Draft This, Not That: Joey Votto VS Kevin Youkilis

In DTNT, we offer up comparable players (or stats or strategies or whatever), reveal our preference, and provide an analysis to support it.

Everyone knows that the corner infield spots, and in particular first base, are deep positions where you can get power production and good RBI numbers. Despite the fact that almost every manager in the league could walk away with a 20-HR first baseman, there’s a few who go too early in most drafts, and there’s a few who have move value in later rounds. I’ll gladly let Red Sox fans jump all over Kevin Youkilis, and then I’ll pick up Joey Votto a few rounds later.

Kevin Youkilis
Youkilis had a fantastic season in 2008, and fantasy owners were pleasantly surprised. Everyone knew he was a nice option, with eligibility at both corners, but he outperformed every projection. That’s actually the problem. Before 2008, you could get him at a good price. After 2008, a career year, you have to overpay to get him, and I don’t trust him to maintain that level of production. Youk has consistently had a hit percentage above the league average, but he outdid even his own lofty average, going from 33% the previous two years to 35%. It’s hard to believe he can sustain a hit percentage 5% over the league norm, and I’ll bet he falls back to 32%, which will bring his average back to just under .300.

Ironically, the Greek god of walks saw his walk percentage drop in 2008. While this isn’t cause for concern considering the offensive production, the slight drop in eye could lead to problems in 2009 if it continues.

Youkilis’s hr/f percent was extremely off from his past years, going from rates of 6% and 8% to 18% in the second half of 2008. I’m sure part of that is sustainable, but assuming he can repeat is risky. Can he hit 20+ in 2009? Definitely. Will he near or surpass 30? I say no. And as I said before, the fact that everyone, is so high on him means you’re paying more for a season that won’t be as good.

Joey Votto
I like the young talent the Reds have in their lineup, especially their first baseman. Joey Votto is a developing power hitter who will be a fantasy stud in 2009. His downside when compared to Youkilis is that he simply won’t get as many R because he doesn’t hit in Boston’s stacked lineup. But that’s all the downside he has, and I’ll gladly sacrifice 10 R for a stronger overall hitter. He showed growth in nearly every important category from the first half to the second half: AVG, OBP, SLG, bb%, ct%, h%. And he’s only 25, meaning he’s more likely to improve upon 2008 than Youkilis.

Here’s the fun facts that make me drool over Votto:

-Had the 8th highest OPS of all NL hitters in the second half
-2nd highest OPS for lefties against LHP, which shows he can hit anyone
-6th best OPS of players under 26
-3rd best RC/27 of players under 26

Conclusion
When you look at their ADP, Youkilis is often going at end of the fourth round, whereas Votto’s falling to almost the seventh round. How can you not pick up the better talent at a later spot? Bill James projects 7 more HR, 9 more SB, and .018 more in AVG for Votto, with 15 less runs. Ron Shandler likes Youkilis a little more than James, but Votto equals or betters every category except for runs again.

Do you think Youkilis can reach his 2008 levels again? Do you believe that Votto will reach a new level, like Bill James?

3/6/09 - Friday Rewind

We have our first few entrants into the Baseball Prospectus contest, but more are needed please send stories/articles/haiku's/whatever to TroyPatterson@RotoSavants.com

Roto Savants Content Recap

• Matt from the RotoSavants Roto League gave us his best and worst from the first 10 rounds.
• Kevin gave us a choice between Meche and Zambrano and told us to take Meche. I gave you Slowey over Zambrano and Cliff Lee.
• Minor League Talents was all for drafting the powerful Travis Snider this year.
• Is Kelly Johnson getting forgotten in 2009. We sure think so.

2009 Draft Rankings
The draft rankings for 2009 Fantasy Baseball drafts can be found here.

Top Fantasy Baseball Stories

• Lester added a one-seamer fastball last year with good sink action. Helps explain the rise in GB%.
• Grey's intersting take on the overhyping of Josh Hamilton.
• Tim Dierkes released his projections. Very easy to reformat how you would like.
• Fantasy Ball Junkie takes a look at locking up your UTIL spot early.

Site Updates

• Follow on Twitter for up to the minute analysis and discussion @TroyPatterson
• Make sure to get the RotoSavants RSS feed.
  

