I had a reader ask if there is a way to use sabermetrics for daily leagues when checking your lineup and making changes. I have to say that sabermetrics is the biggest reason to not make daily changes to your lineup. You are counting on your projections and choices made using these theories and don't want to make hasty decisions.
On the other hand it is a major factor in making pitching decisions. We discussed Gavin Floyd recently and his splits against lefties and righties. This should be information to lead you to play him against a lineup loaded with right handers. You can also make good choices by benching fly ball pitchers going in hitter parks (Not elite strikeout guys though)
Otherwise many stats used to make decisions are often misleading and based on small sample sizes. CBS used to show how a hitter matched up with the pitcher and what he had done previously. If a hitter has gone 0-10, but only struck out once or twice then this is just poor luck and will eventually turn around. Unless the hitter has faced him 10 times and struck out 7+ times you shouldn't be using these numbers.
The point of sabermetrics is to make sure you're sample sizes are efficient to predict what will happen in the future. So you should be looking at things like lefty/righty matchups or home/away. My bench is mostly filled with base stealers and huge upside guys. I won't be starting them unless they have good steal matchups or the youth starts to establish themselves.
I also had a comment on something Tim Dierkes said the other day. He called for an occasional use of small sample sizes to find players like Carlos Quentin and Cliff Lee. You are using the small sample size, but it is confirmed by previous experience. Cliff Lee had shown previous control ability and had a great season in 2005 with a good K/BB. Carlos Quentin was a top prospect with very good skills before his shoulder injury. You can use the small sample size, but don't make any large judgments without some history to confirm.
Tuesday, April 7
Brett Myers Pitching Analysis
So after Day 1 Brett Myers looks like the Myers of the first half of 2008. Before July last year he had given up 24 homers in only 17 games started. He followed that up with only 5 homers in 13 games to finish the season. Myers had a lot of bad luck in the first half by pitching in hitters parks for almost all of his starts. His second half included many NL West starts on the road and more weak lineups. You can't expect much different for park factors in 2009, but what else can we find that Myers did differently in the first and second half to get such better results.
Strikeouts and Walks
Regardless of what park he is in Myers should be dominating hitters by striking out at a minimum 8 batters per 9 innings. Lets take a look at Myers K/9 by game.
Myers was all over the place in the early part of the season with games going from dominating to abysmal. The key to August though was those six games in a row with K/9 all around 10. He seemed to drop off a bit as the season ended, but I'm sure fatigue was a factor in his first season returning to starting. Now lets look at how he did keeping batters of the bases.
We can see he just wasn't a good pitcher in the first half and his fluctuating BB/9 was constantly bad going as high as 6 not including the games before and after his demotion to AAA. After August started though his BB/9 was as high as 4, but often below or at 2. He was very efficient in those last few games and this was reflected in his home run rate and overall performance.
Groundball Rate
Myers isn't often thought of as a groundball pitcher, but he does supply a solid rate around 47%. This could be a huge factor in his home rune prevention. Lets take a look at his GB% in 2008.
Again Myers was definately two different pitchers before and after the time in the minors. His GB% was very up and down and that leads to excess flyballs and many more homers. The only effect a pitcher has on limiting homers is by getting the hit balls on the ground. He was able to do this in the second half and turn his year around.
Conclusion
Brett Myers was throwing at a decreased velocity in the early goings last year, but was also adjusting back to starting. All this really played with his numbers and he was very up and down in his skills. He appeared ready to carry over his strong finish, but Sunday night struggled again with the long ball.
The good news is Myers met all of the numbers we should hope for, but had to deal with the factor of pitching in Citizens Bank Park. His K/9 was 9 and his BB/9 was 1.5 giving a K/BB of 6, which should give strong results most games. He also had a GB% of 45% right near career levels. All of this leads me to believe that Myers is still going well and will have success this season. He is going to have his struggles pitching in Philly, but he can be the second half Myers of 2008 for all of 2009.
Strikeouts and Walks
Regardless of what park he is in Myers should be dominating hitters by striking out at a minimum 8 batters per 9 innings. Lets take a look at Myers K/9 by game.
Myers was all over the place in the early part of the season with games going from dominating to abysmal. The key to August though was those six games in a row with K/9 all around 10. He seemed to drop off a bit as the season ended, but I'm sure fatigue was a factor in his first season returning to starting. Now lets look at how he did keeping batters of the bases.
We can see he just wasn't a good pitcher in the first half and his fluctuating BB/9 was constantly bad going as high as 6 not including the games before and after his demotion to AAA. After August started though his BB/9 was as high as 4, but often below or at 2. He was very efficient in those last few games and this was reflected in his home run rate and overall performance.
Groundball Rate
Myers isn't often thought of as a groundball pitcher, but he does supply a solid rate around 47%. This could be a huge factor in his home rune prevention. Lets take a look at his GB% in 2008.
Again Myers was definately two different pitchers before and after the time in the minors. His GB% was very up and down and that leads to excess flyballs and many more homers. The only effect a pitcher has on limiting homers is by getting the hit balls on the ground. He was able to do this in the second half and turn his year around.Conclusion
Brett Myers was throwing at a decreased velocity in the early goings last year, but was also adjusting back to starting. All this really played with his numbers and he was very up and down in his skills. He appeared ready to carry over his strong finish, but Sunday night struggled again with the long ball.
