Update: The drug used was hCG which is a women's fertility drug used to boost testosterone. It is used by steroid users during off cycles to return normal testosterone production.
According to the LATimes.com he has been suspended 50 games and won't return until July 3rd.
If you own him, there is nothing you can do but bench him. He won't be a DL option, so you can't hide him there. If your league has no bench, then I really feel for you. If your league has no bench and the owner is forced to drop him, then make sure as June is ending to pick him up for his return.
I do find it funny that he spent so long fighting for this contract but will lose 7.7 million dollars because he is not paid while suspended.
Thursday, May 7
4 Game Sweep: JJ Hardy
We try to choose a player every so often, and instead of a solo review we give the 4 varying opinions of the writers here at RotoSavants. If there is someone you would like to have reviewed, please let us know.
JJ Hardy
Troy Patterson
Hardy was a big surprise in 2007 when he reached 26 homers. Many assumed this was a fluke, but he was able to follow that with 24 more in 2008. For a shortstop the power is a huge boost, and his average is neither a help or a hindrance. This season he has shown similar power, but he started with a very poor .160 average. Normally I am a strong proponent of waiting and looking at BABIP, but Hardy is truly having struggles at the plate. He is not a .160 hitter, but his K% is up nearly 10% this season. He has gone through bad stretches before, but this start is a bit concerning.
His BABIP is only .169, so he is due for some better luck, but unless he gets his K% under 20% as it has always been, he will struggle with his average. This won't be bad enough that you should cut or even trade him, but it'll be lower than many predicted. He has little speed, and his value will be all in his power at a week position. Expect 20-25 homers, but watch the average.
Kevin Jebens
This week I cut JJ Hardy from one of my leagues. Other fantasy managers have already done so, while some are shocked that owners can let go a proven 20+ HR shortstop. Before anyone gets into a debate about my decision, let me make one thing clear: it was a shallow, 10-team league. In other words, there's plenty of talent available in the FA pool, and many of the struggling players who are worth holding onto in other leagues are sitting out there for the taking. (Jhonny Peralta is another SS off to a bad start and wasting away on the wires.) What does this mean for the rest of you? Take stock of your league's setup. If you really don't need him, and you can stand it if someone else picks him up later to ride the positive end of his season, then there's no harm in letting him go. Besides, who's to say when he'll heat up, or if the Brewers stick with him full time.
Okay, so I can't just hide behind the "It depends" answer. Here's what worries me about him: As Troy said, his K% is high. What's more, he doesn't have a great eye; his BB% is below league average, and Ron Shandler rates his batting eye as only average. If he gets frustrated and impatient because of his poor start, this could get a lot uglier before it even starts to get better. Also, the reason he has such a low BABIP is because his LD% (10.4%) is way below the MLB average (20%) and his own career average (17.3%). Line drives are more likely to fall for hits, increasing BABIP. What's scary is that his LD% has fallen every year in the majors, from 21% in 2005 to 15.5% in 2008. In other words, he's hitting more grounders and fly balls. He doesn't have the speed to outrun grounders, so if he doesn't hit it out of the park, he's in trouble. This explains the fact that his career BABIP (.279) is also below the league average (.300). I worry that he'll turn into a bad version of Adam Dunn: low BA, lots of HR, but also a bad OBP. For me to take a chance on his later this year, I need to see his K% go down and his LD% rise.
Lee Perrault
Kevin and Troy pretty much covered all the analysis of Hardy to date, and Kevin's quick description of him are my exact thoughts:
- Low Batting Average
- Poor OBP
- High Power (at his position)
So what do you do with Hardy? That's the bigger question. In deeper leagues use your bench space in order to stash him away for his next 100 PAs, and see if his plate discipline returns at all. If he's still struggling to get on base, and striking out well above his normal rate, it's time to cut bait.
I do recommend monitoring him closely this month. Personally, when I look at how his walks trend down and his Ks trend up over a full year, I get even more skeptical after a brutal first half.
Give him another 100 PAs, and then reassess.
Corey Dawkins
Everyone else covered the stats that are happening quite well. When Troy covered the BABIP, I thought of a quote from a movie about how 1 hit a week, one dribbler, one Texas leaguer is the difference from a .250 hitter and .300 hitter. (I know I butchered the quote). Looking at Hardy's historical BABIP, it ranges from .260 to .305, so I averaged it out to be roughly .270.
If we use that instead of the .209 he's hitting right now, he gains an extra 3 hits (or roughly 1-2 less than the quote said). That would put his BA at .241 instead of the wonderful .209 hitting now.
Here's why I think that Hardy will bounce back quickly and be tremendous value to you. I wouldn't worry about the K% at all because the K/BB ratio is right at his historical norm of 1.82. He has looked at a lot more strikes this year (41% of his strikes), which he hasn't done at that level since 2006. For comparison last year, he looked at 35% of his strikes. Swinging strikes are 13% this year, 12% last year and 8% in 2007. Finally the % of pitches swung at is 36% this year, 41% last year and 39% in 2007.
To me, this means Hardy is trying to become that player that everyone wanted him to be. He's trying to be more selective at the plate, and so far it hasn't worked out, but that's mostly because of the BABIP. Once his LD% returns to normal, his BABIP will recover, as will his regular BA and his production. If available, I would grab him in most leagues.
JJ Hardy
Troy Patterson
Hardy was a big surprise in 2007 when he reached 26 homers. Many assumed this was a fluke, but he was able to follow that with 24 more in 2008. For a shortstop the power is a huge boost, and his average is neither a help or a hindrance. This season he has shown similar power, but he started with a very poor .160 average. Normally I am a strong proponent of waiting and looking at BABIP, but Hardy is truly having struggles at the plate. He is not a .160 hitter, but his K% is up nearly 10% this season. He has gone through bad stretches before, but this start is a bit concerning.
His BABIP is only .169, so he is due for some better luck, but unless he gets his K% under 20% as it has always been, he will struggle with his average. This won't be bad enough that you should cut or even trade him, but it'll be lower than many predicted. He has little speed, and his value will be all in his power at a week position. Expect 20-25 homers, but watch the average.
Kevin Jebens
This week I cut JJ Hardy from one of my leagues. Other fantasy managers have already done so, while some are shocked that owners can let go a proven 20+ HR shortstop. Before anyone gets into a debate about my decision, let me make one thing clear: it was a shallow, 10-team league. In other words, there's plenty of talent available in the FA pool, and many of the struggling players who are worth holding onto in other leagues are sitting out there for the taking. (Jhonny Peralta is another SS off to a bad start and wasting away on the wires.) What does this mean for the rest of you? Take stock of your league's setup. If you really don't need him, and you can stand it if someone else picks him up later to ride the positive end of his season, then there's no harm in letting him go. Besides, who's to say when he'll heat up, or if the Brewers stick with him full time.
