A quick note: There were far more hitters that reached 400 points than there were starters. Because of this, I’m relaxing the limit a bit, just like with catchers.
Something to bear in mind with this list: I’m not saying that every one of these players can/will score 400 points this year. But they have a high enough K/9 rate to earn 350+, so as long as they are given a rotation spot and can pitch enough innings, they bear monitoring. Some of these players’ spots in the rotation are not guaranteed, so watch them for the rest of the off-season to see what develops.
Starters who had a K/9 over 6.3 and only need higher IP
B. Morrow: 10.4 K/9; if starter, should reach 400
J. Cueto: 8.8 K/9; gopheritis only problem
A. Sanchez: 8.7 K/9; but IP likely won’t be high enough to top 400 points
G. Gonzalez: 8.7 K/9; just needs seasoning, but he’ll have points value in future
J. de la Rosa: 8.6 K/9; needs to control walks, but good second half to build off of
W. Rodriguez: 8.6 K/9, 282 pts in 137 IP = 370 in 180; a good sleeper pick
JA Happ: 8.4 K/9; IP likely to be restricted
S. Gallagher: 8.0 K/9; needs rotation spot
J. Johnson: 7.9 K/9, 194 pts in 87 IP = 400 in 180; with full season, he’s a lock
U. Jimenez: 7.8 K/9, 329 pts in 198 IP; only thing stopping his value is control/BB
Y. Petit: 7.8 K/9; rotation spot a concern
J. Maine: 7.8 K/9; injury makes more risky, but lowers ADP
S. Lewis: 7.6 K/9 in the minors; watch to see if he wins rotation spot
D. Purcey: 7.6 K/9; not likely to reach high enough IP, but a sleeper nonetheless
A. Miller: 7.5 K/9; with revamped delivery, could break through this year
M. Owings: 7.5 K/9; not as bad as surface stats indicate; if given chance, could be valuable
I. Snell: 7.4 K/9; talent is there, and it won’t cost much to get him
B. Arroyo: 7.3 K/9; undervalued, but steady aside from a few (really) bad games
S. Marshall: 7.1 K/9; needs rotation spot
J. Jurrjens: 6.6 K/9; rate got better in second half, a good sign
J. Reyes: 6.6 K/9; youth likely to keep him from high enough IP
H. Bailey: 6.5 K/9; starting to drop off people’s prospect lists, but could surprise
A. Galarraga: 6.4 K/9; on the border, could be a good sleeper
Overvalued: lower K/9 rate
G. Floyd: 6.3 K/9; made the cut, but barely, due to high W total; high HR allowed is scary
D. Lowe: 6.3 K/9; made the cut, but questionable road skills last few years could hurt in ATL
M. Buehrle: 5.8 K/9; valuable for his consistency and reliability, but not a high-point guy
J. Saunders: 4.7 K/9, 391 pts in 198 IP; don’t expect a repeat without higher K/9
M. Pelfrey: 4.9 K/9, 307 pts in 200 IP; needs to cut down on BB to have value
T. Wellemeyer: 6.3 K/9, 355 pts in 191 IP; on border, but elbow, high IP spike cause for concern
J. Guthrie: 5.7 K/9; 312 pts in 190IP; luck prevented hits; won’t repeat points even this value
K. Lohse: 5.4 K/9, 366 pts in 200 IP; high W total inflated value; track record says not repeatable
J. Blanton: 5.0 K/9; value is being on WS-winning roster, but not worth being on yours
B. Looper: 4.9 K/9; won’t score big without lucky W total, and even that’s a stretch
A. Laffey: 4.1 K/9; hyped as a prospect/sleeper, but without K/9 increase, not worth it
Saturday, February 7
Hip injuries: is it the new Oblique?
The last several years we've noticed a lot more injuries to the hip joint itself, or at least more attention is paid to them. According to my DL database, there were 3 in 2006, 10 in 2007, and 12 during the 2008 season and 5 in the off-season. This rise is likely due to multiple factors including: increased awareness on the part of the athlete, new techniques, and a little chance in there as well.
