Rich Harden is a perennial enigma for fantasy managers, a strikeout pitcher of the highest order with poor plate control and an allergy to playing in actual Major League games. In the past the question marks have always made him a gamble but it looks like he'll be dropping far enough in drafts to make the gamble profitable this year.
In 2009 Harden burned managers with his actual pitching for the first time as he posted an ERA of 4.09 and a WHIP of 1.34. That 4.09 ERA actually outperformed his FIP of 4.35 although digging deeper we find a perfectly acceptable 3.70 xFIP. Harden's FIP was inflated by the highest HR/FB% of his career and the second highest FB% of his career.
The projection systems all see Harden keeping his K abilities next year but they are a bit split on his FIP, with Bill James and the Fans clocking in at 3.67 and 3.66 respectively and CHONE and Marcel guessing 4.08 and 4.02. In this case I think I'm going to have to side with the Fans and Bill James as he hasn't posted an xFIP over 4.00 since his second year in the majors and much of last year's problems can be attributed to an inflated BABIP and one of the top five HR/FB% in the majors. He's going in the 16th round over at couchmanagers.com and in the 19th round at mockdraftcentral.com. Either way he should be on your radar, especially if you find yourself needing K's in the later rounds.