Okay, so I can't just hide behind the "It depends" answer. Here's what worries me about him: As Troy said, his K% is high. What's more, he doesn't have a great eye; his BB% is below league average, and Ron Shandler rates his batting eye as only average. If he gets frustrated and impatient because of his poor start, this could get a lot uglier before it even starts to get better. Also, the reason he has such a low BABIP is because his LD% (10.4%) is way below the MLB average (20%) and his own career average (17.3%). Line drives are more likely to fall for hits, increasing BABIP. What's scary is that his LD% has fallen every year in the majors, from 21% in 2005 to 15.5% in 2008. In other words, he's hitting more grounders and fly balls. He doesn't have the speed to outrun grounders, so if he doesn't hit it out of the park, he's in trouble. This explains the fact that his career BABIP (.279) is also below the league average (.300). I worry that he'll turn into a bad version of Adam Dunn: low BA, lots of HR, but also a bad OBP. For me to take a chance on his later this year, I need to see his K% go down and his LD% rise.
Lee Perrault
Kevin and Troy pretty much covered all the analysis of Hardy to date, and Kevin's quick description of him are my exact thoughts:
- Low Batting Average
- Poor OBP
- High Power (at his position)
So what do you do with Hardy? That's the bigger question. In deeper leagues use your bench space in order to stash him away for his next 100 PAs, and see if his plate discipline returns at all. If he's still struggling to get on base, and striking out well above his normal rate, it's time to cut bait.
I do recommend monitoring him closely this month. Personally, when I look at how his walks trend down and his Ks trend up over a full year, I get even more skeptical after a brutal first half.
Give him another 100 PAs, and then reassess.
Corey Dawkins
Everyone else covered the stats that are happening quite well. When Troy covered the BABIP, I thought of a quote from a movie about how 1 hit a week, one dribbler, one Texas leaguer is the difference from a .250 hitter and .300 hitter. (I know I butchered the quote). Looking at Hardy's historical BABIP, it ranges from .260 to .305, so I averaged it out to be roughly .270.
If we use that instead of the .209 he's hitting right now, he gains an extra 3 hits (or roughly 1-2 less than the quote said). That would put his BA at .241 instead of the wonderful .209 hitting now.
Here's why I think that Hardy will bounce back quickly and be tremendous value to you. I wouldn't worry about the K% at all because the K/BB ratio is right at his historical norm of 1.82. He has looked at a lot more strikes this year (41% of his strikes), which he hasn't done at that level since 2006. For comparison last year, he looked at 35% of his strikes. Swinging strikes are 13% this year, 12% last year and 8% in 2007. Finally the % of pitches swung at is 36% this year, 41% last year and 39% in 2007.
To me, this means Hardy is trying to become that player that everyone wanted him to be. He's trying to be more selective at the plate, and so far it hasn't worked out, but that's mostly because of the BABIP. Once his LD% returns to normal, his BABIP will recover, as will his regular BA and his production. If available, I would grab him in most leagues.
Thursday Articles to Check Out
Here is my Player Profile on FantasyPros911.com. This week I take a look at the beast that is Albert Pujols.
Also head over to BeyondtheBoxScore.com for an interesting look at what Greinke is doing diferently/better. He has added a Sinker, but also dropped his changeup by several mph. It's still his worst pitch, but better.
Also head over to BeyondtheBoxScore.com for an interesting look at what Greinke is doing diferently/better. He has added a Sinker, but also dropped his changeup by several mph. It's still his worst pitch, but better.
Wednesday, May 6
Someone get Bobby Cox a calculator or an abacus please!
News: From the The Sports Xchange: Omar Infante got the start at second base in place of Kelly Johnson again Tuesday, and he also hit in the leadoff position. Manager Bobby Cox has not officially called second base a platoon, but that's what it is right now
Are you kidding me? He's going to sit Kelly Johnson for Infante? Omar "Career .304 wOBA" Infante?
Kelly Johnson has a .222 BABIP with a 17.2 LD%. There's your "slump" right there, Bobby. And Kelly is still holding an OBP 100 points above his batting average.
Sometimes things like this really frustrate me. It's not rocket science.
Are you kidding me? He's going to sit Kelly Johnson for Infante? Omar "Career .304 wOBA" Infante?
Kelly Johnson has a .222 BABIP with a 17.2 LD%. There's your "slump" right there, Bobby. And Kelly is still holding an OBP 100 points above his batting average.
Sometimes things like this really frustrate me. It's not rocket science.
Ace SP Making It Count in Points Leagues
As anyone playing points leagues on CBSSports knows, CBS implemented a new scoring system. And there has been negative feedback. A lot of negative feedback. A very large and upset crowd full of negative feedback.
It doesn’t matter whether I agree with most of the criticism (I do). What matters is that this year fantasy managers need to adapt in order to have a chance to win. Before the year started, I wrote two articles discussing the importance of quality pitchers. The first one was a direct comparison of two-start steaming to having solid aces. The second one focused on the inherent value of quality starts in points leagues. I’ve shown it’s better to have strong starters who are consistently good than it is to simply rush out a higher number of starts. What’s more, the stats and point totals I analyzed did use the new CBS scoring method.
What’s making this year particularly tough? Lots of the fantasy aces are struggling early, creating a startling amount of negative scores. This kind of April might make some owners punt pitchers off their teams, opting instead for any and all two-start options. So what do you do about it?
Grab Those Struggling Aces!
If teams in your points league are ready to give up on strong SP who are struggling early, you need to do everything you can to trade for these pitchers. (Sorry, Chien-Ming Wang, this doesn't include you.) Sure, there’s some risk in guys like Cole Hamels, who is dealing with an injury and hasn’t been sharp. But who would you rather rely on over the course of the season: Hamels (who could have his worst starts behind him), or two-start leftovers like Chan Ho Park and Sidney Ponson and Daniel Cabrera?
Don’t worry too much about giving up a FA pickup who’s currently hot. Someone’s going to be the next Tim Lincecum this year, but what are the odds that guys like Kyle Lohse Scott Richmond are going to keep it up all year? If you can turn them into a recently struggling Peavy or Beckett, the odds are in your favor because these aces have already proven they can be valuable for a whole season. I’d rather take a chance on Peavy bouncing back than cross my fingers in the hopes that Lohse can keep up those shutout appearances.