Hip injuries can be extremely debilitating to any athlete, especially one whose sport requires forceful loading of the joint while rotating. Baseball fits that in so many ways: throwing across your body charging in from third, the act of swinging a bat, pushing off the rubber, landing after your pitch, etc. Understanding what hip injuries are serious and which ones aren't is key to understanding whether or not a player will return.
Starting off with the injury you'll find most often at the hip (hip flexor strain), we can see that there are many muscles around the joint.
Hip flexor strains occur the same way as they do anywhere else in the body, too much force applied to the area. This can come from force produced by the muscle or from an external source like a collision or landing awkwardly. These injuries, depending on the severity, run the gamut of a few days off to a lengthy DL stay. If they go on the DL, you can safely assume that the severity is at least a high mild to low moderate strain. Some teams are more conservative with their players and may put them on the DL for a mild hip flexor strain though.
The next part is what confuses people because often words are interchanged when they mean different things. The cartilage of the hip is the cartilage that is on the top part of the femur and also at the point where the femur and hip meet. It helps, when acting with the labrum (which we'll cover next) to allow the hip joint to move and glide smoothly. If the cartilage wears away, this is where arthritis starts to set in. This is for the most part irreversible, although the newest surgical procedures are beginning to improve on these. It will be more time though before these procedures are to the point of being common.
The labrum of the hip is similar to the labrum of the shoulder except that it is much stronger and deeper than the shoulder joint. The labrum also strengthens the joint by causing a negative pressure when combined with the joint capsule and ligaments. The hip joint is geared toward strength and some mobility while the shoulder joint is geared towards mobility first and then strength. Severe traumatic hip injuries (dislocations) are relatively rare in baseball because of its strength, but acetabular labral tears (the term used to differentiate between the labrum in the shoulder) are becoming more common.
Acetabular labrum tears do not happen due to overuse as much in the shoulder but occur more when it gets pinched between the femur and the hip joint. This occurs when range of motion (ROM) becomes limited or calcifications such as bone spurs start forming. Eventually the labrum gets pinched, becomes torn, and never heals on it own.
Often these tears do not require surgery and can be treated instead with a course of rest, anti-inflammatory medicine, and therapy. This can be the case for a couple of weeks to a month or two. If surgery is needed, the surgeon goes in with a scope and cleans it up. The length of time differs for the exact location of the tear and what was done, but generally they are on crutches for 3-6 weeks. Traditional therapy follows with eventual return to play being in 2-6 months depending on the size and location of the tear as well as the exact procedure done.
More and more baseball players are being diagnosed with injuries to the actual joint of the hip. This is due to increased awareness and better MRI techniques. By knowing the time it takes to return to play, you can better plan your fantasy team or simply know when to buy tickets to see your favorite player again.
Hip injuries can be extremely debilitating to any athlete, especially one whose sport requires forceful loading of the joint while rotating. Baseball fits that in so many ways: throwing across your body charging in from third, the act of swinging a bat, pushing off the rubber, landing after your pitch, etc. Understanding what hip injuries are serious and which ones aren't is key to understanding whether or not a player will return.
Starting off with the injury you'll find most often at the hip (hip flexor strain), we can see that there are many muscles around the joint.
Hip flexor strains occur the same way as they do anywhere else in the body, too much force applied to the area. This can come from force produced by the muscle or from an external source like a collision or landing awkwardly. These injuries, depending on the severity, run the gamut of a few days off to a lengthy DL stay. If they go on the DL, you can safely assume that the severity is at least a high mild to low moderate strain. Some teams are more conservative with their players and may put them on the DL for a mild hip flexor strain though.
The next part is what confuses people because often words are interchanged when they mean different things. The cartilage of the hip is the cartilage that is on the top part of the femur and also at the point where the femur and hip meet. It helps, when acting with the labrum (which we'll cover next) to allow the hip joint to move and glide smoothly. If the cartilage wears away, this is where arthritis starts to set in. This is for the most part irreversible, although the newest surgical procedures are beginning to improve on these. It will be more time though before these procedures are to the point of being common.
