Grading Joel Pineiro's Fantasy Value

Joel Pineiro was a big surprise in 2009 with a huge breakout as a member of the St Louis Cardinals pitching staff. He reinvented himself by pushing his ground ball rate over 60% and still maintaining a great K/BB at 3.89. This was all control though as his K/9 was only 4.42.

I was curious how this low strikeout total would effect his contract negotiations for next year and he was able to get a solid 2 year deal for $16 million dollars. In this new developing market that seems like a good deal for both team and player.

Moving on to look at how the move effects his fantasy value. His infield defense should be solid enough although we can't be sure of Brandon Wood's value there. His TotalZone projections are below average and include minor league data so could be trouble.

Being that the Cardinals gave a lot of time to Skip Shumaker and Khalil Greene last year his defense even if Wood is below average should be much improved. If he maintains a 60% ground ball rate he won't have to worry much about the poor outfield defending from Torii Hunter and Bobby Abreu. Not to mention if they give any time in the field to Hideki Matsui.

So his defense is improved, but the stadium move plays against him. According to Baseball-Reference Busch Stadium has played slightly to pitchers averaging a 99 score over the past three years (below 100 favors pitchers). Angel Stadium on the other hand has played at an average of 101 over the last three years. How much will that effect him? Probably not to much and less than his gain in defense.

In the end I expect much of the same with perhaps a slight regression in ground ball rate. Projection systems do not like his turn around though and Bill James, CHONE and MARCEL all call for an ERA over 4.00 next year. They also expect a HR/9 to climb from 0.46 to over 0.80. This is a sign they are calling for a drop in his GB%.

Unless the Angels try to change him though I don't think he is going to suddenly drop back to 48.5%. Assuming he maintains a rate over 50% and hopefully above 55% he will be a solid late round starter for ERA, W and WHIP. He is being selected now around the 20th round and a good choice there being that his 2009 had him worth a 7th round pick in value.