The good news is Myers met all of the numbers we should hope for, but had to deal with the factor of pitching in Citizens Bank Park. His K/9 was 9 and his BB/9 was 1.5 giving a K/BB of 6, which should give strong results most games. He also had a GB% of 45% right near career levels. All of this leads me to believe that Myers is still going well and will have success this season. He is going to have his struggles pitching in Philly, but he can be the second half Myers of 2008 for all of 2009.
Monday, April 6
Week 1 Story Up at the League Site
The very first Baseball Prospectus writing contest story is up at League.RotoSavants.com today. We are trying to get one for each week, but I need plenty more to fill the season. If you get yours in now you could stand a better chance to win the prize. Please send your articles to TroyPatterson@RotoSavants.com. I will also include a free 125x125 adspace to the winner if they have their own blog.
Also today is Kevin's first debate on FP911.com Great Debate that counts. This will be a weekly debate between different views. Luckily Kevin was the home team and got to battle pro-Sabermetrics.
Also today is Kevin's first debate on FP911.com Great Debate that counts. This will be a weekly debate between different views. Luckily Kevin was the home team and got to battle pro-Sabermetrics.
Bad Decisions on Day 1 (OK so it's Day 2)
So we can't get through the second day of the season without stuff like this.
What Aaron Cook is Melvin referring to? The one with a K/9 of 4.02 in 2008, which was a career high? We are talking about a pitcher who relies on an extreme groundball rate to get outs and keep the ball in the park. Maybe he has a better K/9 against righties? Nope his lefty K/9 actually was higher in 2008 although it has always been close.
So what to do with Reynolds and Upton? You have to imagine once they get hot they will eliminate the need to ever play Tony Clark again.
My favorite part to this whole thing is how Cook and Jiminez have very similar groundball rates and K/BB, but Melvin decides to play these guys against they pitcher who is actually a "tougher righty".
News: Against the Rockies and RHPAaron Cook on Monday, the Diamondbacks plan to start Chad Tracy at third base, not Mark Reynolds. Tracy will shift over from first base, allowing Tony Clark to enter the lineup. "I talked early on this spring about getting some left-handed bats in against some of the tougher right-handed pitchers in the league," manager Bob Melvin said, "and this guy profiles out as that." Melvin expects Reynolds and Upton to be back in the lineup Tuesday night against Colorado's Ubaldo Jimenez (12-12, 3.99). He said the lineup changes are an example of the team's versatility.
What Aaron Cook is Melvin referring to? The one with a K/9 of 4.02 in 2008, which was a career high? We are talking about a pitcher who relies on an extreme groundball rate to get outs and keep the ball in the park. Maybe he has a better K/9 against righties? Nope his lefty K/9 actually was higher in 2008 although it has always been close.
So what to do with Reynolds and Upton? You have to imagine once they get hot they will eliminate the need to ever play Tony Clark again.
My favorite part to this whole thing is how Cook and Jiminez have very similar groundball rates and K/BB, but Melvin decides to play these guys against they pitcher who is actually a "tougher righty".
Last Minute Predictions
With the start of the season here, the Savants give some quick hit predictions for players in the upcoming season. We'll be telling you two guys to draft for 2009, and one guy we really like in 2010 (for all of you in keeper leagues).
Corey Dawkins
2009: Elijah Dukes
No one has ever questioned his talent, only his ability to use his talent and stay out of trouble. Call me crazy but I think those days are behind him. 25/25 is well within reach and well within the range of possibility this year with Dunn hitting around him. Dukes increased his OPS last year over 150 points while increasing his OBP significantly. His BABIP was very slightly above normal but his line drive rate increased significantly as well. I think this year he goes 25/25.
2009:Matt Kemp
Kemp will be hitting around Manny and already has 25/25 potential. If he starts to really focus on controlling the zone and hit the pitches that he can handle, I can see Soriano in his prime but with slightly better OBP. The chance of getting him cheap has probably passed, but you can still get him for good value.
2010: Max Scherzer
Scherzer flat out has ace stuff and assuming he can stay healthy, he can give you strikeout rates that approach Liriano pre-Tommy John. The only knock on him was some question about his health as he battled fatigue last year and over the winter. He may be young but he's not as young as people think as he'll turn 25 in July. He's approaching the end of the injury nexus that Will Carroll and others at BaseballProspectus discuss over there. Next year, I think that he'll be released from all innings limitations and he could easily top 200Ks.
Kevin Jebens
2009: Sean Marshall
When he won the fifth starting spot on the Cubs, Sean Marshall became very fantasy relevant. He’s always had decent skills, and looking just at his major league time he’s improved in K/9 and K/BB, with only a slight regression in BB/9 from 2007 to 2008. He’s also done better when in the rotation, as opposed to pitching from the bullpen. The fact that the Cubs are currently a contender means he should have good run support and a chance to with 12+ games over a full season.