April isn’t the time to panic, but you can capitalize on other managers’ mistakes in early May. Smart trades this month can set you up to have a strong rest of the year. By taking a “risk” and grabbing struggling aces, you could end up with an elite pitcher for the rest of the year—and the bad games early on didn’t count for your team!
It doesn’t matter whether I agree with most of the criticism (I do). What matters is that this year fantasy managers need to adapt in order to have a chance to win. Before the year started, I wrote two articles discussing the importance of quality pitchers. The first one was a direct comparison of two-start steaming to having solid aces. The second one focused on the inherent value of quality starts in points leagues. I’ve shown it’s better to have strong starters who are consistently good than it is to simply rush out a higher number of starts. What’s more, the stats and point totals I analyzed did use the new CBS scoring method.
What’s making this year particularly tough? Lots of the fantasy aces are struggling early, creating a startling amount of negative scores. This kind of April might make some owners punt pitchers off their teams, opting instead for any and all two-start options. So what do you do about it?
Grab Those Struggling Aces!
If teams in your points league are ready to give up on strong SP who are struggling early, you need to do everything you can to trade for these pitchers. (Sorry, Chien-Ming Wang, this doesn't include you.) Sure, there’s some risk in guys like Cole Hamels, who is dealing with an injury and hasn’t been sharp. But who would you rather rely on over the course of the season: Hamels (who could have his worst starts behind him), or two-start leftovers like Chan Ho Park and Sidney Ponson and Daniel Cabrera?
Don’t worry too much about giving up a FA pickup who’s currently hot. Someone’s going to be the next Tim Lincecum this year, but what are the odds that guys like Kyle Lohse Scott Richmond are going to keep it up all year? If you can turn them into a recently struggling Peavy or Beckett, the odds are in your favor because these aces have already proven they can be valuable for a whole season. I’d rather take a chance on Peavy bouncing back than cross my fingers in the hopes that Lohse can keep up those shutout appearances.
April isn’t the time to panic, but you can capitalize on other managers’ mistakes in early May. Smart trades this month can set you up to have a strong rest of the year. By taking a “risk” and grabbing struggling aces, you could end up with an elite pitcher for the rest of the year—and the bad games early on didn’t count for your team!
Tuesday, May 5
Draft Bug Blogger Day
Today is the first blogger draft at DraftBug.com and I will be going up against a large group of fellow bloggers. Here is the list of bloggers so check them out:
Alex Zelvin, ‘waiver wire’, The Waiver Wire, http://waiverwire.blogspot.com
Kyle Huberman, ‘icehube’, Draftbug Millionaire, http://draftbugmillionaire.blogspot.com
Dave Hall, ‘Roto Guru’, Roto Guru, http://www.rotoguru2.com
Sean, ‘scojo’, 27 Pitches, http://www.27pitches.com
Nick Cichielo, ‘Junkballers’, junkballers, http://www.junkballers.com
Mark Perry, ‘PokerBankrollBlog’, Poker Bankroll Blog, http://www.pokerbankrollblog.com
Josh Culp, ‘Future of Fantasy’, Future of Fantasy, http://www.futureoffantasy.com
Dan Williams, ‘TheInsidePitch’, The Inside Pitch, http://www.theinsidepitch.com
Justin Hulsey, ‘JayHulsey’, Fandemonium Sports, http://fandemoniumsports.blogspot.com
Paul Bourdett, ‘The Pick-up Artist’, Rotoexperts, http://www.rotoexperts.com
Mike, ‘bonds’, Winning at Fantasy Sports Live, http://winatfantasysportslive.com
Steve Schroeder, ‘stv1313’, Steve’s Gambling Sketchbook, http://stevesketchbook.blogspot.com
It is a salary sign player type league and I have already filled my team. The league will only count Wednesday stats and my team is:
C-Chris Ianetta
1B-Lance Berkman
2B-Rickie Weeks
3B-Chipper Jones
SS-Ryan Theriot
OF-Adam Jones
OF-Hunter Pence
OF-Elijah Dukes
SP-Derek Lowe
RP-Scott Downs
I don't really think my strategies work in this setting as my analysis looks at long term and averages. A daily league is far to much luck and more of a fun factor. They have many styles of play including free drafts so check it out and I'll let you know how my team does.
Alex Zelvin, ‘waiver wire’, The Waiver Wire, http://waiverwire.blogspot.com
Kyle Huberman, ‘icehube’, Draftbug Millionaire, http://draftbugmillionaire.blogspot.com
Dave Hall, ‘Roto Guru’, Roto Guru, http://www.rotoguru2.com
Sean, ‘scojo’, 27 Pitches, http://www.27pitches.com
Nick Cichielo, ‘Junkballers’, junkballers, http://www.junkballers.com
Mark Perry, ‘PokerBankrollBlog’, Poker Bankroll Blog, http://www.pokerbankrollblog.com
Josh Culp, ‘Future of Fantasy’, Future of Fantasy, http://www.futureoffantasy.com
Dan Williams, ‘TheInsidePitch’, The Inside Pitch, http://www.theinsidepitch.com
Justin Hulsey, ‘JayHulsey’, Fandemonium Sports, http://fandemoniumsports.blogspot.com
Paul Bourdett, ‘The Pick-up Artist’, Rotoexperts, http://www.rotoexperts.com
Mike, ‘bonds’, Winning at Fantasy Sports Live, http://winatfantasysportslive.com
Steve Schroeder, ‘stv1313’, Steve’s Gambling Sketchbook, http://stevesketchbook.blogspot.com
It is a salary sign player type league and I have already filled my team. The league will only count Wednesday stats and my team is:
C-Chris Ianetta
1B-Lance Berkman
2B-Rickie Weeks
3B-Chipper Jones
SS-Ryan Theriot
OF-Adam Jones
OF-Hunter Pence
OF-Elijah Dukes
SP-Derek Lowe
RP-Scott Downs
I don't really think my strategies work in this setting as my analysis looks at long term and averages. A daily league is far to much luck and more of a fun factor. They have many styles of play including free drafts so check it out and I'll let you know how my team does.
Matt Capps and Pitch Selection
When it comes to closers teams don't put in to much time trying to fix a problem. They will usually move them to middle relief and let them try to figure it out there. The first thing I notice about Matt Capps this year is an uptick in his use of the changeup. Last year was the most he had ever used it at 6.6%, but this year he is up to 13.6%. Looking at BrooksBaseball Pitch F/x for last night he never once got a strike with his changeup, so why the increase of use?