The labrum of the hip is similar to the labrum of the shoulder except that it is much stronger and deeper than the shoulder joint. The labrum also strengthens the joint by causing a negative pressure when combined with the joint capsule and ligaments. The hip joint is geared toward strength and some mobility while the shoulder joint is geared towards mobility first and then strength. Severe traumatic hip injuries (dislocations) are relatively rare in baseball because of its strength, but acetabular labral tears (the term used to differentiate between the labrum in the shoulder) are becoming more common.
Acetabular labrum tears do not happen due to overuse as much in the shoulder but occur more when it gets pinched between the femur and the hip joint. This occurs when range of motion (ROM) becomes limited or calcifications such as bone spurs start forming. Eventually the labrum gets pinched, becomes torn, and never heals on it own.
Often these tears do not require surgery and can be treated instead with a course of rest, anti-inflammatory medicine, and therapy. This can be the case for a couple of weeks to a month or two. If surgery is needed, the surgeon goes in with a scope and cleans it up. The length of time differs for the exact location of the tear and what was done, but generally they are on crutches for 3-6 weeks. Traditional therapy follows with eventual return to play being in 2-6 months depending on the size and location of the tear as well as the exact procedure done.
More and more baseball players are being diagnosed with injuries to the actual joint of the hip. This is due to increased awareness and better MRI techniques. By knowing the time it takes to return to play, you can better plan your fantasy team or simply know when to buy tickets to see your favorite player again.
Friday, February 6
H2H Strategy: Quality SP or Two-start Pick-ups?
In points and H2H leagues, grabbing the two-start pitchers is a common strategy. When you realize how much risk there is to this strategy, however, you’ll see the value in drafting quality starters.
The “average SP” percentages (and the “good” and “bad” labels) are taken from Ron Shandler’s percentage of dominating (DOM%) and disaster (DIS%) information. Fantasy managers could plug in their own concept of good, bad, and neutral starts, but that wouldn’t change the outcome very much. For example, in a points league, one could generally consider a good start 12+ points, a neutral start 5-11 points, and a bad start as anything under 5 points. Then of course, there’s the really bad starts, which earn you negative points, but I’ll touch on those later.
Chances of Start Quality
Good SP: 50% good, 30% neutral, 20% bad
Average SP: 40% good, 35% neutral, 25% bad
Poor SP: 33% good, 33% neutral, 33% bad
Presumably all good SP will be constantly rostered, so managers who play the “2-start” game are picking from the average and poor categories. I’ve even seen managers grab the guys that are owned in under 10% of leagues (Brandon Backe comes to mind) just because they’re a two-start option. The math doesn’t support this strategy, though. Take a look at the odds.
Chances of Two-start Week
Using our broad categories, two starts in a week presents nine outcomes: GG, GN, GB, NG, NN, NB, BG, BN, BB. Let’s lump these into “good 2-start” (GG, GN, NG), “neutral 2-start” (GB, NN, BG), and “bad 2-start” (NB, BN, BB).
Good SP: 55% good, 29% neutral, 16% bad
Average SP: 44% good, 32% neutral, 24% bad
Poor SP: 33% good, 33% neutral, 33% bad
Bear in mind that the raw numbers don’t take into account the fact that a really bad start (one that earns you negative points) can sink your point total. In my own mind, I’d lump more of the neutral categories toward the “bad” end: any good start given is strongly offset by a bad start, especially a negative-point start. This is one reason Ron Shandler doubles the weight of DIS% when comparing it to DOM%. In my mind, any 2-start SP I pick up cannot have a bad start, or else it’s not worth the risk when compared to starting one of my own 1-start SP (or a closer). My preference would eliminate the neutral category. Therefore a “Good” week would become GG, GN, NG, and NN; and a “Bad” week would include any bad-start combo: GB, NB, BG, BN, BB.
Chances of Two-start Week, Polarized
Good SP: 64% good, 36% bad
Average SP: 56% good, 44% bad
Poor SP: 44% good, 56% bad
Summary
Whichever breakdown you prefer (with or without the “neutral” category), the numbers are startlingly in favor of good pitchers. Going with several 2-start options each week is more risky than many believe.