2009: Lastings Milledge
He’s not a big sleeper per se, but looking at his ADP, I’d rather have him over some guys taken ahead of him. He just received the nod to be the leadoff hitter for Washington, so his SB numbers will continue to please. He’s also developed some power, so a line of 20/35 could be in his future. Note the increase in SLG and OBP from the first half to the second half. Also note that he matched his SB total from the first half with 80 less AB. His increase of line drive percent will help him maintain a high hit percentage, especially in his spacious home park.
2010: Andrew McCutchen
Here’s one of my favorite keeper options, and he’ll cost less than many others because he’s stuck in Pittsburgh. Those who know about him realize he could be a five-category producer. He’s young, so the power at the big league level isn’t here yet, but his speed is going to tide over owners until he starts hitting 20 HR. The neat thing I found: in the three seasons where he split time between two different levels, he actually improved in AVG, OBP, and SLG at the higher level. He’ll only be 22 during 2009, but come 2010 he could very well be BJ Upton lite.
Troy Patterson
2009: Shin Soo-Choo
He's finally healthy after dealing with different injuries including Tommy John surgery. Last year he showed his skills and he enters 2009 with the full time job in Cleveland. The 14 homers in 317 ABs might have been a bit over his head, but with the time missed we really don't know what he can do in a full season. He also seemed to limit his steals, but has stolen as many as 26 bases in AAA. I am going to say Choo will be a 20/20 player in 2009 with an average greater than .280. He will have more value than Corey Hart this season.
2009: Mark Teahen
This was going to be Dernard Span, but the team has decided to put his development on hold by going to the minors. Teahen on the other hand has been ripping the cover off the ball this spring and although his defense at 2B has been only improving slightly he is forcing the Royals to make a tough choice. If Teahen gets the job at 2B he will supply value of a top 10 second baseman.
2010: Tommy Hanson
Sure Hanson is heading to the minors to start 2009, but he is ready to go. His numbers in the minors are very impressive and he has an elite K/9 ratio. His ratio's are even better than David Price. Hence my prediction that Hanson will be a better pitcher in 2010 and if the Braves realize Tom Glavine is done 2009. Price could win in ERA with the GB%, but Hanson should be fine in Atlanta's pitcher park and collect more strikeouts.
Lee Perrault
2009: Javier Vazquez
Vazquez finally goes back to the NL, where his numbers with the Expos actually matched his K/BB ratios. After many years of hard luck, HR-happy park adjustments, and one really strange outlying year in the Bronx, Vazquez's production will finally match his 3+ career K/BB. High strikeouts, a respectable WHIP, and a mid 3s ERA will reign supreme.
2009: Mark Reynolds
With HR/FB% numbers comparable to Mark Teixeira, Dan Uggla, Prince Fielder and Pat Burrell, Reynolds should easily crack 35 HRs this year. Reynolds just needs to actually put the bat on the ball in the zone, and he's primed for elite production. If he can improve his zone contact levels another 10%, he'll be putting up numbers like Adam Dunn(with a better BA!)--at 3B. Reynolds will end up at 260/355/525, 35HRs and 10SBs
2010: Clay Buchholz
It'll take the Red Sox one more season to finally end the Tim Wakefield love affair in the rotation. Buchholz' mechanics have been reset after the Red Sox foolishly tried to refine them last year. Let's hope they realize that consistency is sometimes just as important as ideal mechanics (see Lincecum, Timothy). Clay should be locked in as the #5 next year, and will be ready for a full year breakout. A 3.7 ERA, 1.3 WHIP, and 8.5 K/9 looks about right.
Corey Dawkins
2009: Elijah Dukes
No one has ever questioned his talent, only his ability to use his talent and stay out of trouble. Call me crazy but I think those days are behind him. 25/25 is well within reach and well within the range of possibility this year with Dunn hitting around him. Dukes increased his OPS last year over 150 points while increasing his OBP significantly. His BABIP was very slightly above normal but his line drive rate increased significantly as well. I think this year he goes 25/25.
2009:Matt Kemp
Kemp will be hitting around Manny and already has 25/25 potential. If he starts to really focus on controlling the zone and hit the pitches that he can handle, I can see Soriano in his prime but with slightly better OBP. The chance of getting him cheap has probably passed, but you can still get him for good value.
2010: Max Scherzer
Scherzer flat out has ace stuff and assuming he can stay healthy, he can give you strikeout rates that approach Liriano pre-Tommy John. The only knock on him was some question about his health as he battled fatigue last year and over the winter. He may be young but he's not as young as people think as he'll turn 25 in July. He's approaching the end of the injury nexus that Will Carroll and others at BaseballProspectus discuss over there. Next year, I think that he'll be released from all innings limitations and he could easily top 200Ks.
Kevin Jebens
2009: Sean Marshall
When he won the fifth starting spot on the Cubs, Sean Marshall became very fantasy relevant. He’s always had decent skills, and looking just at his major league time he’s improved in K/9 and K/BB, with only a slight regression in BB/9 from 2007 to 2008. He’s also done better when in the rotation, as opposed to pitching from the bullpen. The fact that the Cubs are currently a contender means he should have good run support and a chance to with 12+ games over a full season.
