Five-category players are always valued, as are young players who have yet to reach their potential. However, every year there seems to be some who fall farther in the draft than others. Last year Shin-soo Choo didn’t get any love as he often fell behind prospect Adam Jones; this year Choo’s ADP on both Couch Managers and Mock Draft Central finally surpasses Jones. In 2010, two different HR/SB threats are getting very different levels of love from owners: Nelson Cruz isn’t valued as high as Jayson Werth. Here are the 2009 stats for both.
Werth: .268/98/36/99/20 in 571 AB
Cruz: .260/75/33/76/20 in 462 AB
Part of the difference in R and RBI can easily be explained by Cruz’s fewer AB. It could be argued that Werth might be the better overall player, partly because he walks more than Cruz. But here’s where the big difference, and Cruz’s better value, lies: ADP. Below are the ADP numbers from Couch Managers, followed by Mock Draft Central.
Werth: 41, 34
Cruz: 69, 67
What’s more, Werth’s lowest draft position on MDC (51) is just below Cruz’s highest draft position (45). Even if you think Werth is the better player, you have to strongly consider the fact that you can get a very similar player two rounds later.
The funny thing is that Cruz is mimicking Werth’s career path; Cruz is just one year younger and one year behind Werth. Both had a small but good showing at age 28. Both had a solid first full year, Werth in 2008 and Cruz in 2009. I remember a lot of people doubting that Werth would take yet another step forward in 2009, but he did, and now in 2010 owners have to pay full value. It’s the same thing with Cruz: when someone breaks out at an older age, enough owners doubt his ability that he’s still a value play next year. The ADP clearly shows that’s happening with Cruz in 2010, just like it did with Werth in 2009.
Ron Shandler projects Werth at .262/96/35/98/20, while Cruz is listed for .274/83/36/103/18. CHONE’s projections are harsh for both, but they’re very similar: .265/73/23/73/12 for Werth and .265/71/27/79/12 for Cruz. Either way, you’re looking at practically the same fantasy value, but you can get one of those players at a big discount compared to the other one.
Instead of overspending on Werth, a player with more name and team recognition, take the small risk to get Nelson Cruz two rounds later. You may even end up with a better player in the end, and it’ll cost you quite a bit less.
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