Looking at last year when Capps was at 6.6% changeups he was getting the least amount of strikes called or swinging out of his three pitches with the changeup. He did induce a large number of foul balls though with it. The problem is he is a control pitcher and his slider and changeup both result in a ball over 40% of the time. His fastball on the other hand only results in a ball 30% of the time.
I don't think there are other problems as all his speeds look good and his numbers don't show any injury. The problem is he went from a career 1.48 BB/9 rate to a 4.32 in the extremely small sample size of 8.1 IP.
Closers are often put under the biggest spotlight, but dealing with such small sample sizes can lead to extreme results for good or bad. Look for a decrease in the changeup rate over the next few outings to see better results from Capps.
Looking at last year when Capps was at 6.6% changeups he was getting the least amount of strikes called or swinging out of his three pitches with the changeup. He did induce a large number of foul balls though with it. The problem is he is a control pitcher and his slider and changeup both result in a ball over 40% of the time. His fastball on the other hand only results in a ball 30% of the time.
I don't think there are other problems as all his speeds look good and his numbers don't show any injury. The problem is he went from a career 1.48 BB/9 rate to a 4.32 in the extremely small sample size of 8.1 IP.
Closers are often put under the biggest spotlight, but dealing with such small sample sizes can lead to extreme results for good or bad. Look for a decrease in the changeup rate over the next few outings to see better results from Capps.
Statistical Oddities: Corey Hart
So far this year Corey Hart has looked like his regular self, although his steals are a bit behind normal and his OBP is up, which has raised his projected run totals. As soon as you look at his rates, though, you see there is something completely different about him this year. His BB% and K% are very far off from his normal numbers and look more like a power-hitting, three-outcome type than a power/speed player. He is currently walking at an elevated 12.6% when his career rate has been 6.2%. His K% is way up to 29.9% from a career rate of 20%.
Looking at his career graphs, you can see he has spikes in his walk and strikeout rate early in the year each season, but this spike has been sustained longer this season than any other. Here is his BB% graph and his K% Graph (Look at daily graphs at the bottom). These rates could easily collapse to career rates in the next two weeks, but he does appear to be changing his approach at the plate. He has only swung at 45% of pitches this year, down from a 51% career rate, and that includes pitches in the zone as well as out of the zone.
The question is does a 6% spike in walk rate make up for a 10% spike in his K rate? If these rates hold and his BABIP stabilizes (currently elevated to .369, career .315), he will be a drag on average and his OBP will fall as well. As much as I like an increase in walk rates from players, it is not worth the extra strikeouts unless he is hitting 40+ homers like an Adam Dunn or Ryan Howard. If you own Hart, look for a drop in strikeouts in the next two weeks, or you may want to move him.
Looking at his career graphs, you can see he has spikes in his walk and strikeout rate early in the year each season, but this spike has been sustained longer this season than any other. Here is his BB% graph and his K% Graph (Look at daily graphs at the bottom). These rates could easily collapse to career rates in the next two weeks, but he does appear to be changing his approach at the plate. He has only swung at 45% of pitches this year, down from a 51% career rate, and that includes pitches in the zone as well as out of the zone.
The question is does a 6% spike in walk rate make up for a 10% spike in his K rate? If these rates hold and his BABIP stabilizes (currently elevated to .369, career .315), he will be a drag on average and his OBP will fall as well. As much as I like an increase in walk rates from players, it is not worth the extra strikeouts unless he is hitting 40+ homers like an Adam Dunn or Ryan Howard. If you own Hart, look for a drop in strikeouts in the next two weeks, or you may want to move him.
Monday, May 4
Struggles or Decline: David Ortiz
Wrist injuries are always a concern and one of the reasons I missed out on Carlos Quentin in my leagues this year. Power can quickly disappear and an easy case is the rise and fall of Derrek Lee. Our sample size is way to small for Ortiz right now as we say that it takes 300 PA for HR/FB to stabilize, but we can look at some of his other factors to see what is going on.
My first goal would be to look at his bat speed, which would be a clear indicator of decreased power. In this Buster Olney article he says scouts were surprised at the decreased speed, but no specifics on actual speeds. We'll have to try and find other signs that his skills have declined.
Disclaimer: Ortiz only has 114 PA so none of his rates are significant yet.
First up is his contact rate and walk rate, which are both worse from career levels. He is striking out 20% of the time and only walking 11% of the time. For his career he has a 21% K rate and a 13% walk rate. These are only slightly off so a return to career levels would only take a game or two. I don't think this is anything to get to worked up over.
His discipline is a bit more concerning. He is swinging at 50% of pitches up from a 44% career rate and most of that is pitches out of the zone. He is swinging at nearly 30% of pitches out of the zone when he is usually doing that less than 20% of the time. This has not affected his contact rate which is at career levels, but means he is making a lot of extra contact on pitches out of the zone and resulting in poor outcomes. Perhaps this is his attempt to replace Manny Ramirez by hacking more or just the result of small sample size, but it is concerning.
Another stat which is not yet normalized is his batted ball data. His LD% is right at career levels, but his FB% is up over 10% from normal levels. Add this with a 10% jump in infield fly balls and you have a possible problem in his swing. This could be a slight uppercut added to his swing in compensation for a slowed bat to hit for more power.
Overall I am very concerned about Ortiz this season. As we know large 1B/DH types are prone to quick declines as they reach their mid 30's. His stats could easily correct in a few weeks if he is fine, but as he nears 200 PA we will see if there is any chance of him recovering. Ortiz contract ends in 2010 with the Red Sox and the team has a 2011 option for $12.5 million with no buyout.
For fantasy owners who drafted Ortiz as a power option for UTIL they will have to make adjustments. I wouldn't do anything drastic like drop him yet, but a move to the bench and a close eye on his numbers is recommended. If he still has a HR/FB under 10% by June it would be a good idea to move on from Big Papi.
My first goal would be to look at his bat speed, which would be a clear indicator of decreased power. In this Buster Olney article he says scouts were surprised at the decreased speed, but no specifics on actual speeds. We'll have to try and find other signs that his skills have declined.
Disclaimer: Ortiz only has 114 PA so none of his rates are significant yet.