Spring Training Notables

Here are some early Spring Training notes to report.

- Pablo Sandoval is 8-17 with 2 homers in 6 games.

- Saltalamacchia is working with the starting lineup and is 7-12 in the early going. He is the early favorite for the majority of ABs.

- Michael Bourn has taken 4 walks in 20 PAs. Probably a fluke, but an increase in BB% would make him a great improvement.

- Matt Wieters is 3-9 with his first homer already. I'm hoping he makes the Orioles choice a tough one.

- The exhibition game stats are not being counted on MLB stats. Keep an eye on these games as these games should be valuable for younger players fighting for a roster spot against some of the best in the world.

- The MLB Network has made life much more enjoyable in March for us in New England weather.

Don't forget to check out today's Player Profile at FP911.com on Alfonso Soriano.

2009 Sleeper - Kelly Johnson

Kelly Johnson had his first season over 150 games played, but with a small step back in power many fantasy managers are overlooking a very valuable player. He has to make some improvements, but based on his past he can do it in 2009.

Minor Leagues and Early Career

Johnson started 2005 in AAA and hit 8 homers in only 155 AB. He had a 1.50 BB/K rate and had a batting line of .310/.438/.581. He was calledup and appeared in 87 games that year for the Braves. He continued to show good power with 9 homers in 290 AB, but a BABIP elbow expected levels left him with a line of .241/.334/.397.

He then lost his 2006 season to Tommy John surgery on June 1, 2006. This left him as a sleeper for 2007, and he supplied big time as a second base option. He hit 16 homers and stole 9 bases with a hitting line of .276/.375/.457. His numbers all looked great, and he was healthy as well.

Disappointing Season

2008 was a disappointment to many as his power took a step back, and so did his walk rate. Kelly has had a walk rate over 12% both previous seasons in the majors, but in 2008 he was only walking 8.7%. His average was improved, but both his OBP and run totals fell. He was swinging at 7% more pitches, and many of those were out of the zone pitches.

He did steal 11 bases, which helped him maintain good value as a second baseman, but much more was expected. He has also only played 2B for two years now and is still learning the position.

2009 Outlook

There are many reasons to still think highly of Kelly, as even his poor 2008 was an above average line for a second baseman, but also he has shown better performance in the past. He showed a 10% HR/FB in 2007 right after the surgery, and that should be attainable. He also didn't lose much in his SLG as it went from .457 in 2007 to .446 in 2008. This was a result of a large increase in doubles, going from 26 to 39.

RotoSavants would never suggest a player on the fact that he is 27, but the growth of a player often reaches a pinnacle near that age, and Kelly could still have some growth in him.

He is liked by most projection systems to beat his 2007 season. PECOTA is calling for 92/17/75/12/.287, making him the 6th best 2B and the 62nd best value in drafts. CouchManagers.com has Kelly going in the 12th round of drafts, and he is an excellent steal there. I would suggest looking to Johnson if you do not get Utley or Kinsler earlier in your draft.

2009 Roto Savants Sleepers

Request for Articles

I don't want people to forget that we are still looking for articles/stories for the Baseball Prospectus contest. These do not need to be more than 500 words and have some relevance to fantasy baseball of course.

I would like to see articles that are entertaining, humorous or instructive. There is no requirements and all voting will be done by the readers of the site on a monthly basis.

Once you have written your article please submit to myself at TroyPatterson@RotoSavants.com

2009 Fantasy Baseball Draft Cheat Sheet

If you want details on why a player is where he is you can ask in the comments. I know there are some big players ranked lower in this ranking than many are used to. This should not be used for every league, so make adjustments as you see fit. I rank largely based on PECOTA projections as I find them most helpful. This also causes a bit of overvalue to steals. Make sure when using this cheat sheet that you find power when available.

Also, just because I think Kelly Johnson is ranked 64 doesn't mean you should draft him in the 5th or 6th round. These are the value they could give you, but make sure you see where they are going in real drafts and adjust. There is also added bonus for outfielders here as though this is a 5 OF league. If you need less OF you can devalue OF some.