When it comes to H2H and points leagues, are you going to draft strong starters in the middle of the draft, or will you dally in the FA pool and roll the dice with the odds against you?
The “average SP” percentages (and the “good” and “bad” labels) are taken from Ron Shandler’s percentage of dominating (DOM%) and disaster (DIS%) information. Fantasy managers could plug in their own concept of good, bad, and neutral starts, but that wouldn’t change the outcome very much. For example, in a points league, one could generally consider a good start 12+ points, a neutral start 5-11 points, and a bad start as anything under 5 points. Then of course, there’s the really bad starts, which earn you negative points, but I’ll touch on those later.
Chances of Start Quality
Good SP: 50% good, 30% neutral, 20% bad
Average SP: 40% good, 35% neutral, 25% bad
Poor SP: 33% good, 33% neutral, 33% bad
Presumably all good SP will be constantly rostered, so managers who play the “2-start” game are picking from the average and poor categories. I’ve even seen managers grab the guys that are owned in under 10% of leagues (Brandon Backe comes to mind) just because they’re a two-start option. The math doesn’t support this strategy, though. Take a look at the odds.
Chances of Two-start Week
Using our broad categories, two starts in a week presents nine outcomes: GG, GN, GB, NG, NN, NB, BG, BN, BB. Let’s lump these into “good 2-start” (GG, GN, NG), “neutral 2-start” (GB, NN, BG), and “bad 2-start” (NB, BN, BB).
Good SP: 55% good, 29% neutral, 16% bad
Average SP: 44% good, 32% neutral, 24% bad
Poor SP: 33% good, 33% neutral, 33% bad
Bear in mind that the raw numbers don’t take into account the fact that a really bad start (one that earns you negative points) can sink your point total. In my own mind, I’d lump more of the neutral categories toward the “bad” end: any good start given is strongly offset by a bad start, especially a negative-point start. This is one reason Ron Shandler doubles the weight of DIS% when comparing it to DOM%. In my mind, any 2-start SP I pick up cannot have a bad start, or else it’s not worth the risk when compared to starting one of my own 1-start SP (or a closer). My preference would eliminate the neutral category. Therefore a “Good” week would become GG, GN, NG, and NN; and a “Bad” week would include any bad-start combo: GB, NB, BG, BN, BB.
Chances of Two-start Week, Polarized
Good SP: 64% good, 36% bad
Average SP: 56% good, 44% bad
Poor SP: 44% good, 56% bad
Summary
Whichever breakdown you prefer (with or without the “neutral” category), the numbers are startlingly in favor of good pitchers. Going with several 2-start options each week is more risky than many believe.
When it comes to H2H and points leagues, are you going to draft strong starters in the middle of the draft, or will you dally in the FA pool and roll the dice with the odds against you?
2/6/09 - Friday Rewind
Roto Savants Content Recap
The draft rankings for 2009 Fantasy Baseball drafts can be found here, and we have completed all of the positional rankings.
Top Fantasy Baseball Stories
- Check out today's Statistical Sleepers where we look at FIP to find some hidden talent.
- Kevin took an important look at H2H leagues and who should breakout or bust.
- Why you should Draft Matt Kemp instead of Carl Crawford.
- We also looked at David Price in Minor League Talents.
The draft rankings for 2009 Fantasy Baseball drafts can be found here, and we have completed all of the positional rankings.
Top Fantasy Baseball Stories
- Yes Matt Wieters is worth it even if he starts at AAA according to Tim Dierkes.
- Razzball did a great study on what factors increase injury risk for pitchers. Here are the pitchers who fit the danger range.
- The full insight on Ben Sheets elbow. It's not good news from Chris at Disabled List Informer.
- Corey's site FantasyPitchF/x.com got mentioned at BeyondtheBoxScore.com and DrivelineMechanics.com , Hopefully you have tried out the DL Tool.