First up is his contact rate and walk rate, which are both worse from career levels. He is striking out 20% of the time and only walking 11% of the time. For his career he has a 21% K rate and a 13% walk rate. These are only slightly off so a return to career levels would only take a game or two. I don't think this is anything to get to worked up over.
His discipline is a bit more concerning. He is swinging at 50% of pitches up from a 44% career rate and most of that is pitches out of the zone. He is swinging at nearly 30% of pitches out of the zone when he is usually doing that less than 20% of the time. This has not affected his contact rate which is at career levels, but means he is making a lot of extra contact on pitches out of the zone and resulting in poor outcomes. Perhaps this is his attempt to replace Manny Ramirez by hacking more or just the result of small sample size, but it is concerning.
Another stat which is not yet normalized is his batted ball data. His LD% is right at career levels, but his FB% is up over 10% from normal levels. Add this with a 10% jump in infield fly balls and you have a possible problem in his swing. This could be a slight uppercut added to his swing in compensation for a slowed bat to hit for more power.
Overall I am very concerned about Ortiz this season. As we know large 1B/DH types are prone to quick declines as they reach their mid 30's. His stats could easily correct in a few weeks if he is fine, but as he nears 200 PA we will see if there is any chance of him recovering. Ortiz contract ends in 2010 with the Red Sox and the team has a 2011 option for $12.5 million with no buyout.
For fantasy owners who drafted Ortiz as a power option for UTIL they will have to make adjustments. I wouldn't do anything drastic like drop him yet, but a move to the bench and a close eye on his numbers is recommended. If he still has a HR/FB under 10% by June it would be a good idea to move on from Big Papi.
The Ends of the Bell Curve: Week 4
At the conclusion of each week, we'll point out some weird statistical anomalies for you to consider. Normally, things like this will help you uncover some buy low/sell high candidates, or give you some insight into how the sample sizes of a one- or two-game snapshot can affect a player's production.
Today's Topic: Some Guys Have All the Luck
A month into the season, I decided to look try and find some players with immense BABIP discrepancies(both good and bad). Here are some notable players with interesting BABIPs. I'll list their expected BABIPs (eBABIP = LD% + .120) as well for comparison.
Lance Berkman
BABIP: .153, eBABIP: .256, LD%: 13.6%
What's interesting about Berkman is that his line drive rate is considerably lower than average--a paltry 13.6%. Couple that with underperforming his eBABIP by over 100 points, and we have Berkman's expected lack of early season production.
Berkman has a career line drive rate of about 20%, so we should expect that to rebound, driving his average upwards when his BABIP also becomes more in line with his expected values. For his career, Berkman has barely out-paced his expected BABIP, so I don't expect him to stay under the LD+.120 range for long, but I also doubt he'll blow up to the point where he'll overshoot the mark by a lot as well.
Mark Teixeria
BABIP: .180, eBABIP: .220, 10.8%
While Tex isn't a candidate for a large BABIP difference like Berkman, what I want to focus on for Mark is his line drive rate of 10.8%.
We're about 2/3 of the way from LD% being meaningful so there isn't any concern yet for Tex having an abnormally low LD%.
Common knowledge says Tex is a "slow starter". Do you agree? Here's a breakdown of his GB/LD/FB by year. While 2004 looks like a consistent and rather quiet distribution all of his other years show a slow start, then a spike in production. Even 2006, where it looks like he probably had a good 2 weeks or so, shows his production plummeting early, and then jumping back up again (from about 15% to 30+%, and then immediately back down to 20%). 2007 is another example of a great first couple games, and then a huge valley before he righted the ship.
Carlos Quentin
BABIP: .194, eBABIP: .317, 19.7%
Quentin is a pretty open and shut case. He's underpeforming his BABIP by over 100 points while still maintaining a respectable LD%. I'm starting to wonder if Quentin's production might even have a shot of eclipsing last year. I was definitely more cautious about him this year, even recommending to Troy to keep McLouth over him for our home league this year. I'll have to see if my initial convictions were accurate over the next couple weeks. My only question mark would be his power numbers which are currently sitting at a 26.7% HR/FB ratio. We still need another 200 PAs for that to stabilize, and I'd like to investigate another spike in power from him.
There are quite a few other players with interesting BABIPs/eBABIPs/LD% collections right now:
Jimmy Rollins: .221/.259/13.9%
Jimmy rebounded a bit since my Week 1 article mentioned him.
Dan Uggla: .237/.292/17.3%
Jay Bruce: .250/.233/11.3%
Chris B. Young: .237/.317/19.7%
Look at Chris Young's numbers, and then Quentin's again. Amazing the difference a 20% jump in HR/FB% between the two can do for your production, isn't it? (Young is sitting at 5.3%)
I find BABIP a very fun stat. It helps quantify some of the things we notice during the game but have trouble explaining. I also find that I come back to it very regularly during the season in order to decipher the current production (or lack thereof) of players or identify "hot and cold streaks" (that's really all they are, anyway-- BABIP fluctuations).
Have any opinions about these or other players? Let us know!
Today's Topic: Some Guys Have All the Luck
A month into the season, I decided to look try and find some players with immense BABIP discrepancies(both good and bad). Here are some notable players with interesting BABIPs. I'll list their expected BABIPs (eBABIP = LD% + .120) as well for comparison.
Lance Berkman
BABIP: .153, eBABIP: .256, LD%: 13.6%
What's interesting about Berkman is that his line drive rate is considerably lower than average--a paltry 13.6%. Couple that with underperforming his eBABIP by over 100 points, and we have Berkman's expected lack of early season production.
Berkman has a career line drive rate of about 20%, so we should expect that to rebound, driving his average upwards when his BABIP also becomes more in line with his expected values. For his career, Berkman has barely out-paced his expected BABIP, so I don't expect him to stay under the LD+.120 range for long, but I also doubt he'll blow up to the point where he'll overshoot the mark by a lot as well.
Mark Teixeria
BABIP: .180, eBABIP: .220, 10.8%
While Tex isn't a candidate for a large BABIP difference like Berkman, what I want to focus on for Mark is his line drive rate of 10.8%.
We're about 2/3 of the way from LD% being meaningful so there isn't any concern yet for Tex having an abnormally low LD%.
Common knowledge says Tex is a "slow starter". Do you agree? Here's a breakdown of his GB/LD/FB by year. While 2004 looks like a consistent and rather quiet distribution all of his other years show a slow start, then a spike in production. Even 2006, where it looks like he probably had a good 2 weeks or so, shows his production plummeting early, and then jumping back up again (from about 15% to 30+%, and then immediately back down to 20%). 2007 is another example of a great first couple games, and then a huge valley before he righted the ship.