2009: Lastings Milledge
He’s not a big sleeper per se, but looking at his ADP, I’d rather have him over some guys taken ahead of him. He just received the nod to be the leadoff hitter for Washington, so his SB numbers will continue to please. He’s also developed some power, so a line of 20/35 could be in his future. Note the increase in SLG and OBP from the first half to the second half. Also note that he matched his SB total from the first half with 80 less AB. His increase of line drive percent will help him maintain a high hit percentage, especially in his spacious home park.
2010: Andrew McCutchen
Here’s one of my favorite keeper options, and he’ll cost less than many others because he’s stuck in Pittsburgh. Those who know about him realize he could be a five-category producer. He’s young, so the power at the big league level isn’t here yet, but his speed is going to tide over owners until he starts hitting 20 HR. The neat thing I found: in the three seasons where he split time between two different levels, he actually improved in AVG, OBP, and SLG at the higher level. He’ll only be 22 during 2009, but come 2010 he could very well be BJ Upton lite.
Troy Patterson
2009: Shin Soo-Choo
He's finally healthy after dealing with different injuries including Tommy John surgery. Last year he showed his skills and he enters 2009 with the full time job in Cleveland. The 14 homers in 317 ABs might have been a bit over his head, but with the time missed we really don't know what he can do in a full season. He also seemed to limit his steals, but has stolen as many as 26 bases in AAA. I am going to say Choo will be a 20/20 player in 2009 with an average greater than .280. He will have more value than Corey Hart this season.
2009: Mark Teahen
This was going to be Dernard Span, but the team has decided to put his development on hold by going to the minors. Teahen on the other hand has been ripping the cover off the ball this spring and although his defense at 2B has been only improving slightly he is forcing the Royals to make a tough choice. If Teahen gets the job at 2B he will supply value of a top 10 second baseman.
2010: Tommy Hanson
Sure Hanson is heading to the minors to start 2009, but he is ready to go. His numbers in the minors are very impressive and he has an elite K/9 ratio. His ratio's are even better than David Price. Hence my prediction that Hanson will be a better pitcher in 2010 and if the Braves realize Tom Glavine is done 2009. Price could win in ERA with the GB%, but Hanson should be fine in Atlanta's pitcher park and collect more strikeouts.
Lee Perrault
2009: Javier Vazquez
Vazquez finally goes back to the NL, where his numbers with the Expos actually matched his K/BB ratios. After many years of hard luck, HR-happy park adjustments, and one really strange outlying year in the Bronx, Vazquez's production will finally match his 3+ career K/BB. High strikeouts, a respectable WHIP, and a mid 3s ERA will reign supreme.
2009: Mark Reynolds
With HR/FB% numbers comparable to Mark Teixeira, Dan Uggla, Prince Fielder and Pat Burrell, Reynolds should easily crack 35 HRs this year. Reynolds just needs to actually put the bat on the ball in the zone, and he's primed for elite production. If he can improve his zone contact levels another 10%, he'll be putting up numbers like Adam Dunn(with a better BA!)--at 3B. Reynolds will end up at 260/355/525, 35HRs and 10SBs
2010: Clay Buchholz
It'll take the Red Sox one more season to finally end the Tim Wakefield love affair in the rotation. Buchholz' mechanics have been reset after the Red Sox foolishly tried to refine them last year. Let's hope they realize that consistency is sometimes just as important as ideal mechanics (see Lincecum, Timothy). Clay should be locked in as the #5 next year, and will be ready for a full year breakout. A 3.7 ERA, 1.3 WHIP, and 8.5 K/9 looks about right.
Sunday, April 5
For Fun: Things I'd Love to See That Will Never Happen
It's the weekend, and that's a good time for a completely useless post. Here are some extreme scenarios that came to me as I wasted my Sunday afternoon trying to come up with real articles. So here they are, in countdown form just because it seems cooler:
10. After failing to hustle in 2008, BJ Upton becomes even worse in 2009, opting to walk around the bases after his first few HR. Instead of benching him, Joe Maddon makes him the bat boy for the rest of the year.
9. All MLB managers finally realize how overvalued saves and closers are, and every team goes to bullpen by committee. Fantasy teams who went closer-heavy in the early rounds cry for weeks.
8. The Pittsburgh Pirates decide that they're sick of losing and start playing full-contact baseball. Tag-outs become diving tackles, and every player sharpens their spikes. TV network executives decide they like it and persuade umpires to stop ejecting the Pirates players. They take the World Series title due to every other team forfeiting.
7. In a league-wide conspiracy, MLB teams sign all the out-of-work steroid users, including Clemens, Bonds, and McGwire. Every time one of them comes to bat, they're beaned in their injection sites, causing internal damage. Jose Canseco complains that he's not being included, so he's beaned in the head, which puts him in a coma.
6. ESPN admits that adding Steve Phillips to a broadcast that already includes Joe Morgan is to much baseball ignorance for television and sends both packing. They hire people who don't discuss touch, heart and feel when discussing baseball.
5. Realizing that no matter what rules you add to try and make the All Star game mean something it never will. They then remove the home field in the World Series rule and let the game just be for entertainment.
