I found another perfect pair to show draft value. Both had break-out seasons in their own right, and they’re pretty similar in ability and stats, but one player is more highly valued in drafts than the other. For this reason, you should target Andre Ethier instead of Adam Lind.
This article really isn’t meant to put down Adam Lind. I liked him as a sleeper going into 2009, and he didn’t disappoint. I think he’s a great OF who will give plenty of value, though not as much as Ethier compared to draft position. Regardless, I’ll nitpick at a few of Lind’s numbers.
Looking at his BABIP, Lind had three stellar months: .385 for March/April, .349 in June, and .365 in August. The downside to this is that he also had three months below the league average of .300: .293, .258, and .289. When his BABIP drops, his BA predictably goes down with it, partially due to his lack of speed. Also, his 2009 BABIP (.323) was higher than 2009 (.317) and his career (.314). If it drops five to ten points, he probably won’t maintain his .300 average. Not that you can’t live with .290 if he hits another 35 HR; he’s still a great hitter who’s worthy of a #1 OF slot.
However, Andre Ethier really isn’t that far behind Lind in production. Looking at the surface stats, he reached 30 HR, 100 RBI, and 90 R, just like Lind did. In 2009, Ethier’s weakness was his average (.272), but that can be tied directly to his BABIP. While Lind enjoyed a career high in BABIP, Ethier had his career low at .289, which is below league average and his own career average of .317. Notice the close career BABIP of both players; in 2009, one had good luck, and one had bad luck, that’s all. Ethier’s second half BABIP (.321) and average (.298) show a more likely baseline for 2010 than his weak .250 BA in the first half.
Some worry about Ethier’s terrible BA against lefties (.194), but look at his equally low BABIP against lefties, at .215. Even if you don’t expect him to do as well against lefties, a small bounce-back will help level him out and get his overall average back to the .290 range. And for those that would claim Lind is a better balanced hitter than Ethier, look again at BABIP: Lind got lucky again, with a .339 mark against lefties. Lind’s BA against lefties will drop in 2010, and Ethier’s will rise, eliminating any perceived difference.
The big difference between these two hitters is in their perceived draft value. Mock Draft Central shows that Lind’s ADP is 46, with a high of 31 and a low of 58. Ethier shows a lot better value, with an ADP of 67, a high 47, and a low of 91. How can two hitters with similar stats and abilities be going two rounds apart? A lot of owners must have drafted Ethier last year and were burned early on, so I bet they’re avoiding him this year. However, Lind’s latest position is still below Ethier’s average draft slot, and Ethier’s highest position is at Lind’s average. Those two points scream “value” to me. Don’t overreach for Lind in 2010; instead, fill a more important hole on your team and grab Ethier in one of the next two rounds.
