During the conclusion of 2009 and into this year's playoffs, we'll be compiling our current Top 100 rankings for next year.
All 6 authors will be taking turns nominating whom they think are the best fantasy players in baseball, along with our first two big sleepers of 2010 upon conclusion. We'll also neatly wrap up and revise our initial Top 100 in the offseason, so you'll always have a quick list to use right before draft time.
In Part 4 this week, we'll be looking at players 37-48.
37. Jimmy Rollins (Aaron Murray)
I wrote here about why I think Rollins will be undervalued going into '10 based almost entirely on historically poor BABIP in '09. He may have lost some power - although his '09 ISO was the third best of his career - but the bottom line is that Rollins has a very good chance to be a top two SS next year.
Kevin: I expect Tulowitzki to retain the #2 SS spot in 2010. But really, Tulo, Rollins, and Reyes could come in 2, 3, and 4 in any order for 2010.
38. C.C. Sabathia (Ryan Restivo)
The Yankees got him for his postseason (3-1 1.98 ERA, 32 SO, 1.02 WHIP) not for his April (1-2 4.73 ERA, 19 SO, 1.39 WHIP). Sabathia was a monster with the Brewers in 2008 (11-2 1.65 ERA and 128 SO in 17 starts) and has probably one more year of dominance until we see a decline. All of his numbers trend toward at least one more elite season until we might see that decline begin. But the Yankees got their championship, so it was definitely worth it.
Aaron: The fact that 2009 was CC's worst year since '05 in K/9, BB/9, and FIP was somewhat masked by his lowest BABIP since his rookie year. He should still be a very good option for fantasy managers next year but don't be surprised if his WHIP elevates out of the teens and his ERA is closer to the mid 3's than the low 3's.
39. Justin Verlander (Kevin Jebens)
Led majors in strikeouts. Posted career bests in K/9 and BB/9, along with WHIP. And the scary part? He had the highest BABIP of his career! If that falls even to his career average, 2010 could be even better. I think his breakout is for real (did you see that FIP, at 2.80?), and I'm ready to bank on a mid-3.00 ERA and a WHIP under 1.20, not to mention 200 strikeouts, from here on out.
Aaron: I expected Verlander to get more respect in the Cy Young voting this year with his 19 wins and 268 K's and I agree that he's an elite fantasy option. The only warning sign I see is that his FB% has gone up every year since he got to the majors. His 7.4 HR/FB% in '09 seems unsustainable but his career mark over 840 innings is only 8.2%.
40. Curtis Granderson (Lee Perrault)
I can't pass on this rating after the trade to New York. A left handed righty masher batting in what might be the best launching pad in baseball for left handed righty mashers? And he's not at first base? Sign me up (stupid Yankees).
While Granderson has some real problems versus left handers, I'd be perfectly happy acquiring him as my 2nd outfielder and sitting him against lefties. If you can supplement his bat with an upcoming speedster in a cavernous ballpark (Fowler, McCutchen), you might create a 30+/30+ monster.
I find outfielders run alternately deep and shallow year to year. In 2010, we're looking at quite a deep run at the 1A level after Braun (Upton, Kemp, Sizemore), and Granderson to me leads the next rung below that, as much as I will hate every fiber of my being for relying on a potent Yankee offense. Remember, keep emotions out of fantasy.
Kevin: Granderson has always been a favorite because of his HR/SB combo. I expect his HR to be higher than his SB from now on, in Yankee Stadium. But aside from a below-fantasy-average BA, there's nothing wrong with him, and his padded stats will more than make up for that lower average.
41. Pablo Sandoval (Kevin Jebens)
Youkilis gets props for having dual eligibility. Pablo's got it too--and if your league is REALLY generous, he qualifies at catcher, too. Youk has hit over .300 the last two years, and he's known for his great OBP. Pablo hit .345 in his rookie debut, and he kept it up with a .330 BA in 2009, not to mention a very respectable .387 OBP. It looks like Pablo can keep up with Youk in HR, too, hitting 25 compared to Youk's 27 in 2009. The only area Sandoval lags behind is in runs, because he plays for a poor offensive team. The big plus here is that Sandoval is young and can still grow at age 24.