4. After a slow start for the Yankees, Hank Steinbrenner trades 40 million dollars for the entire Florida Marlins roster. They then drop almost everyone besides the pitchers, Hanley Ramirez and Cameron Maybin.
3. Carl Pavano and Mike Hampton total 300 IP this season and battle for the comeback player of the year award. When Hampton wins the award though he breaks 3 bones accepting the award and Pavano strains several muscles watching on TV.
2. Instead of one-game tiebreakers for a playoff slot, the teams have to play Manatee Community College. As the Pirates can tell you, it's no easy task. If MCC wins against both teams, they get the playoff berth instead.
And finally, the #1 scenario that I'd love to see but will never happen.
1. Albert Pujols starts having elbow issues during the season, but before he can go in for surgery, he takes a nasty fall a la Rookie of the Year, resulting in amazing arm strength. Now not only is he a top 1B, he becomes the first 10-category contributor in Roto history.
10. After failing to hustle in 2008, BJ Upton becomes even worse in 2009, opting to walk around the bases after his first few HR. Instead of benching him, Joe Maddon makes him the bat boy for the rest of the year.
9. All MLB managers finally realize how overvalued saves and closers are, and every team goes to bullpen by committee. Fantasy teams who went closer-heavy in the early rounds cry for weeks.
8. The Pittsburgh Pirates decide that they're sick of losing and start playing full-contact baseball. Tag-outs become diving tackles, and every player sharpens their spikes. TV network executives decide they like it and persuade umpires to stop ejecting the Pirates players. They take the World Series title due to every other team forfeiting.
7. In a league-wide conspiracy, MLB teams sign all the out-of-work steroid users, including Clemens, Bonds, and McGwire. Every time one of them comes to bat, they're beaned in their injection sites, causing internal damage. Jose Canseco complains that he's not being included, so he's beaned in the head, which puts him in a coma.
6. ESPN admits that adding Steve Phillips to a broadcast that already includes Joe Morgan is to much baseball ignorance for television and sends both packing. They hire people who don't discuss touch, heart and feel when discussing baseball.
5. Realizing that no matter what rules you add to try and make the All Star game mean something it never will. They then remove the home field in the World Series rule and let the game just be for entertainment.
4. After a slow start for the Yankees, Hank Steinbrenner trades 40 million dollars for the entire Florida Marlins roster. They then drop almost everyone besides the pitchers, Hanley Ramirez and Cameron Maybin.
3. Carl Pavano and Mike Hampton total 300 IP this season and battle for the comeback player of the year award. When Hampton wins the award though he breaks 3 bones accepting the award and Pavano strains several muscles watching on TV.
2. Instead of one-game tiebreakers for a playoff slot, the teams have to play Manatee Community College. As the Pirates can tell you, it's no easy task. If MCC wins against both teams, they get the playoff berth instead.
And finally, the #1 scenario that I'd love to see but will never happen.
1. Albert Pujols starts having elbow issues during the season, but before he can go in for surgery, he takes a nasty fall a la Rookie of the Year, resulting in amazing arm strength. Now not only is he a top 1B, he becomes the first 10-category contributor in Roto history.
FA Leftovers: Jason Kubel
Now that the season’s started, the content of Roto Savants will adapt as well. Instead of the “Draft This, Not That” articles, I’ll be transitioning to some sleeper articles: players you should keep an eye on, or simply go get now from the FA pool.
I love making player comparisons, as the DTNT articles showed. However, some readers were a little skeptical on my use of ADP, especially early in the offseason. Now, however, most drafts are complete, and it’s the first day of the 2009 season. As such, fantasy sites such as Yahoo and ESPN now post the percentage of fantasy teams that own a player, which is like having ADP throughout the year. (I’ve played on CBS as well, and I know they provide own% and start% for starters that in their “Two-Start” section, but if anyone knows where to quickly find own% for all players, please post a link in the comments.)
Jason Kubel is a huge sleeper going into 2009. He has been designated the primary DH for the Twins, and he can play RF if needed, meaning he should have no problem reaching 500+ AB. So why is this good news for fantasy owners who invest in him?
Kubel has the ability to hit for power. He hit 20 HR in 463 AB last season, with a respectable 22 doubles and a .471 SLB. Surprisingly, he also had 5 triples, showing that although he’s not going to steal bases, he’s a good baserunner, so those extra-base hits should keep coming in. Another point I like for his power is that he’s still young enough to develop more.
Looking into this G/L/F ratios, he took a step forward. I love his second-half line drive percent of 24%, which compensated for an abnormally low (for him) first-half 16%. Comparing 2008 to 2007, he reduced the number of groundballs he hit and increased his fly balls, resulting in more HR.
Sure, he may not be a top-20 OF, but he makes a great #3 OF for your fantasy team.
Here’s why he’s such a bargain: he’s almost a guarantee to be available in your league, unless you play with Minnesota fans. He’s owned in just 9% of Yahoo leagues and 6% of ESPN leagues. For a comparison, someone like Raul Ibanez, who’s aging and on the decline despite moving to the Phillies, is owned in 89% of Yahoo leagues and 100% of ESPN leagues.