Carlos Quentin
BABIP: .194, eBABIP: .317, 19.7%
Quentin is a pretty open and shut case. He's underpeforming his BABIP by over 100 points while still maintaining a respectable LD%. I'm starting to wonder if Quentin's production might even have a shot of eclipsing last year. I was definitely more cautious about him this year, even recommending to Troy to keep McLouth over him for our home league this year. I'll have to see if my initial convictions were accurate over the next couple weeks. My only question mark would be his power numbers which are currently sitting at a 26.7% HR/FB ratio. We still need another 200 PAs for that to stabilize, and I'd like to investigate another spike in power from him.
There are quite a few other players with interesting BABIPs/eBABIPs/LD% collections right now:
Jimmy Rollins: .221/.259/13.9%
Jimmy rebounded a bit since my Week 1 article mentioned him.
Dan Uggla: .237/.292/17.3%
Jay Bruce: .250/.233/11.3%
Chris B. Young: .237/.317/19.7%
Look at Chris Young's numbers, and then Quentin's again. Amazing the difference a 20% jump in HR/FB% between the two can do for your production, isn't it? (Young is sitting at 5.3%)
I find BABIP a very fun stat. It helps quantify some of the things we notice during the game but have trouble explaining. I also find that I come back to it very regularly during the season in order to decipher the current production (or lack thereof) of players or identify "hot and cold streaks" (that's really all they are, anyway-- BABIP fluctuations).
Have any opinions about these or other players? Let us know!
Sunday, May 3
FA Leftovers: Bargain Speed
It’s a concept that we’ve pushed before: don’t waste draft picks on speed-only guys. The reason? Just like saves, SB can be picked up for cheap during the year. I’ll avoid guys like Michael Bourn and Wily Taveras for two reasons: 1) they’re a little more well-known, and 2) they really don’t help you in any other category. There are some speedsters who are currently doing well enough to help you across the board, and if you need the SB, you could pick one up to serve as a utility player on off days. Statistics are as of May 3.
Dexter Fowler (.287/12/2/7/9) is currently the Rockies leadoff hitter, and he has a permanent green light, with the instructions “Run until they stop you.” Add in the bit of pop he has, and he’ll be getting more and more playing time at this rate. Owned: ESPN 46%, Yahoo 41%.
Denard Span (.300/11/1/13/6) is knocking in more runs than he’s scored, which might seem odd for someone chosen for speed. However, his good average is no fluke, and the Twins have a great lineup up and down. There’s no reason he shouldn’t end up with 30+ SB at the end of the year. He’s more available in ESPN, which needs 5 OF, than in Yahoo, so this is a steal for ESPN players. Owned: ESPN 29%, Yahoo 59%.
Nyjer Morgan(.309/18/0/11/6) won’t give you any power, and he doesn’t walk a ton, which might discourage some people from picking him up. After all, speedsters need to get on base to steal bases, and walks create more stolen base opportunities. But if he can maintain his high average, there’s nothing to worry about. Others might worry about his above-average BABIP (.375) and assume it’ll fall drastically, dragging his BA down with it. However, he’ll maintain his BABIP because he hits line drives (which often fall for hits) and because he can outrun the ball when he hits grounders (a common tactic for speedsters). His lowest BABIP at any level has been .333, still above the league average of .300, and at his last minor league stop it was .347, so I predict he can maintain a BABIP above .340 and a BA above .280. The two lowest BA projections for Morgan on FanGraphs don’t account for his high BABIP, which is why they predict his BA to come in below .275. Owned: ESPN 61%, Yahoo 47%.
Dexter Fowler (.287/12/2/7/9) is currently the Rockies leadoff hitter, and he has a permanent green light, with the instructions “Run until they stop you.” Add in the bit of pop he has, and he’ll be getting more and more playing time at this rate. Owned: ESPN 46%, Yahoo 41%.
Denard Span (.300/11/1/13/6) is knocking in more runs than he’s scored, which might seem odd for someone chosen for speed. However, his good average is no fluke, and the Twins have a great lineup up and down. There’s no reason he shouldn’t end up with 30+ SB at the end of the year. He’s more available in ESPN, which needs 5 OF, than in Yahoo, so this is a steal for ESPN players. Owned: ESPN 29%, Yahoo 59%.
Nyjer Morgan(.309/18/0/11/6) won’t give you any power, and he doesn’t walk a ton, which might discourage some people from picking him up. After all, speedsters need to get on base to steal bases, and walks create more stolen base opportunities. But if he can maintain his high average, there’s nothing to worry about. Others might worry about his above-average BABIP (.375) and assume it’ll fall drastically, dragging his BA down with it. However, he’ll maintain his BABIP because he hits line drives (which often fall for hits) and because he can outrun the ball when he hits grounders (a common tactic for speedsters). His lowest BABIP at any level has been .333, still above the league average of .300, and at his last minor league stop it was .347, so I predict he can maintain a BABIP above .340 and a BA above .280. The two lowest BA projections for Morgan on FanGraphs don’t account for his high BABIP, which is why they predict his BA to come in below .275. Owned: ESPN 61%, Yahoo 47%.
The Red Sox Should Make New Plans
This also goes for fantasy owners who took a flier on Brad Penny, but he has been awful this year and it has little to do with bad luck. His K/BB right now stands at 0.55, which is horrifically bad. His K/9 has dropped every year since 2006 and has started 2009 with a 3.06 in 17.2 IP. His sample size is still small, but he has yet to top 2 strikeouts in any game. His groundball numbers are good so he could be passable if he improves some in his control, but fantasy value will be limited without strikeouts.
The first thing I notice in his Pitch F/x data is a limit on pitch type. In 2007 and 2008 Penny used the changeup as much as 16% of the time, but in 2009 that has dropped to 8%. His changeup has also been 1-2 mph faster while his fastball has been slightly slower. Again this lowers the deception of the two pitches as they get closer together.
His ability to get the first strike is also a big hindrance. He is only getting the first strike 51% of the time. This is down from a career level of 60%. If he can't get a pitch by the hitter to start the at bat there is a drop in chance for strikeout.
I could see him getting 2 more starts, but without an improvement in his K/BB he is not going to be long for the Red Sox rotation. They have to many better options and can't spend to much time on a rehab project. If you have him still on your roster I would bench him for his start today and if he can't get more than 4 strikeouts I would move on.