Lee: If available as a catcher in your league, Sandoval becomes a legitimate elite player. I love him as a potential keeper selection, especially if grandfathered into catcher.
42. Victor Martinez (Aaron Murray)
2009 was V-Mart's best offensive season ever as measured by wOBA, and his ISO was the third highest of his career. Playing in Boston he should provide extremely good numbers for a catcher in all categories except steals.
43. Dustin Pedroia (Kevin Jebens)
Middle infielders, especially 2B, are relatively available in 2010. However it's hard to pass up on guys like Pedroia, who are sure to remain at the top of their position. He matched or nearly met his MVP numbers in several categories: R, HR, SB, OBP, ct%. Though you wouldn't know it by looking at OBP, he improved his eye and walk rate because his 2009 BA (.296) was lower than in 2008 (.326), yet his OBP dropped only 4 points (.374 to .370). He's better at home than away, but anyone at the top of the Red Sox order will produce great fantasy stats no matter what. Pedroia's got an outside shot at a 20/20 season, with top-notch contributions in the other 3 standard categories, especially runs.
44. Jose Reyes (Lee Perrault)
Hamstrings are scary, but this is still a player who was a legitimate Top 5 pick last year. While I normally stick with very safe picks, this is one time i tend to break away: when the return can be huge.
Shortstop isn't as deep as second base this year, and being able to lock up the steals category at the most historically weak offensive positions is always a huge plus. Reyes's value drops if he stumbles with recovery during spring training, but he's still worth a gamble in most league's 4th round.
Aaron: If you do pick Reyes just make sure you don't take too many other risks on your roster.
Kevin: As of January they're still claiming he should be 100%-ish by spring training. If that's the case, Reyes certainly jumps up higher on the ranking list than mid-40s. The problem is that until he's got a month of games under his belt, you won't know if he's really healthy--and you won't know if he'll be more reserved at stealing because of the injury. If he cuts back on attempts because he doesn't want to aggravate the hammy again, and he only steals 40 bases, that's good but not elite. If he goes back to stealing 50+, he jumps back up to near Ellsbury and Crawford in terms of draft value.
45. Javier Vazquez (Troy Patterson)
If not for poor luck in Atlanta and if his win total had been improved he would have contended for best pitcher in fantasy last year. Here is a run down of how he finished; 9th in ERA, 4th in strikeouts, 13th in walks, 3rd in K/BB and 1st in xFIP. Now, though, it becomes the question of what happens when a) he returns to the AL, and b) plays in Yankee Stadium for 50% of his games.
All 6 authors will be taking turns nominating whom they think are the best fantasy players in baseball, along with our first two big sleepers of 2010 upon conclusion. We'll also neatly wrap up and revise our initial Top 100 in the offseason, so you'll always have a quick list to use right before draft time.
In Part 4 this week, we'll be looking at players 37-48.
37. Jimmy Rollins (Aaron Murray)
I wrote here about why I think Rollins will be undervalued going into '10 based almost entirely on historically poor BABIP in '09. He may have lost some power - although his '09 ISO was the third best of his career - but the bottom line is that Rollins has a very good chance to be a top two SS next year.
Kevin: I expect Tulowitzki to retain the #2 SS spot in 2010. But really, Tulo, Rollins, and Reyes could come in 2, 3, and 4 in any order for 2010.
38. C.C. Sabathia (Ryan Restivo)
The Yankees got him for his postseason (3-1 1.98 ERA, 32 SO, 1.02 WHIP) not for his April (1-2 4.73 ERA, 19 SO, 1.39 WHIP). Sabathia was a monster with the Brewers in 2008 (11-2 1.65 ERA and 128 SO in 17 starts) and has probably one more year of dominance until we see a decline. All of his numbers trend toward at least one more elite season until we might see that decline begin. But the Yankees got their championship, so it was definitely worth it.
