Reader Email: Draft-Based Keepers

Reader James Godbold sent in the following question seeking help with his keeper selections. James's league is similar to my local league, where keepers are not removed form the draft but actually force you to sacrifice draft picks to retain them. It's by far my preferred keeper system, as sacrificing draft picks lead to the Top 50 players almost always still being available, and more strategy when doing trades late in the season.

I'm in a 12 team 6x6 keeper league. Holds and walks are the additional categories. We're allowed 5 keepers per year. We have round inflation for our keepers, so they have to be kept as the pick three rounds up from where they were kept the previous year (an 18th round pick last year would be kept in the 15th round). I'm keeping Longoria as a 9th round pick. Here's the list of players I'm considering w/rounds in parenthesis for the remaining 4 keepers:
Billy Butler (14)
Alexei Ramirez (17)
Julio Borbon (20)
Denard Span (11)
Carlos Gonzalez (21)
Wandy Rodriguez (22)
Jered Weaver (17)
Rick Porcello (21)
Any suggestions would be appreciated. Thanks!

Well, I think Longoria is an easy selection in Round 9. Evan will most likely be a Top 36 (3 rounds) pick, and will give you a great return. No brainer.

For the rest of the players, let's check their ADPs first. CouchManagers lists the following for your remaining players.

Billy Butler 74.2: R7
Alexei Ramirez 90.3: R8
Julio Borbon Unlisted
Denard Span 121.2: R11
Carlos Gonzalez 117.1: R10/11
Wandy Rodriguez 107: R10
Jered Weaver 115.1: R10
Rick Porcello 155: R14

Now, with 5 players kept we can assume you're most likely chopping off about 2-3 rounds of value. Why not 5? Because with this type of a system, elite players are still available. Unlike a straight keeper system when you basically start drafting in Round 6, this system still forces you to try and dance around normal ADP values. I'll start with why you pick Alexei Ramirez before we discuss the other players.

Shortstop is by far the shallowest position this year. After Hanley Ramirez and Troy Tulowitski, you are going to be spending a very valuable pick on locking up players all with similar value. I like the depth at 2B this year, and if your draft last year was mostly conventional, elite second basemen may not be retained. While he's only a Top 10 selection for me at the position, I like the safety of Ramirez, as you've effectively punted SS without sacrificing much. Part of this keeper system is realizing the best players are not always the best keepers and vice versa; Alexei seems like a very low risk selection that lets you not worry about half of your middle infield ration.

Even though Dernard Span's retention value is equal to his ADP, with 5 players removed from play, Span effectively becomes about a 9th round pick. A 24-36 pick selection difference is perfectly acceptable for a player with optimistic 10/30 potential whose high walk total is a huge boost in your league. Span may not be a clear value win, but he's a safe selection: a 3/4 OF you can use in platoon. Pairing Span with a player like Granderson can turn a 30 HR player who's an automatic out vs lefties into a 30/15 player. I think 2011 will be Span's year to be more than a slap hitting, high OBP center fielder. Another jump in doubles could mean a 2011 breakout. This makes me hesitant to recommend him this year at that price.

Billy Butler is flying up draft boards, with 850+ OPS projections becoming the standard. His ADP would land him in your 4th-5th round, and having his name available 10 rounds later is a huge bargain. Butler becomes my second selection, as his doubles and homerun spikes are a good gamble to take that late in your draft.

At this point, stocking up on value pitchers so late would be a huge boost. Wandy, Weaver, and Porcello all have significant value with their extremely low draft positions, and all 3 pitchers are similarly ranked, solid #3 starters. Wandy had the lowest xFIP of the bunch and the highest strikeout potential. His walk rate has dropped every year, and Minute Maid is at worst a neutral park, contrary to what Joe Buck and Tim McCarver think. Wandy is your 3rd selection, as his 23rd round slot is absurdly good.

Weaver and Porcello are tough to pick from. At this stage on your draft, I don't think the 4 rounds will make much of a difference. Porcello has nothing but growing to do, a slightly lower xFIP, an excellent ground ball rate(54%) but a very poor strikeout rate. Jered Weaver is dependent upon fly balls landing to a competent outfield, but carries much more strikeout potential. I lean towards Weaver purely because the difference in strikeouts can be enough to make or break your strikeout totals.

While I'm not a huge fan passing on Span, especially with your league setup, I think the 5 selections of Longoria(9), Ramirez(17), Butler(14), Weaver(17), and Rodriguez(23) is the right call. You've locked down the middle of your rotation very cheaply, taken a safe option at shortstop you won't have to fight for, and have a great reach candidate in Butler, all at excellent values. Once your league's keepers are announced, come back with your draft order and the players not available, and we can try to formulate a strategy for you!

Good luck!