The first thing I notice in his Pitch F/x data is a limit on pitch type. In 2007 and 2008 Penny used the changeup as much as 16% of the time, but in 2009 that has dropped to 8%. His changeup has also been 1-2 mph faster while his fastball has been slightly slower. Again this lowers the deception of the two pitches as they get closer together.
His ability to get the first strike is also a big hindrance. He is only getting the first strike 51% of the time. This is down from a career level of 60%. If he can't get a pitch by the hitter to start the at bat there is a drop in chance for strikeout.
I could see him getting 2 more starts, but without an improvement in his K/BB he is not going to be long for the Red Sox rotation. They have to many better options and can't spend to much time on a rehab project. If you have him still on your roster I would bench him for his start today and if he can't get more than 4 strikeouts I would move on.
Analyzing New Skills: Zack Greinke
Working off of our required numbers that we need to find improved skills I am going to occasionally look at players that reach major markers from the list and have skills that are better than previous levels.
Zack Greinke - K/9 level (150 BF needed)
First up is Zack Greinke and his amazing jump in his K/9 so far this season. He has only 138 BF, but is only one start away from the threshold.
Career K/9 - 7.15
2009 K/9 - 11.00
That is quite a jump and similar to the jump Erik Bedard made in 2007. He had increased each season, but last year was his highest at 8.14 and many projections called for a step back to the mid 7's. That doesn't seem to be the case, but can we find what change Greinke has made to get this growth?
Changeup
The first thing that pops out as me is he dropped 2 mph off of his changeup according to FanGraphs Pitch F/x data. This would make his split between fastball and changeup even better and that much harder to hit. His changeup has also been a strike more than 70% of the time showing very good command of it.
Plate Discipline
Again using FanGraphs data you can see a shift in his pitching with Plate Discipline. Batters are swinging more at pitches out of the zone and less at pitches in the zone. The hitters are making less contact on both zones as well. The interesting part is Greinke is actually putting less pitches in the zone. His career Zone% is 54.5%, but so far this season he is only throwing 44% of pitches in the zone.
Final Thoughts
He is one start away from reaching the threshold of 150 BF, but it would take a really bad game to drop his K/9 right now. I think we are looking at an actual increase in his numbers, but a word of caution might if hitters figure out his new approach. This would take the hitter holding off on what must be a very deceptive changeup.
His numbers are obviously inflated with no homers against yet and a 90% LOB%, but even when those numbers regress he is currently pitching at a level that would supply an ERA under 3.00. He also has gone against some very good hitting lineups making these numbers even more impressive.
Zack Greinke - K/9 level (150 BF needed)
First up is Zack Greinke and his amazing jump in his K/9 so far this season. He has only 138 BF, but is only one start away from the threshold.
Career K/9 - 7.15
2009 K/9 - 11.00
That is quite a jump and similar to the jump Erik Bedard made in 2007. He had increased each season, but last year was his highest at 8.14 and many projections called for a step back to the mid 7's. That doesn't seem to be the case, but can we find what change Greinke has made to get this growth?
Changeup
The first thing that pops out as me is he dropped 2 mph off of his changeup according to FanGraphs Pitch F/x data. This would make his split between fastball and changeup even better and that much harder to hit. His changeup has also been a strike more than 70% of the time showing very good command of it.
Plate Discipline
Again using FanGraphs data you can see a shift in his pitching with Plate Discipline. Batters are swinging more at pitches out of the zone and less at pitches in the zone. The hitters are making less contact on both zones as well. The interesting part is Greinke is actually putting less pitches in the zone. His career Zone% is 54.5%, but so far this season he is only throwing 44% of pitches in the zone.
Final Thoughts
He is one start away from reaching the threshold of 150 BF, but it would take a really bad game to drop his K/9 right now. I think we are looking at an actual increase in his numbers, but a word of caution might if hitters figure out his new approach. This would take the hitter holding off on what must be a very deceptive changeup.
His numbers are obviously inflated with no homers against yet and a 90% LOB%, but even when those numbers regress he is currently pitching at a level that would supply an ERA under 3.00. He also has gone against some very good hitting lineups making these numbers even more impressive.
Saturday, May 2
Adam Dunn doesn't miss Dusty Baker
Many of the forecasts for Adam Dunn had a loss of power and a regression in his skills. A lot of this was on the perceived park factors of moving from Great American Ball Park to Nationals Park. Last year Nationals Park played fairly neutral and Great American Ball Park has always been a homer run park. This factor was expected to cut several homers and a poor lineup would limit his chance for other counting stats.
This so far has not been the result as Dunn has out played all projections through April. I obviously take one month with a grain of salt as we need another 1/2 month or so to start getting a better read on players skills, but right now Dunn is showing a solid growth in his hitting skills. Many times Dusty Baker had spent telling Dunn to swing more and try to get more hits and less walks.
This year he has become extremely selective only swinging at 35% of pitches and only 15% of pitches out of the zone. His contact rate is currently his highest ever and this has also raised his walk rate to all time elite levels. His current BB% is 23% when his career rate is 17% and his K% is 26% while his career level is 32%. Like I said this has not been enough of a sample, but another 2-3 weeks will confirm this.
I tend to buy the change since he is no longer dealing with a manager trying to modify his skills. The only doubt is he never did this before Baker either. If May is ending and he is still holding these rates you might see something you never though you would see out of Adam Dunn. That would be a batting average over .280. He has the slugging abilities to establish a BABIP over .300 and with a better contact rate he could push to .280 for the first time.
One year of data might not be enough and Nationals Park factors might play slightly different this year. Also Dunn had the longest average distance of homers in 2008 and the 2 longest homers of the season. I think he still gets to 40 or very close and doesn't hurt your average as much as usual.
This so far has not been the result as Dunn has out played all projections through April. I obviously take one month with a grain of salt as we need another 1/2 month or so to start getting a better read on players skills, but right now Dunn is showing a solid growth in his hitting skills. Many times Dusty Baker had spent telling Dunn to swing more and try to get more hits and less walks.
This year he has become extremely selective only swinging at 35% of pitches and only 15% of pitches out of the zone. His contact rate is currently his highest ever and this has also raised his walk rate to all time elite levels. His current BB% is 23% when his career rate is 17% and his K% is 26% while his career level is 32%. Like I said this has not been enough of a sample, but another 2-3 weeks will confirm this.
I tend to buy the change since he is no longer dealing with a manager trying to modify his skills. The only doubt is he never did this before Baker either. If May is ending and he is still holding these rates you might see something you never though you would see out of Adam Dunn. That would be a batting average over .280. He has the slugging abilities to establish a BABIP over .300 and with a better contact rate he could push to .280 for the first time.