Aaron: The fact that 2009 was CC's worst year since '05 in K/9, BB/9, and FIP was somewhat masked by his lowest BABIP since his rookie year. He should still be a very good option for fantasy managers next year but don't be surprised if his WHIP elevates out of the teens and his ERA is closer to the mid 3's than the low 3's.
39. Justin Verlander (Kevin Jebens)
Led majors in strikeouts. Posted career bests in K/9 and BB/9, along with WHIP. And the scary part? He had the highest BABIP of his career! If that falls even to his career average, 2010 could be even better. I think his breakout is for real (did you see that FIP, at 2.80?), and I'm ready to bank on a mid-3.00 ERA and a WHIP under 1.20, not to mention 200 strikeouts, from here on out.
Aaron: I expected Verlander to get more respect in the Cy Young voting this year with his 19 wins and 268 K's and I agree that he's an elite fantasy option. The only warning sign I see is that his FB% has gone up every year since he got to the majors. His 7.4 HR/FB% in '09 seems unsustainable but his career mark over 840 innings is only 8.2%.
40. Curtis Granderson (Lee Perrault)
I can't pass on this rating after the trade to New York. A left handed righty masher batting in what might be the best launching pad in baseball for left handed righty mashers? And he's not at first base? Sign me up (stupid Yankees).
While Granderson has some real problems versus left handers, I'd be perfectly happy acquiring him as my 2nd outfielder and sitting him against lefties. If you can supplement his bat with an upcoming speedster in a cavernous ballpark (Fowler, McCutchen), you might create a 30+/30+ monster.
I find outfielders run alternately deep and shallow year to year. In 2010, we're looking at quite a deep run at the 1A level after Braun (Upton, Kemp, Sizemore), and Granderson to me leads the next rung below that, as much as I will hate every fiber of my being for relying on a potent Yankee offense. Remember, keep emotions out of fantasy.
Kevin: Granderson has always been a favorite because of his HR/SB combo. I expect his HR to be higher than his SB from now on, in Yankee Stadium. But aside from a below-fantasy-average BA, there's nothing wrong with him, and his padded stats will more than make up for that lower average.
41. Pablo Sandoval (Kevin Jebens)
Youkilis gets props for having dual eligibility. Pablo's got it too--and if your league is REALLY generous, he qualifies at catcher, too. Youk has hit over .300 the last two years, and he's known for his great OBP. Pablo hit .345 in his rookie debut, and he kept it up with a .330 BA in 2009, not to mention a very respectable .387 OBP. It looks like Pablo can keep up with Youk in HR, too, hitting 25 compared to Youk's 27 in 2009. The only area Sandoval lags behind is in runs, because he plays for a poor offensive team. The big plus here is that Sandoval is young and can still grow at age 24.
Lee: If available as a catcher in your league, Sandoval becomes a legitimate elite player. I love him as a potential keeper selection, especially if grandfathered into catcher.
42. Victor Martinez (Aaron Murray)
2009 was V-Mart's best offensive season ever as measured by wOBA, and his ISO was the third highest of his career. Playing in Boston he should provide extremely good numbers for a catcher in all categories except steals.
43. Dustin Pedroia (Kevin Jebens)
Middle infielders, especially 2B, are relatively available in 2010. However it's hard to pass up on guys like Pedroia, who are sure to remain at the top of their position. He matched or nearly met his MVP numbers in several categories: R, HR, SB, OBP, ct%. Though you wouldn't know it by looking at OBP, he improved his eye and walk rate because his 2009 BA (.296) was lower than in 2008 (.326), yet his OBP dropped only 4 points (.374 to .370). He's better at home than away, but anyone at the top of the Red Sox order will produce great fantasy stats no matter what. Pedroia's got an outside shot at a 20/20 season, with top-notch contributions in the other 3 standard categories, especially runs.