Compare Ron Shandler’s projections for Kubel and Ibanez:
Kubel: 496 AB, .276/72/21/81
Ibanez: 558 AB, .288/81/23/91
It looks like Ibanez is well ahead of Kubel until you take in the difference in AB. If Kubel is projected with 550 AB, it comes to .276/80/23/90. That’s spot on with Ibanez. Given his youth and growth over last year, there’s a chance he could go even higher, with an outside chance at 30 HR.
Even the most skeptical projections see him reaching 20 HR with 500 AB. Bill James likes him for an AVG over .280, and Shandler says he has upside for .290. Yet he’s going nearly undrafted in two of the largest fantasy providers. Personally, I’ll take a shot at the young up-and-comer as opposed to the veteran who could decline at any time.
I love making player comparisons, as the DTNT articles showed. However, some readers were a little skeptical on my use of ADP, especially early in the offseason. Now, however, most drafts are complete, and it’s the first day of the 2009 season. As such, fantasy sites such as Yahoo and ESPN now post the percentage of fantasy teams that own a player, which is like having ADP throughout the year. (I’ve played on CBS as well, and I know they provide own% and start% for starters that in their “Two-Start” section, but if anyone knows where to quickly find own% for all players, please post a link in the comments.)
Jason Kubel is a huge sleeper going into 2009. He has been designated the primary DH for the Twins, and he can play RF if needed, meaning he should have no problem reaching 500+ AB. So why is this good news for fantasy owners who invest in him?
Kubel has the ability to hit for power. He hit 20 HR in 463 AB last season, with a respectable 22 doubles and a .471 SLB. Surprisingly, he also had 5 triples, showing that although he’s not going to steal bases, he’s a good baserunner, so those extra-base hits should keep coming in. Another point I like for his power is that he’s still young enough to develop more.
Looking into this G/L/F ratios, he took a step forward. I love his second-half line drive percent of 24%, which compensated for an abnormally low (for him) first-half 16%. Comparing 2008 to 2007, he reduced the number of groundballs he hit and increased his fly balls, resulting in more HR.
Sure, he may not be a top-20 OF, but he makes a great #3 OF for your fantasy team.
Here’s why he’s such a bargain: he’s almost a guarantee to be available in your league, unless you play with Minnesota fans. He’s owned in just 9% of Yahoo leagues and 6% of ESPN leagues. For a comparison, someone like Raul Ibanez, who’s aging and on the decline despite moving to the Phillies, is owned in 89% of Yahoo leagues and 100% of ESPN leagues.
Compare Ron Shandler’s projections for Kubel and Ibanez:
Kubel: 496 AB, .276/72/21/81
Ibanez: 558 AB, .288/81/23/91
It looks like Ibanez is well ahead of Kubel until you take in the difference in AB. If Kubel is projected with 550 AB, it comes to .276/80/23/90. That’s spot on with Ibanez. Given his youth and growth over last year, there’s a chance he could go even higher, with an outside chance at 30 HR.
Even the most skeptical projections see him reaching 20 HR with 500 AB. Bill James likes him for an AVG over .280, and Shandler says he has upside for .290. Yet he’s going nearly undrafted in two of the largest fantasy providers. Personally, I’ll take a shot at the young up-and-comer as opposed to the veteran who could decline at any time.
Friday, April 3
Review My Draft
2 more to go over before the weekend. Lets get them at the same time. First up is Rob with a 10 team H2H points league with 10 keepers this year and next year you can keep 12. He only kept 6 players so he gets 4 picks in the early stages of the draft. Here is his final roster with draft slot in ()
10 teams are so different from 12 as there is such an availability of talent in 10 team leagues. I mean I could nitpick over players like Rios and Galarraga, but I also don't know who was already kept in this league. I wouldn't make any changes to this team at this point and injuries shouldn't be an immediate concern for you.
The next draft is also a 10 team league by Joe, but this is Roto and not H2H. No keepers so lets look at the final team.
This infield outside of Pujols is not my favorite. Phillips, Longoria and Young are usually all overvalued. I don't have the draft slot here, but more than likely they went a few rounds before their value would put them.
The pitching is much better and has talent from top to bottom. Devine should probably be moved though if you can find another closer. Another Galarraga, which is not my favorite and I have yet to draft him.
What does everyone think of these teams?
C Iannetta (17)
1B Votto (8)
2B Pedroia (K)
3B Aramis Ramirez (K)
SS Hanley Ramirez (K)
MI Alexei Ramirez (K)
CI Chris Davis (9)
OF Carlos Lee (K)
OF Rios (7)
OF C. Hart (10)
OF Bruce (11)
OF Werth (14)
UT Sandoval (20)
UT Encarnacion (21)
SP Johan (K)
SP Gallardo (12)
SP Wainwright (15)
SP Lowe (16)
SP Meche (18)
SP Jimenez (22)
RP Jenks (13)
RP Motte (19)
RP Gonzalez (23)
BN Parra (24)
BN Lind (25)
BN A. Galarraga (26)
BN Spilborghs (27)
BN Butler (28)
BN Shoppach (29)
10 teams are so different from 12 as there is such an availability of talent in 10 team leagues. I mean I could nitpick over players like Rios and Galarraga, but I also don't know who was already kept in this league. I wouldn't make any changes to this team at this point and injuries shouldn't be an immediate concern for you.