Site Updates
- We are running our contest this year for the best story about a draft or league that is entertaining and informative. We will also have one for the winners of our RotoSavants League. The prizes are one year subscriptions to Baseball Prospectus.
- Follow on Twitter for up to the minute analysis and discussion @TroyPatterson
Thursday, February 5
Don't Believe The Hype: Jeff Francoeur
National writers and other "experts" tend to litter us with feel-good baseball stories. Players who've had terrible years are suddenly breakout candidates or chairty bounceback cases. Sometimes, you need to know the fact immediately and not get pulled into the love fest. As players get hyped up, we'll be there to knock them back to reality.
After reading this article, I'm concerned about an eventual Jeff Francoeur comeback special. Before Fox tries to buy any rights, let's look at this with a critical eye.
Do you know what Francoeur also did? He had his lowest ISO of his career (.120) a number that has steadily dropped since he burst on the scene in 2005. In four years, his isolated power is now HALF of what it started out as. Francoeur's only saving grace? His expected BABIP was 50 points over his actual (.277), so he actually had a little bit of bad luck to start out. Francoeur has historically kept his LD% fairly consistent, pushing around the high 19, low 20 mark, but he has yet to have a reliable BABIP, either overshooting it or underperforming by a solid .30 magnitude.
Unfortunately for you, Jeff, it's not like you were great at grinding out at bats before 2008 anyway. Your highest OBP in a season was .338, in a year you hit .293 on the season. Players that peak at a 6% walk rate don't often succeed unless they are quite adept at avoiding strikeouts (Ichiro 6.9 BB%, 7.9 K%), or have ridiculous power (Ryan Braun)
Unless your name is Ryan Braun and you're hitting 40+ bombs over the course of a full season, then no, you can't be too good with a .336 OBP. That was the fault of SI to jump on a guy's first 70 games and anoint him a superstar. Not like other papers have done similar things.
Over the next two months, we'll be targeting more players like this as they come down the fantasy pipeline, to make sure you don't make a similar mistake. Anybody who selected Hunter Pence early last year (or wasted a late-round keeper pick on him... sigh) will be excited.
After reading this article, I'm concerned about an eventual Jeff Francoeur comeback special. Before Fox tries to buy any rights, let's look at this with a critical eye.
Francoeur, however, batted just .245 after his three-day cameo in Double A, a marginal improvement over his .234 average before he was sent down. He finished the year at .239 with 11 home runs, both career lows, and the second-lowest on-base percentage (.294) and sixth-lowest OPS (.653) in the major leagues.
Do you know what Francoeur also did? He had his lowest ISO of his career (.120) a number that has steadily dropped since he burst on the scene in 2005. In four years, his isolated power is now HALF of what it started out as. Francoeur's only saving grace? His expected BABIP was 50 points over his actual (.277), so he actually had a little bit of bad luck to start out. Francoeur has historically kept his LD% fairly consistent, pushing around the high 19, low 20 mark, but he has yet to have a reliable BABIP, either overshooting it or underperforming by a solid .30 magnitude.
"Last year, I didn't enjoy going to the park as much," he said. "It was just a mental thing, one thing after another. I was trying new stances and it wasn't working. I was just grinding out at-bats and coming home frustrated."
Unfortunately for you, Jeff, it's not like you were great at grinding out at bats before 2008 anyway. Your highest OBP in a season was .338, in a year you hit .293 on the season. Players that peak at a 6% walk rate don't often succeed unless they are quite adept at avoiding strikeouts (Ichiro 6.9 BB%, 7.9 K%), or have ridiculous power (Ryan Braun)
It was a far cry from his 2005 debut, when he batted .300/.336./.549 in 70 games. The fateful cover of SI had called him "The Natural" and asked, "Can anyone be this good?"
Unless your name is Ryan Braun and you're hitting 40+ bombs over the course of a full season, then no, you can't be too good with a .336 OBP. That was the fault of SI to jump on a guy's first 70 games and anoint him a superstar. Not like other papers have done similar things.