1.Ramirez, Hanley
2.Reyes, Jose
3.Pujols, Albert
4.Wright, David
5.Rodriguez, Alex
6.Sizemore, Grady
7.Braun, Ryan
8.Santana, Johan
9.Beltran, Carlos
10.Kinsler, Ian
11.Cabrera, Miguel
12.Rollins, Jimmy
13.Upton, B.J.
14.Berkman, Lance
15.Utley, Chase
16.Soriano, Alfonso
17.Lincecum, Timothy
18.Sabathia, C.c.
19.Markakis, Nick
20.Rios, Alexis
21.Howard, Ryan
22.Teixeira, Mark
23.Fielder, Prince
24.Holliday, Matt
25.Hart, Corey
26.McLouth, Nathan
27.Jones, Chipper
28.Kemp, Matthew
29.Roberts, Brian
30.Haren, Dan
31.Young, Chris
32.Ellsbury, Jacoby
33.Votto, Joey
34.Peavy, Jake
35.Webb, Brandon
36.Phillips, Brandon
37.Manny Ramirez
38.Bruce, Jay
39.Harden, Rich
40.Papelbon, Jonathan
41.Rivera, Mariano
42.Rodriguez, Francisco
43.Abreu, Bob
44.Vazquez, Javier
45.Zimmerman, Ryan
46.Nathan, Joe
47.Pedroia, Dustin
48.Atkins, Garrett
49.Crawford, Carl
50.Halladay, Roy
51.Victorino, Shane
52.Pence, Hunter
53.Hamilton, Josh
54.Lee, Carlos
55.Broxton, Jonathan
56.Longoria, Evan
57.Beckett, Josh
58.Ramirez, Aramis
59.Guerrero, Vladimir
60.Hamels, Cole
61.Gonzalez, Adrian
62.Fuentes, Brian
63.Jackson, Conor
64.Mccann, Brian
65.Johnson, Kelly
66.Ramirez, Alexei
67.Oswalt, Roy
68.Gordon, Alex
69.Ethier, Andre
70.Martin, Russell
71.Tulowitzki, Troy
72.Jones, Adam
73.Santana, Ervin
74.Chamberlain, Joba
75.Werth, Jayson
76.Marmol, Carlos
77.Morneau, Justin
78.Dukes, Elijah
79.Damon, Johnny
80.Uggla, Dan
81.Lidge, Brad
82.Upton, Justin
83.Soria, Joakim
84.Milledge, Lastings
85.Shields, James
86.Beltre, Adrian
87.Delgado, Carlos
88.Granderson, Curtis
89.Ludwick, Ryan
90.Maybin, Cameron
91.Billingsley, Chad
92.Bay, Jason
93.Lee, Derrek
94.Weeks, Rickie
95.Encarnacion, Edwin
96.Cruz, Nelson
97.Hoffman, Trevor
98.Bradley, Milton
99.Wood, Kerry
100.Lowe, Derek
100.Cain, Matt
101-200 Coming Soon

2009 Catcher Rankings
2009 First Base Rankings
2009 Second Base Rankings
2009 Shortstop Rankings
2009 Third Base Rankings
2009 Outfielder Rankings
2009 DH Rankings
2009 Starting Pitcher Rankings
2009 Closer Rankings
2009 Draft Cheat Sheet 1-100
2009 Draft Sleepers
2009 Draft Busts

Fun: Draft Strategies You Don't Want to Adopt

Time to look on the lighter side of fantasy baseball! While everyone's evaluating proven draft strategies (our own review will be forthcoming), I thought it prudent to direct fantasy managers away from the concepts that don't quite work.

The Lou "I Need Left-Handed Bats" Piniella Strategy: Every batter on your team has to be a lefty, and every pitcher has to be a southpaw. If you're pure at heart, you'll even reject the switch hitters.

The Yankee Strategy: You only take the biggest contracts available. Sounded like a good idea, until you realize you ended up with Barry Zito, Mike Hampton, and Carl Pavano as your aces...

The Vegetarian Strategy: Inspired by Prince Fielder, you only take the veggie lovers. (Can you even fill out a roster this way? Fielder might count for two or three slots...)

The "Early Bird Catches the Worm" Strategy: With all the rookie hype, you only draft prospects and wait for it to pay off. And wait. And wait...

