Friday Review - Aug 7 2009

Post Deadline Review.

RotoSavants Articles Revisit

• Jake Peavy might get a bit uncomfortable in US Cellular Field and the AL
• Madison Bumgarner might want to wait till 2010 to make his MLB debut
• Michael Young and Pablo Sandoval look similar, but what about 2010?
  

Keeping Up with RotoSavants

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Friends of RotoSavants

• Is a Veteran or Rookie more valuable late in the season? (RotoGraphs)
• Paul Singman at THT looks at Pitch Values for matchup analysis (THT Fantasy Focus)
• Non-Fantasy: A look at evaluating Catcher Defense (Beyond the Box Score)
  

Minor League Talents - Brian Matusz

Time to bring back the Minor League Talent segment as we near the September roster expansion. You can look through some of the older Minor League Talents at the end of this article. I will start with some players getting their first look a bit early here in August.

Brian Matusz - SP - Baltimore Orioles

Injury and Health
No injuries in his time with the Orioles since being drafted in the first round of the 2008 draft. No reason to be overly concerned for injuries yet.

Skill Set
Brian Matusz has been under the shadow of Chris Tillman this year in the Baltimore Orioles system, but has made his debut last night and has people excited about the future of the Orioles staff. Minor League Ball gave these thoughts before 2009 started:

3) Brian Matusz, LHP, Grade B+: Not David Price, but should advance quickly due to sharp command of solid stuff.

A B+ had him tied with Chris Tillman by their ranking and behind Matt Wieters. He was one of the best lefties in the 2008 draft and has 4 quality pitches according to the ScoutingBook.com. He also ranked #25 in Baseball America's top 100 right behind Tillman at #22.

Now we have some Double-A starts to look at for seeing what he can be. In High A this year he dominated with a K/9 of 10.13 and a BB/9 of 2.84. That has fallen slightly in Double-A, but still solid at 8.94 and 2.14 for a 4.18 K/BB. Although he was considered behind David Price in 2008 his numbers mirror Price closely through Double-A.

Price had a K/BB of 3.44 in 57 IP at Double-A with a K/9 of 8.68. Price has been known for his solid groundball rates, but that has fallen the past few years and has hit a remarkably low 36.9% this season. I suspect Matusz might have some walk issues like Price, but he could out pitch him as well if he can keep his groundball rate above 40% as he has done in Double-A.

Last night Matusz won his debut start in the majors and as expected he had some issues with walks. He pitched 5 innings and had 5 strikeouts, but walked 3 batters. We don't want to read to much into one start here, but keeping an eye on his walks would be a good idea.

Here is a video of Brian Matusz in the arizona Fall League:

Major League ETA
He's here and Baltimore seems to really have the young players to turn things around soon. With Tillman, Wieters, Nolan Reimold and Matusz already here the team will look to have a Tampa Rays type of turn around soon.

Conclusion and Advice
A speculation grab in deep leagues seems warranted. Keeper leagues he is a must add as he is one of the top prospects in baseball right now. How much can he add this year is tough to guess. Before last night he had 113 IP combined in the minors. I'm sure he'll have a limit on a losing team, but what that is I don't know.

Tags: Brian Matusz, Orioles, Baltimore, Fantasy Baseball, Prospect

Jake Peavy and Ball Park Factors

Chicago and US Cellular Field could have been the worst destination for Jake Peavy to go to in my opinion. Sure there is Coors Field (still in the NL), Yankees Stadium (almost 100 more runs scored) or Citizen's Bank Park(NL and 50+ runs). None of these have all the downsides of the White Sox. Peavy now has to call his home park a hitters park for the first time and no longer can boost his K/9 against the other pitcher.

I'm not saying Peavy will be a bust in Chicago, but let's be honest. With an addition of 4-5 homers per season, based on an increase from a HR/FB of ~9% to ~11%, will hurt him. Those 4-5 homers will add a minimum of 0.25 runs to his ERA/FIP.

Next we should look at the switch from the NL to the AL. His K/BB has been elite since 2004 staying over 3 every season except 2008. Looking at his splits in interleague play he even has a better K/BB in interleague games than his career rate, but that would include home games with AL pitchers batting.

His career FIP stands at 3.47 up from his career ERA of 3.21, which is very close to the change of 0.25 I suggested with the additional home runs. As a 3.50 ERA pitcher he still has the chance to be a top pitcher, but he is no longer on of the best.

An interesting comparison is the former White Sox pitcher Javier Vazquez who is #12 on Peavy's comparables list according to PECOTA. Sure Vazquez has consistently underperformed his FIP, but he has pitched in stadiums that favored batters almost his whole career.

This season Vazquez has seen a move to a better park and have his HR/9 drop from consistently over 1 and as high as 1.50 in NY to 0.77 this season. Peavy has a career 0.90 and has been as low as 0.52. Vazquez had other problems to keep his ERA over his FIP, but Peavy should expect a rise in ERA for sure.

Peavy has shown an ability to raise his LOB%, which is a weakness for Vazquez. This will keep Peavy ahead of his FIP, but will he be worth the $52 million left on his deal. He also has a $22 million dollar option that needs a $4 million buyout. If you look at this THT model of trade analysis you can see Adam Gutteridge thinks this was the worst trade of the deadline by far.

From a fantasy perspective Peavy becomes a middle of the pack talent. His name will still hold value, but likely gets overvalue in drafts much like Matt Holliday did when moving to Oakland. For the rest of this year Peavy is hoping to be back at the end of the month. The small sample size in September could lead to his value changing a lot based on how he does.

Tags: Jake Peavy, White Sox, Baseball, MLB

The Kung Fu Panda meets Michael Young

In this weeks Clone Wars at THT I look at two third basemen with an OPS over .900. Their lines are very similar and if not for Michael Youngs eligibility at shortstop they would be equal. Heading into 2010 though I like Pablo Sandoval better to repeat these numbers and perhaps get better. Head on over to read the rest of the article.

Revisting Madison Bumgarner

Before the start of this year I looked at Madison Bumgarner and thought the future looked really good. I didn't think he would get a shot this year, but 2010 looked like a possibility. He hasn't slowed when it comes to wins and ERA, but we all know they can be deceiving. There are some marks for concern and I am hoping the Giants give him plenty of time to mature.

His ERA has barely moved at any level going from 1.46 last year in A ball to 1.48 in High A this year. When he moved to Double-A this year he barely went anywhere with a 1.90 ERA so far. The concern is his pitching skills have dropped quickly so far this year.

In 2008 his K/9 was a solid 10.42 and a elite walk rate of 1.33. Sure that 7.81 K/BB was exciting, but weighted by the level of competition. This year it has dropped to 5.75 in A+ and then 2.60 in Double-A. Not only has his K/9 dropped to 6.59, but the walk rate is also climbing at 2.54.

He has 71 IP at Double-A now so the ratios are getting quite solid. He just turned 20 years old and has plenty of time to mature, but a rush to the majors right now might not be what he needs. The 1.90 ERA is sure to be teasing the Giants front office and for sure their fan base.

His FIP in Double-A so far is 3.40, but his HR/9 of 0.51 looks low for a pitcher with only a 41% groundball rate. His FIP might even be higher based on that.

I still like him and want to watch his next 100 IP to see what is possible, but I am looking much closer now. He has yet to top 5 strikeouts in a game since 5/23 and would be well served to finish 2009 in Double-A.

Tags: Madison Bumgarner, Giants, Baseball, Minor League