412/.464/.640 against lefties last year.
Rangers First Base: Will Chris Davis finally hit for good, again? He might be pushed by Justin Smoak who has hit in every stop in the minors, hitting .292/.403/.452 in barely over one year in the minors. Davis did not help his stock with an abysmal 2009, .238/.284/.442 in case you forgot, it got so bad that Andruw Jones made his first career start at first base. Davis' good last month of 2009 (.318/.350/.518) is probably the only thing that is holding this back from being an all-out competition. Lefties kill Davis, over the last two years he's hit .226/.271/.428 against them, which leaves the opportunity out there that the switch hitter Smoak can capitalize on.
Marlins First Base: First base might be weak this year if Fantasy players move Jorge Cantu to his likely position at third base and speculate on the Marlins first base situation. Gaby Sanchez has not done anything to establish himself in his cups of coffee at the major league level the past two years. Is Sanchez much better than super-prospect Logan Morrison? Probably not. Add to it that the Fish have a habit of promoting from Double-A, Morrison has hit .289/.375/.459 in the minors, and there might be a quickly developing situation in Miami. Sanchez will get the first crack at the job and has the proven power to have an impact quickly. The biggest surprise has to be that the Fish did not go after a cheap veteran first base option, sorry Wes Helms, for fantasy purposes he doesn't count as an important player.
Where Will Brett Wallace Get His ABs? Brett Wallace, acquired from the Blue Jays, appears to be ready for the big leagues after being traded enough times over the last calendar year. If Wallace gets off to a hot start, he's hit .305/.384/.475 in the minors, he could push Lyle Overbay out of playing time, Edwin Encarnacion out of the lineup or Adam Lind into playing left field full time. Wallace's problem is defense but if his bat is going well, the Blue Jays will have to find somewhere to play him.