The Popeye Strategy: Taking a page from the well-known cartoon character, you only draft players who have abnormally sized body parts, or are abnormally tall or short. Guys to fill your team include Barry Bonds and his huge head, tiny David Eckstein, and the ridiculously tall duo of Randy Johnson and Jon Rauch.

The "Spooneybarger All-Stars" Strategy: Only the goofiest names for your team! Laugh to yourself as other managers try to say your roster with a straight face. Other players include Boof Bonser, Coco Crisp, and Terry Tiffee

The "Anagram Team" Strategy: Did you know that Albert Pujols can be rearranged to "J's Pout Label" or "Super Tall Job"? How about Ian Kinsler: "Slink a Rein" or "Risk Ale Inn." And Ryan Braun should use his anagram as his nickname: "Runny Arab." I doubt Derek Jeter will want to use "Jerked tree" as his nickname.

I think we'll stop there. Any other ones you want added, post it in the comment section!

Email Bag - Young Outfielders for 2009

We got our first submitted question for 2009 and it is from Jim in regards to targeting outfielders to contribute in 2009. Here is Jims question:

Hope you have time for a quick bit of advice for a 5x5 NL Only Keeper League. i have too many potential keepers and am looking to trade extra pitching and hitters for a single better player. I can give some good / very good player w/ nice 2010 upside. I'd like 2009 production. How do you rank McLouth, Kemp and Pence for 2009 Season? I've got it 3,1,2 respectively. Kemp out front by quite a bit.

As you can see we are comparing 3 fairly even outfielders, but which do I like for 2009 contribution?

I have to agree with Jim that Kemp is the best of the group, but maybe not as far in front. I think you could make a case for each being number one, but I do agree he is the best. I would rank them slightly different though: Kemp, McLouth, Pence.

Kemp is limited for power playing in the NL West otherwise he would be even more valuable. McLouth holds the edge over Pence for his ability to get an extra 10 bases and with his commitment to swipe 30 bases he could be even more valuable.

This is one of those questions where I don't think any answer is wrong, but how would you rank these three?

Minor League Talents - Travis Snider

This as a weekly article running every Tuesday here at Roto Savants. I have gotten some questions about players, but if you have minor league drafts and want someone reviewed, let me know and I will put them at the top of the list.

Travis Snider - OF - Toronto Blue Jays

Injury and Health
Snider was slowed last year by a elbow injury that forced him to DH and caused a changed in his swing. He returned to the outfield though and put up good numbers in the remainder of the season. This could lead the Blue Jays to move him to DH to limit his throwing, but for now he could spend time in the outfield.

Skill Set
Snider, given the nickname "The Franchise", is another pure power hitter looking for a shot this year. The Scouting Book has labeled him as a potential 40 home run hitter. His power is still developing, but he could supply 20 home runs in 2009. He is only 21 so a further development in power is a good bet.

When it comes to his plate patience there is much to wish for with Snider. He has a K rate around 30% and his walks has had varying results. In 98 games at AA last year he had a BB% of 12.6%, but in AAA and the majors it was under 7%. To be successful with that high strikeout rate he will need a walk rate of at least 10%.

His BABIP has continually been near elite levels often over .400. In the majors with good defenses you can expect an elevated BABIP, but not that high. His BABIP is projected to be between .337-.357. He will have to maintain this level to hold an average around .260-.270 or his contact rate will drag his average down.

Here is a video of Snider in a homer derby.

Major League ETA
There is no time like the present for Snider. He got a short callup in September last year and looked ready to go. He is currently slated to start in the outfield and with Vernon Wells starting out injured this should be a sure thing. It would take a very poor spring to have him go back to AAA.

Conclusion and Advice
As you can see here I drafted Snider in the 21st round of the RotoSavants Prize League on Sunday night. He is my first bench spot filled and could easily fill in for any of my young outfielders if they struggle. I wouldn't go to high on him as his strikeout rate could easily lead to struggles, but if he is given enough ABs he'll be fine.

John Lackey PFx

I haven't written here in a while, focusing most of my attention getting my blog up and running, but I came across something interesting and I felt I had to share it. For all of the serious fantasy baseball managers, we know about Lackey's splits from last season to the tune of 2.47 ERA in the first half and a 4.99 ERA in the second half.