The next draft is also a 10 team league by Joe, but this is Roto and not H2H. No keepers so lets look at the final team.
C: Soto
1B: Pujols
2B: Phillips
3B: Longoria
SS: M. Young
OF: Kemp
OF: Hawpe
OF: C. Lee
UTIL: Pence
SP: Halladay
SP: Billingsley
RP: Nathan
RP: Scherzer
P: Vazquez
P: Wainwright
P: R. Johnson
Bench: Weiters
Bench: Pab Sandoval
Bench: Devine
Bench: Galaraga
Bench: J. Sanchez
This infield outside of Pujols is not my favorite. Phillips, Longoria and Young are usually all overvalued. I don't have the draft slot here, but more than likely they went a few rounds before their value would put them.
The pitching is much better and has talent from top to bottom. Devine should probably be moved though if you can find another closer. Another Galarraga, which is not my favorite and I have yet to draft him.
What does everyone think of these teams?
How to Actually Read Spring Stats
I'm watching a lot of MLB network lately and some of this commentary is really getting to me. This is also the logic used by many teams, which is scary in its own right. If any team is looking at a players hitting line of BA/OBP/SLG and judging who is the best player to pick for a position then they are in trouble. There are some very simple numbers to look at if you are making roster choices, but they are not average, RBIs, ERA, wins, etc.
You want to see if a pitcher is striking out 3 or more batters for every walk. There really isn't enough time to see any improvement of skills, but you want to make sure they are still getting solid ratios. A good example is Dan Haren with an 8.5 K/BB this spring and is ready to go. I wouldn't take this to far, but Gavin Floyd has a 2.50 K/BB so far this spring, Just saying.
Many announcers will watch a player give up 5 runs in 5 innings of work and say he needs to make adjustments to get better, but he had 4 strikeouts and only one walk. These are often a case of tough luck hits against and bad luck. A good case is again Dan Haren, with that amazing K/BB his ERA is 4.40.
As for hitters we want to see good contact rates and a good eye. Power is good, but often against lower level pitchers the power can be deceiving. A good example is Colby Rasmus who appears to be headed for a job coming out of spring (not official yet). His line right now is .280/.368/.451, but he is tied for the spring training lead in strikeouts with 25. He is an extreme case, but the point is that analysts continue to ignore numbers like BABIP and K/BB.
When I read spring stats I look at strikeouts and walks for both pitcher and hitters. I pay attention to SLG, but I take it with a grain of salt.
You want to see if a pitcher is striking out 3 or more batters for every walk. There really isn't enough time to see any improvement of skills, but you want to make sure they are still getting solid ratios. A good example is Dan Haren with an 8.5 K/BB this spring and is ready to go. I wouldn't take this to far, but Gavin Floyd has a 2.50 K/BB so far this spring, Just saying.
Many announcers will watch a player give up 5 runs in 5 innings of work and say he needs to make adjustments to get better, but he had 4 strikeouts and only one walk. These are often a case of tough luck hits against and bad luck. A good case is again Dan Haren, with that amazing K/BB his ERA is 4.40.
As for hitters we want to see good contact rates and a good eye. Power is good, but often against lower level pitchers the power can be deceiving. A good example is Colby Rasmus who appears to be headed for a job coming out of spring (not official yet). His line right now is .280/.368/.451, but he is tied for the spring training lead in strikeouts with 25. He is an extreme case, but the point is that analysts continue to ignore numbers like BABIP and K/BB.
When I read spring stats I look at strikeouts and walks for both pitcher and hitters. I pay attention to SLG, but I take it with a grain of salt.
4/3/09 - Friday Rewind
We have our first few entrants into the Baseball Prospectus contest, but more are needed please send stories/articles/haiku's/whatever to TroyPatterson@RotoSavants.com
Top Fantasy Baseball Stories
Top Fantasy Baseball Stories
- Kevin discussed the easiest way to ruin your team in H2H point league.
- RazzBall looks at the Closer situation and I think Motte can quickly be one of the top.
- FantasyBallJunkie tells us which players are best on a per-appearance value. (Rich Harden leads pitchers.
- My Statistical Sleeper article this week was looking at players going undrafted.
Site Updates
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Thursday, April 2
Calling all Articles
If your draft is over and you have good stories, bad picks, horrible drafting formats or some other topic that would make a good article please send it here as we are still accepting articles for the writing contest. I will begin posting the articles next week once games have begun so please get them in ASAP.
If you have a site to promote please feel free to add a link and I will keep it in the post for you. Send all stories to TroyPatterson@rotosavants.com
More details here.
If you have a site to promote please feel free to add a link and I will keep it in the post for you. Send all stories to TroyPatterson@rotosavants.com
More details here.
Javier Vazquez post is up at FP911.com
I spoke about this post in my How They Did That post this week. Please head over and check out why I believe Vazquez has trouble matching his skills.
