Sleepers for 2010: Brett Anderson

Registering at a respectable 154.3 ADP over at Couch Managers, I'm here to tell you today about why your 13th round selection of Brett Anderson is going to pay off, and pay off in a big way.

Anderson was part of a hyped up Athletics infant team, with the equally baby-faced Trevor Cahill. Cahill was receiving more "right now" press last year, even though Anderson had the overall better pedigree. Cahill struggled with his strikeouts (only a 4.53 K/9) and ended up finish the season in the mid to high 4s of ERA, consistent with his very low K/BB.

Anderson is our subject, however, and his performance last year shouldn't go unnoticed.

While Brett started out the season poorly, he improved as the season went on, finishing with excellent rookie peripherals. An above average K/9 (7.70), a respectable BB/9 (2.30), a strong K/BB (3.33), and an above average groundball rate (50.9%) all contributed to Anderson's season ending xFIP of 3.61. All of the good Anderson did was sneakily hidden by his early struggles and his unlucky LOB%, which helped puff up his ERA above the 4.0 range.

It would be easy to cherry pick some comparables: Roy Halladay (I know!) and Josh Johnson had very similar ground ball and K/BB rates. While their fantasy stats weren't quite the same, mainly attributed to Wins and ERA, we have to make sure we judge the player's actual skills, as until we find some real patterns of chance based stats going in a player's favor (like a pitcher who sustains an inhuman BABIP for years), I think my best comparable for Anderson would be Adam Wainwright.

Wainwright initial season (albiet in the bullpen) had extremely similar lines, his first season starting for the Cardinals was very close to Anderson's. Wainwright walked a handful more batters, and was still learning to improve his strikeouts, but he kept up his high 40s ground ball rate. Adam continued to improve the next couple years into the pitcher we know today.

Now, I'm not trying to compare the two on a level that Baseball Prospectus does. However, for two pitchers with similar initial years, what I am telling you is that betting on Anderson past the 11th (his highest I've seen so far) round into round 13 should be getting you the same return managers have cashed in with Wainwright recently.

Long term keeper leagues should really pay attention to him, as a young pitcher who's already showing above average strikeout and ground ball potential that also showed amazing strides turning around his walk rate mid season. Brett may not go unnoticed after this year, and I think he's a much better target than a guy like JA Happ, whos' valued about 20 picks higher than Anderson.

You may not get the Wins in Oakland right away, but if you're like me, and he's your keeper and locked in at a reasonable price, the benefits beyond 2010 could be huge.