One year of data might not be enough and Nationals Park factors might play slightly different this year. Also Dunn had the longest average distance of homers in 2008 and the 2 longest homers of the season. I think he still gets to 40 or very close and doesn't hurt your average as much as usual.
Friday, May 1
Pitch F/x: Josh Beckett
I am looking at data from FanGraphs.com new Pitch F/x data and finding some interesting things here for Josh Beckett. So far this year Beckett has been having control problems and has a BB/9 over 5 at this early stage in the season. As we saw it can take 500+ batters faced to see a pitchers true walk rate, but this rate made me concerned for a potential injury for Beckett as we know he has tossed through pain before.
His velocities seem normal and are right around the same level as the past two years except for the changeup. (data only goes to 2007 in Pitch F/x) It says he threw limited changeups in 2008, but in 2007 his changeup was 84.9 mph, but has risen to 87.7 this year. This could limit strikeouts, but I wouldn't think it would increase walks, unless causing him to have less control. Both vertical and horizontal movement also look to be fine and along normal rates.
The other problem I see is pitch selection. He has dropped his four seam fastball to 59% of his pitches and added a two seam fastball. His curveball rate is also up from previous rates. These pitches have less control and could be increasing his walk rate. The good news is his number of two seamers thrown has decreased each game, but his BB/9 has not.
My guess is these several factors are causing a decrease in control. I would like to see his changeup drop 2-3 mph and get rid of the two seamer if it is causing control issues. Looking at his BB/9 graph he often has BB/9 trouble in the first 4-5 starts, so perhaps this is just a normal early season transition for him, but we should keep an eye on this.
His velocities seem normal and are right around the same level as the past two years except for the changeup. (data only goes to 2007 in Pitch F/x) It says he threw limited changeups in 2008, but in 2007 his changeup was 84.9 mph, but has risen to 87.7 this year. This could limit strikeouts, but I wouldn't think it would increase walks, unless causing him to have less control. Both vertical and horizontal movement also look to be fine and along normal rates.
The other problem I see is pitch selection. He has dropped his four seam fastball to 59% of his pitches and added a two seam fastball. His curveball rate is also up from previous rates. These pitches have less control and could be increasing his walk rate. The good news is his number of two seamers thrown has decreased each game, but his BB/9 has not.
My guess is these several factors are causing a decrease in control. I would like to see his changeup drop 2-3 mph and get rid of the two seamer if it is causing control issues. Looking at his BB/9 graph he often has BB/9 trouble in the first 4-5 starts, so perhaps this is just a normal early season transition for him, but we should keep an eye on this.
Friday Rewind - A Week of Sample Size Reminders
So we spent a lot of time trying to remind people that sample sizes must be considered and that it's to early to start dropping players of to a poor start. You should be sticking to your preseason predictions unless there are injuries or playing time changes for now.
RotoSavants Articles Revisit
Keeping Up with RotoSavants
Friends of RotoSavants
RotoSavants Articles Revisit
- The Psychology of Trading (Lee Perrault)
- Luck in H2H/Point Leagues (Kevin Jebens)
- The End of the Bell Curve Series: Part I, Part II, Part III (Lee Perrault)
- Dealing with Early Season Improvements (Troy Patterson)
Keeping Up with RotoSavants
Friends of RotoSavants
- Brian Joura at FanGraphs looks at New Projections for Kevin Youkilis' Average.
- Fantasy Ball Junkie pointed us to a study on Umpire effects.
- Kevin Orris gives insight on using Twitter to help in Fantasy Sports. (including a mention for my twitter)
The Return of Kevin Millwood
As we discussed yesterday there is a certain amount of data needed before you can trust certain numbers. This comes into play with Kevin Millwood as his BB/9 is at the lowest rate in his career although his K/9 is also down from previous years as well. The final outcome though is a 2.75 K/BB, which is a solid rate. He has had K/BB over 2.50 for most of his career and even last year.
The problem since joining the Rangers has been a horrible BABIP and bad LOB% numbers. Most would have assumed it was his HR/FB since he pitches in a hitters park, but that has not been the case. Hi BABIP has averaged .342 the past three years in Texas and has truly been the central part of his struggles.
The Rangers as a team had the worst BABIP against of any team in baseball and it was due mostly to their porous defense. Their infield with Hank Blalock, Ian Kinsler, Micheal Young and Chris Davis was on of the worst in baseball and Josh Hamilton was just as bad in the outfield. This year though they have Nelson Cruz adding a good defender along with Andruw Jones and Marloyn Byrd. The big change has been the rotation on the infield. Davis is a better option at First and the move to third has been a good choice with Young. Kinsler has been solid so far this year, but he is a poor defender at second and is still the week infield link.
This all adds up to a positive value for Rangers pitchers. If Millwood can get his BABIP mush more in line with the league average his ERA should be respectable this year. The walk rate might not stay, but he should continue to be around 2.50 in his K/BB as he has been most of his career. His FIP is misleading as he has a raised HR/FB and as that regresses he should be below 4.00.
He isn't going to add a lot of strikeout value, but with a solid offense behind him and a good ERA he could be a good shot for value in wins this year.
The problem since joining the Rangers has been a horrible BABIP and bad LOB% numbers. Most would have assumed it was his HR/FB since he pitches in a hitters park, but that has not been the case. Hi BABIP has averaged .342 the past three years in Texas and has truly been the central part of his struggles.
The Rangers as a team had the worst BABIP against of any team in baseball and it was due mostly to their porous defense. Their infield with Hank Blalock, Ian Kinsler, Micheal Young and Chris Davis was on of the worst in baseball and Josh Hamilton was just as bad in the outfield. This year though they have Nelson Cruz adding a good defender along with Andruw Jones and Marloyn Byrd. The big change has been the rotation on the infield. Davis is a better option at First and the move to third has been a good choice with Young. Kinsler has been solid so far this year, but he is a poor defender at second and is still the week infield link.
This all adds up to a positive value for Rangers pitchers. If Millwood can get his BABIP mush more in line with the league average his ERA should be respectable this year. The walk rate might not stay, but he should continue to be around 2.50 in his K/BB as he has been most of his career. His FIP is misleading as he has a raised HR/FB and as that regresses he should be below 4.00.
He isn't going to add a lot of strikeout value, but with a solid offense behind him and a good ERA he could be a good shot for value in wins this year.
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