His BA against in the 1st half was roughly .230 while in the second it jumped to .330. Amazingly in the first half he stranded 91% of the runners so of course, it regressed back down to 69% in the 2nd half. This part looks like it was just regression but his control seriously spiked up to levels not seen since 2006. His strikeout rate stayed in line with the last 2 years so his K:BB ratio significantly dropped in the 2nd half. My last bit of true statistical analysis was his HR/FB% went from 9% to 20% in the second half. The problem is that even the 9% isn't "normal" for him. The last time his HR/FB% was 9% was 2004 as he usually sits around 6-7% for the last several years.

So this got me thinking as to why his HR/FB% suddenly spiked up and since I'm a visual style learner, I decided to look at my PFx graphs. Before I move onto my graphs, I must explain there are some slight differences in how I present them now. All of them use the averages for each game just like before however there are now two lines. First is the normal daily average which is the blue line. This represents the group average for all of the pitches/events on that particular day. The second line (red) is a "moving average" of the last 5 games which is the average over 5 games which I use to notice trends by flattening out the large fluctuations. Each new day's average is added to the average and the oldest game is dropped, thus "moving" the average over the time. Please let me know what you think.

The two main graphs I want to show for end speed is the end speed of the fastball and the changeup.

Fastball:


Changeup:



These two graphs show me that the difference of speeds between the two shrank dramatically over the course of the season. By the end of the year the difference was only 4 MPH and the changeup was in fact coming in faster than slider with obviously much less vertical movement.
This to me is worrisome because clearly it effected his performance. This was my first concern.

The release point looked good, basically consistent across the whole board except for his changeup release point. This started to drop by the end of the year. But going to the movement, you really see what happened.

(FA)
(CU)
(CH)
(SL)

For every pitch, his movement decreased from around July onward. This is not "statistical correction" or luck, that is a skill that was became less effective. The slider by the end of the year basically was coming in flat and difference of movement was only about 2". Think about that, the changeup is coming in at 4MPH less and only moving about 2". Professional hitters can easily adjust to that.

Summary

Fantasy managers (and Mike Scioscia) love Lackey for his durability overall ability. In the first half of last year he was near super human when he came off the DL. Many people thought his statistics were merely regressing towards the mean. Without having reliable PFx data from 2007, I can’t do a direct comparison. What I do know however, is that at the time when his movement was suffering significantly his performance also suffered significantly. Towards the end of the year, all of the movement on his pitches worsened and the velocity difference between his changeup and fastball decreased.

While this is surely not a tell all to end all, it’s another piece in the puzzle of risk management and draft prep.

Fearless Predictions - Troy Patterson

So we all make predictions that border on crazy sometimes, but the four of us here at RotoSavants are going to make our strongest predictions and track them this year. These aren't just guesses that we hope might happen, but are based on some reasoning we will defend. Each week we will release one new fearless prediction. We would like to hear your most fearless predictions too in the comments.

Kevin Slowey will be more valuable than Carlos Zambrano or Cliff Lee.

I have stated many times how much I like Slowey this year, but how much do I think he can do? He is a control pitcher and his strikeouts are not elite, which limits his value, but he will still beat both these pitchers in ERA and WHIP and have a solid shot at wins. Lets look at how he beats each pitcher.

Carlos Zambrano has always had a problem with walks and has never had a K/BB over 2.50. His talent has been in his high groundball rate and limiting home runs. Unfortunately his GB% has dropped almost every season and is close to being average. His current stat line can only support an ERA above 4.00 and he could be as high as 4.50 without some improvement or luck.

Cliff Lee had an amazing season and has had success before winning 18 games in 2005. His 2008 K/BB was about the same as Slowey, but his amazing ERA came from a very lucky HR/FB at 5.1%. His GB% dramatically increased to limit his HR against. It will be interesting to see if this is repeated with some pitching change. He also had the best BB/9 in his career and even a small step back will decrease his K/BB from the elite level.

How does Kevin Slowey Succeed?

Kevin had the third best K/BB in baseball with 160+ IP last year. This is something he can't improve on much, but his low GB% can be improved. His groundball rate got better in the minors and in his last full season (2007) in AAA he had a GB% of 42.4%. If his GB% had been at 42% in 2008 his ERA would have been at 3.70 last year and much more targeted in 2009.