Closers Already Popping Up Everywhere
Following along the lines we have been suggesting all along, you should never overpay for closers. There are exceptions when players fall in drafts (I got Mariano Rivera in round 10 of my draft on Sunday). Otherwise I stick to the back-end closers, who you can draft in rounds 11-16. Usually around this time we have closer choices made on some teams or injuries changing the situation. Here are some situations that have changed already.
Jason Motte - I can't see Motte letting go of the job once he gets it. He had a 14.85 K/9 in AAA last year and in a short 11 IP callup he still held a 13.09 K/9. His walk rates are also solid, and he has posted K/BB rates over 4 at almost every level. He is limited in experience and without an official announcement as closer there is still some doubt, but I am betting on him this season.
Kevin Gregg - We discussed over the weekend that Carlos Marmol is a much better pitcher, but teams and managers make the closer's job out to be much tougher than it really is. Marmol can post strikeout rates nearly as good as Motte and should be closing. I think Lou is very slow to make a change this year, so grab Gregg if available and expect him to close most of this year.
Brad Ziegler - He isn't as good as his numbers looked in 2008, but he has some good skills. His strikeout rate took a drop from the minors and made his K/BB poor, but he is an elite groundball pitcher. He induces groundballs over 64% of the time and really limits homers. This type of skill is better as a middle reliever or starter; a closer should strikeout more hitters. The more hits on the ground, the more chance an error or hit could get through and give up runs. I don't think you need to worry about his job until Joey Devine comes back, which may be a while after visiting Dr. Andrews.
Fernando Rodney - He has passed Brandon Lyon and been named the opening day closer. This wasn't a ringing endorsement, as Leyland said it didn't mean he would be sent in on every chance. This doesn't sound good and looks like a situation to avoid, but if you have the bench spot, you could take a flyer on him. He walks way too many hitters and is a poor option, but I can't say Lyon is much better.
Jason Motte - I can't see Motte letting go of the job once he gets it. He had a 14.85 K/9 in AAA last year and in a short 11 IP callup he still held a 13.09 K/9. His walk rates are also solid, and he has posted K/BB rates over 4 at almost every level. He is limited in experience and without an official announcement as closer there is still some doubt, but I am betting on him this season.
Kevin Gregg - We discussed over the weekend that Carlos Marmol is a much better pitcher, but teams and managers make the closer's job out to be much tougher than it really is. Marmol can post strikeout rates nearly as good as Motte and should be closing. I think Lou is very slow to make a change this year, so grab Gregg if available and expect him to close most of this year.
Brad Ziegler - He isn't as good as his numbers looked in 2008, but he has some good skills. His strikeout rate took a drop from the minors and made his K/BB poor, but he is an elite groundball pitcher. He induces groundballs over 64% of the time and really limits homers. This type of skill is better as a middle reliever or starter; a closer should strikeout more hitters. The more hits on the ground, the more chance an error or hit could get through and give up runs. I don't think you need to worry about his job until Joey Devine comes back, which may be a while after visiting Dr. Andrews.
Fernando Rodney - He has passed Brandon Lyon and been named the opening day closer. This wasn't a ringing endorsement, as Leyland said it didn't mean he would be sent in on every chance. This doesn't sound good and looks like a situation to avoid, but if you have the bench spot, you could take a flyer on him. He walks way too many hitters and is a poor option, but I can't say Lyon is much better.
Wednesday, April 1
Review Your Draft
From reader William:
10 team leagues are always so interesting since they are so deep with talent. It's even more about luck and injuries then a 12 or 15 team league. I also like this leagues added stats with OBP, K and H/9. Although H/9 is an innteresting choice since it is just a watered down version of WHIP.
The team itself is solid with my only questions being who will replace any injuries in the infield with all UTIL and Bench being outfielders? Also I am wondering who was a vailable when Zambrano was taken? His skills are in a decline and only his GB% is saving him. Could someone else have been had there?
Even though his bench is OF heavy I'm guessing in a 10 team league there are many good choices still available on the waiver to replace an injury. What does everyone think of this roster?
I am in a 10 team, mixed, rotisserie league. 6x6 (R, HR, RBI, SB, K, OBP) x (W, SV, K, ERA, WHIP, H/9)
C - McCann
1B - Teixeira
2B - Utley
SS - Jeter
3B - A. Ramirez
OF - Kemp
OF - Hart
OF - Pence
UT - Werth
BN - Hawpe
BN - Spilborghs
BN - Guillen
SP - Peavy
SP - Sabathia
SP - Cain
SP - Zambrano
RP - Hanrahan
RP - Sherrill
P - Street
P - Kuo
BN - R. Johnson
BN - Garza
BN - J. Sanchez
BN - Corpas
10 team leagues are always so interesting since they are so deep with talent. It's even more about luck and injuries then a 12 or 15 team league. I also like this leagues added stats with OBP, K and H/9. Although H/9 is an innteresting choice since it is just a watered down version of WHIP.
The team itself is solid with my only questions being who will replace any injuries in the infield with all UTIL and Bench being outfielders? Also I am wondering who was a vailable when Zambrano was taken? His skills are in a decline and only his GB% is saving him. Could someone else have been had there?
Even though his bench is OF heavy I'm guessing in a 10 team league there are many good choices still available on the waiver to replace an injury. What does everyone think of this roster?
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