Tommy Hanson Hangs on the Edge

Sure Tommy Hanson has looked good so far with an ERA of 2.25 in 36.0 IP, but there are some warning signs that he is not ready yet and going to be struggling before the year is out. He still has a good pedigree and , but before you trust your 2009 season to him you should be aware he can't keep this up.

Hanson has been an elite strikeout pitcher in the minors, which have helped to compensate for his higher walk rate. He had a 12.21 K/9 in Triple-A before his call up and a 5.29 K/BB. This all looked good and showed he was ready for the next step.

So far though the hitters are not fooled by his stuff and he has only had a 5.29 K/9 in 36 IP. That is a huge fall from his 10-12 K/9 in the minors and with 154 batters faced his K/9 should be pretty stable. I'm sure he has more work to do to establish his pitches, but most pitchers only struggle with their walk rates when they reach the majors. Hanson also has a 4.50 BB/9, but I remain more concerned about the huge drop in K/9.

He has yet to strikeout more than 5 hitters in one game and has 4 games with as many if not more walks than strikeouts. His ERA has been so low though with plenty of luck. His BABIP is currently at .227 and an LOB% of 89.4%. This would make his FIP 4.87, but with a HR/F of 9.4% his xFIP is 5.47.

In keeper leagues his long term value is still high as many pitchers struggle early, but in one year leagues I would move him with such great value right now. Pitchers just can't control these numbers and he will soon regress to the mean.

Keep an eye out for any increase in strikeouts, but I don't think he will be similar to a Jered Weaver from 2006. Weaver had a K/BB of 3.18 that season in 123 IP and was truly a dominant pitcher. Counting on rookies is always dangerous and could quickly damage your season. I would pass on Hanson in single season leagues for now.

Mark Reynolds takes the next step

I was a huge Mark Reynolds fan this preseason and recommended him as one of my favorites this year. I noted he finished top 5 in three categories last year and 7 in RBI. Obviously average was his one weakness, but he was still a great player with amazing power. This year he has absolutely blown the numbers away and making those of us picking him look really smart.

His plate numbers haven't changed much as he is walking at a 11.6%, which is only up slightly from his 10.6%. Then his strikeout rate is similar to last year down slightly to 36.7% from 37.8%. Overall he is showing the same numbers at the plate, but it is concerning that his LD% is down to 14% from a career rate of 18.2%. This could lead to a lowering BABIP if it doesn't return to normal rates.

So what about the power? Last year Matt Williams made the comment he thought that Reynolds would hit 50 homers some day. What scouting or info he based this on I don't know, but he sure looks smart right now. He won't reach 50 this year, but a 40 homer season is within his grasp. He does have a 38% rate of Just Enough homers which is a bit high, but even a final count of 35-38 homers would make a great return on your investment. (hittracker)

The true surprise this year though is the speed. I used his Bill James projection in my sleeper article which was: .269 BA, 32 HR, 101 R, 105 RBI, 10 SB. A total of 10 steals would be nice at third base, but to have 13 before the All-Star break is amazing. According to many his current stats have him as the second ranked third baseman to David Wright, but that is based on a unmaintainable BABIP. I project Reynolds will be the number 1 third baseman for 2009 when the season is over.

Fernando Nieve test case

Every season several rookie pitchers cause massive pickups by getting off to a great start and then burn their owners with several bad games. Fernando Nieve was a clear case of fantasy managers rushing to grad the next hot pitcher based on ERA and W, but not on expected future outcomes.

I expect many who read this site probably didn't pick him up, but if you did I hope Monday night was enough of a sign to cut bait while you still can. Lets look at his minor league numbers first and see if there is any sign of the pitcher who went 3-0 with a 1.48 ERA in his first 3 starts (not counting his first relief appearance).

He has totalled 734.1 innings in the minors with more than 200 in Triple-A, so we have a good sample size and his K/BB in all those innings is 2.44. That looks pretty good, but he has struggled to get to that level in Triple-A. His Triple-A K/BB is 2.13 and that has resulted in an ERA of 5.03 at that level. Most of his success came in Double-A where his ERA was 2.83 and he had a K/BB of 3.07.

This shows he has some skill, but not having done it in Triple-A I can't see how he could find it in the majors. So looking past the great start in his first 3 games was there anything to show he had found his strength from Double-A? Nope. Nieve only had a 5.67 K/9 in those 20.2 IP before his Monday start. At the same time he had a 3.93 BB/9 making him a sure thing to blow up soon.

Those numbers showed a K/BB of 1.44 before Monday and he now only has a K/BB of 1.40. His FIP of 4.34 seems reasonable and possibly someone you might want to own in a league as your last starter, but his xFIP-5.28 and DERA-4.55 make me think there will be rough times ahead for him.

At this point I would rather risk my luck with the groundballing Joel Pineiro than Nieve.