My final estimate will have Slowey beating Lee and Zambrano in ERA, WHIP and within 2 wins of each.

Don't Believe The Hype: Potential

Potential is thrown around a lot in the baseball world when describing young players, underachievers, or "big-name" prospects. Knowing how you can gauge a player's real potential from one who can barely scrape by one Joule is crucial to finding some real draft bargains.

Here's a gem I snagged from the CBS quick player profile posts about Delmon Young(emphasis mine):

Carlos Gomez, CF MIN

News: The Twins have only three outfield spots to divide between four players -- Michael Cuddyer, Carlos Gomez, Denard Span and Delmon Young. The quartet will compete for starting jobs this spring.

Analysis: Young appears the early odd man out, which is ironic considering he probably has the most upside of the bunch. Based on last year's numbers alone, Gomez or Cuddyer wouldn't get to start, but Gomez has plenty of upside in his own right and Cuddyer suffered from a broken foot much of last season. Span provided some intriguing Shane Victorino-like numbers as the Twins leadoff hitter last season, but he could just as easily begin the year on the bench. Of the four, Young, Gomez and Span all deserve late-round picks based on potential, but the Twins' shortage of power means Cuddyer might bump one for a starting spot.

Wait, Young has the most upside of the bunch? Based on what besides random conjecture? Courtesy of The Baseball Cube, I grabbed Delmon's minor league career numbers. A couple quick points:

1) Delmon's SLG numbers had two up-and-down seasons, with decent gains from the Sally League to the Southern Legaue (.536 to .582), and then from AA to AAA (.447, to .474).

2) Delmon's OBP has plummeted since he graduated to AAA, losing 80 points in a first season. He hasn't been able to crack .341 since.

3) Delmon's OPS has dropped each year between his AA and major league seasons. He peaked at 968 in AA and has regressed as far as 724 in his last year with Tampa. He rebounded to 741 in 2008, which I'm guessing is clearly linked to recovering from a pathetic 316 OBP in 2007.

4) Delmon's HR/FB% has dropped since his climb to the majors sporting a 10.7% in 2006, and 7.6% in 2007 and 2008.

Even though Delmon wowed the Sally and Southern Leagues, and was very young for his next stop in his career (he's still only 23), his declining OBP skills upon reaching the majors, very low LD%, and complete disappearance of plus power are huge concerns. Even though he took a few tiny steps forward in 2008, a 5.8 BB% and 18.7 K% are quite frightening major league numbers(See Ellsbury, Jacoby).

While Delmon does have some "upside" based on his age 18-19 seasons, he's still a useless commodity in fantasy. Wouldn't having a bench player like Gomez, who can at least contribute with steals make more sense than a player who's struggling to regain whatever solid skills he apparently once had?

Just mentioning him in the same breath as Cuddyer right now is silly. Until Delmon does something of value at the major league level, he's purely an also-ran in fantasy play and doesn't deserve any upside mention next to a legit 20HR player.

Just one more guy to cross off your list.

If You're Not in a Keeper League, Don't Draft Rookie SP

It's time to rock the boat a little. I firmly believe that fantasy managers shouldn't draft rookie/prospect starters unless they are in a keeper league. Note that I said "draft." I am not against picking up someone who shows some talent after a few starts. However, there are far too many cases of rookies blowing up in your face, as opposed to leading your team to the top of the standings.

Everyone knows that the SP pool is deep, and you can get reliable guys even in the final rounds of a draft. Sure, some people say you should take a few risks in those late rounds, but what about the rookie SP that go earlier, say in the middle rounds of the draft? Every year there's at least a few arms who are hyped up because of a great minor league season, or perhaps a flashy two- or three-start call-up in September the year before. But realistically, how many of these phenoms really give you great fantasy value in their first full year?


Ignoring the Elephant
Okay, I'm going to ignore anyone who wants to throw Tim Lincecum in my face as a counter-point. Why? First of all, his 2007 showing was good but not great. He had the skills, but the final stat line wasn't awe inspiring.

Second, he started in a lot of games, 24 to be exact. That's not really a small preview, and most (not all, but most) of the guys I'll be talking about had little previous MLB experience.

Third, let's be honest: no one saw his 2008 campaign coming. Sure, people projected him to be good, and they recognized his talent, but I can't believe anyone said he was going to win the Cy Young award in 2008.