44. Jose Reyes (Lee Perrault)
Hamstrings are scary, but this is still a player who was a legitimate Top 5 pick last year. While I normally stick with very safe picks, this is one time i tend to break away: when the return can be huge.
Shortstop isn't as deep as second base this year, and being able to lock up the steals category at the most historically weak offensive positions is always a huge plus. Reyes's value drops if he stumbles with recovery during spring training, but he's still worth a gamble in most league's 4th round.
Aaron: If you do pick Reyes just make sure you don't take too many other risks on your roster.
Kevin: As of January they're still claiming he should be 100%-ish by spring training. If that's the case, Reyes certainly jumps up higher on the ranking list than mid-40s. The problem is that until he's got a month of games under his belt, you won't know if he's really healthy--and you won't know if he'll be more reserved at stealing because of the injury. If he cuts back on attempts because he doesn't want to aggravate the hammy again, and he only steals 40 bases, that's good but not elite. If he goes back to stealing 50+, he jumps back up to near Ellsbury and Crawford in terms of draft value.
45. Javier Vazquez (Troy Patterson)
If not for poor luck in Atlanta and if his win total had been improved he would have contended for best pitcher in fantasy last year. Here is a run down of how he finished; 9th in ERA, 4th in strikeouts, 13th in walks, 3rd in K/BB and 1st in xFIP. Now, though, it becomes the question of what happens when a) he returns to the AL, and b) plays in Yankee Stadium for 50% of his games.
As long as he can avoid pitching from the stretch he is a much better pitcher, but his numbers will fall some. I would still look for him around here, and you can be assured the wins will be as good no matter what, because he's now pitching for the Yankees.
Lee: Vazquez may be a steal in some leagues, as managers may not be able to forget his first unlucky tour in Yankee Stadium.
Kevin: I'll add that he had other "blah" seasons in the AL, with the White Sox (though he also had a good year with them). There's a chance people will buy too much into the "can't play in AL, only good in NL" concept. (But then why did he have a high ERA for Arizona in 2005?) If that happens you've got a chance to buy low, especially if he struggles in his first start or two in New York and someone's looking to dump him.
46. Jon Lester (Lee Perrault)
An overlooked Cy Young candidate in 2009, Lester's Big 3 stats (K/9, BB/9, GB/9) keep improving year to year. He's now the real ace of the Boston rotation, and easily one of the AL's Top 5 starting pitcher.
While his recent injury history made his improvements a little more masked, what has he done that Verlander, Vazquez, and Sabathia have not? I don't see much of a difference anymore.
Aaron: Lester took a huge jump in 2009 in K/9, 9.96 from a previous high of 7.14. If he can maintain anything near last year's mark he could be a fantastic value but I wish I could put my finger on exactly why that jump happened. His FB was 1.5 mph faster in 2009 but that actually made it less effective according to Fangraphs. Maybe he was more effective because of the increased separation between his FB and Cutter/Curve.
47. Josh Hamilton (Troy Patterson)
He was never a good first round choice, but this year it looks like he might be undervalued slightly. He has good potential at all five categories in a good home park. His health will surely be a concern, but I like him to be better than 2009 and not as good as 2008.
Kevin: I missed the bus on his breakout year, and he could be great again. But I'm also not sold on his being drafted ahead of guys with less raw talent but more reliability.
48. Justin Morneau (Lee Perrault)
First base is extremely deep this year again, and Morneau's is just another solid part of this group. While he's not a 2nd round pick, like his previous ADP reflected the past few years, his overvalued past might finally work in your favor.
Enough managers may pass on him after his short 2009, and grabbing Morneau in the late 3rd round, early 4th round could bring a huge return. His wOBA hasn't quite rebounded to his 2006 from, but his plate discipline has slowly been improving since then. I've called Morneau out in the past at being overrated in fantasy, pointing mainly to lucky RBI totals, but this looks like the year you can really cash in on him.
Kevin: Lee, I'm in the same boat. I think people grab him way too early. That being said, he's a solid option.
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