With that being said, let's look at some of the other touted guys.

Guys Who Weren't Worth Drafting
Clay Buchholz: Only 3 starts in 2007, and add in the fact that he plays for Boston. His 2008 showing wasn't good at all, but he was being drafted in the mid to late rounds last year.

Ian Kennedy: Started 3 games in 2007 and looked great. Started 9 games in 2008 and looked awful. Again, a hype bonus for being in New York.

Phil Hughes: Started 13 games in 2007 and showed potential but not great stats. Everyone jumped on the bandwagon and were disappointed in 2008.

Clayton Kershaw: Had 21 starts in 2008 and didn't play until May, but people were drafting and stashing him. He did pretty well, with a strong K/9 and decent ERA but a poor WHIP. Best 2008 performance of the prospects so far.

Homer Bailey: Didn't do great in 2007 showing, but people were still drafting him based on his big potential. Did even worse in 6 starts for 2008.

Johnny Cueto: No MLB time before 2008, but some people were high on him and drafted him late. He did okay, but you were better off taking an established SP.

Max Scherzer: Did perfectly fine in his MLB debut, but people were expecting him to start, not spend half of his games in the bullpen.

Some Other Examples from Years Past
Matt Cain: Had a great 2005 debut and did perfectly fine in 2006, but people somehow expected him to do even better. I know some people who considered him a let-down. Go figure.

Zach Duke: Great extended showing in 2005, but something went wrong in 2006.

Tom Gorzelanny: Same as Matt Cain. Somehow people expected more, and they weren't happy with his high WHIP and the drop in K/9 from his debut season.

Jered Weaver: A fantastic debut in 2006, but he didn't remain perfect in 2007. Still a respectable season, but not enough to warrant where he was drafted in some leagues.

The Problems with Prospects
There are so many factors that weigh against the rookie SP. First of all, there's the short leash. If the guy doesn't perform well after a few starts, what are the odds that he'll keep getting them? It's more likely that he'll be pushed to the bullpen or be sent back to the minors.

Second, the risk factor is simply a lot to take on. Despite the development of major league equivalent stats (MLEs), with no MLB experience, there's no track record to know what you're getting into. Young guys can be intimidated and nervous for a few starts, especially if one doesn't go well. Despite the high level of talent, not every future ace is perfect out of the gate. I often hear how a pitcher can be pretty good the first time through the league, but when he goes through the second time, batters have adjusted to him, so the pressure's on the rookie to readjust and bring things up a notch. Again, not everyone can do that in their first season.

The final problem is that overhyped cost. Why take a totally unproven SP in the middle rounds when Mark Buehrle, a guy who is extremely consistent and avoids disastrous starts, is still around?

Summary and Final Disclaimer
I said it earlier and I'll say it again: this advice is for non-keeper leagues. Also, I'm not at all suggesting that you never have rookie SP on your team. (Though that certainly could be a strategy that would win.) The point is not to get too excited about young talent that hasn't been proven in the majors. With those middle to mid-late round picks you "wasted" on prospects, you could solidify your offense or pick up reliable starters who've been consistently good (or at least fantasy league average) for years. Just because the talent is there doesn't mean the stellar stats are a guarantee in the rookie season.

Which prospects have you been burned by in past drafts? Who have you gotten lucky on?

Johan Santana's Sore Elbow

Now that Johan Santana has put his opening day start in question due to a sore elbow, is it time to start moving Johan down your draft board?

His pitching style is not a concern, as the changeup is a pitch that is very good for arm health and doesn't cause excess stress on the arm. He also has a slider, but he only uses it 11% of the time. Last year was Santana's first season in his whole career with 3500+ pitches. I don't always believe this is a huge determining factor, but it is a possible warning sign. He also lost some speed from his pitches in 2008, but it wasn't enough to be to concerned.

I don't target any pitchers who go in the first two rounds, as there is to much hitting talent to pass and pitchers are the most susceptible to injuries. This doesn't mean that a pitcher like Johan isn't worth an early pick, but now with his elbow problems you have to push him back to at least the end of the second round in value.

I'll leave the injury analysis to Corey, but in any draft I wouldn't take Johan until my third round pick at this point.