As it turned out, even Francoeur was not that good. Although he had 29 home runs and 103 RBIs in his first full season in 2006, he posted an astonishingly low .293 on-base percentage, due mostly to drawing only 23 walks in 686 plate appearances. In 2007, his average rose by 33 points, to .293, but his power dropped to 19 home runs.Okay, to be honest,I'm a little shocked. Not as much gushing about a comeback as I would have thought. Regardless, this article serves a good purpose to us all. Many times you'll see people trying to pull comebacks out of nowhere, either with feel-good articles or pointless conjecture. It's easy to get caught up in the hype over a small sample size of good production and write off the overwhelming bad data.
Over the next two months, we'll be targeting more players like this as they come down the fantasy pipeline, to make sure you don't make a similar mistake. Anybody who selected Hunter Pence early last year (or wasted a late-round keeper pick on him... sigh) will be excited.
Fantasy and Sabermetrics for Beginners - Hitting Skills Part II
Each Thursday we will be covering different statistics that have very strong uses for fantasy. They are not stats that get used for ranking, but they can greatly affect your team. Some we already use on this site, and others we will discuss if they can be used for our analysis.
Part II
Last week we discussed hitting from the regards of walking and making contact. This time we will look into how the skills we studied from Part I effect a players BABIP, Average and OBP.
BABIP
Until recently many used (LD% + .120 = BABIP) to calculate an expected BABIP, but there has been much more work put into this recently and found some more variables to incorporate. Here is a study by Chris Dutton and Peter Bendix and you can see the variables they use to estimate BABIP. Looking through their research you can see the important factors to be a player who shows an elevated BABIP consistently. High LD%, good Speed score, high number of extra base hits, ability to hit to all fields, number of pitches, park factors and lefty hitters have an advantage as well.
Looking through this grouping you can see why young players often have elevated BABIP in their early careers. This is why looking for .300 hitters just by a BB% and K% like some sites suggest is not enough. I would suggest using previous seasons as the best judge since this expected BABIP is not yet being offered as a stat on any site. Just take into account a chance for deteriorating skills and any speed loss may be factors for a BABIP decrease.
Average and OBP
Once you address all these factors you can start to see what a true hitters skill is regarding getting on base. Although average is less important in real baseball it has a different value in fantasy. Average has the ability to increase a players RBI output as well, so it is still an important stat, but is greatly over valued.
OBP in fantasy is not a stat in most leagues, but as I have discussed before is much more important than most managers account for. OBP is a judge of the number of chances a player will have to steal a base, score a run and a higher OBP usually indicates a better eye for pitch selection.
Conclusion
So what should you take form these two reviews? Hitting is a diverse ability that cannot be simply addressed by rules like .300 hitters have a 80% contact rate and a 10% walk rate. Out of the 69 hitters in 2008 who reached those levels only 24% had a .300 average. If you account for luck and look at the 42 hitters who had those ratios and had 300 AB's it is only 33% with a .300 average.
There is no easy recipe for projecting a hitters batting average, but make sure your projections aren't based on over simplified analysis. If you really wanted to go with a simple analysis I would add a level for BABIP into the analysis using BB% and K%. Of the hitters with a BABIP of .300 and 300 AB's with the correct BB% and K% there were 53% had a BABIP of .308. BABIP plays to much of a factor to be ignored when evaluating a hitter for good average. After finding a list of hitters who maintain the K and BB levels look for hitters with elevated BABIP levels over their career.
Hitters Skill - Part I
Part II
Last week we discussed hitting from the regards of walking and making contact. This time we will look into how the skills we studied from Part I effect a players BABIP, Average and OBP.
BABIP
Until recently many used (LD% + .120 = BABIP) to calculate an expected BABIP, but there has been much more work put into this recently and found some more variables to incorporate. Here is a study by Chris Dutton and Peter Bendix and you can see the variables they use to estimate BABIP. Looking through their research you can see the important factors to be a player who shows an elevated BABIP consistently. High LD%, good Speed score, high number of extra base hits, ability to hit to all fields, number of pitches, park factors and lefty hitters have an advantage as well.
Looking through this grouping you can see why young players often have elevated BABIP in their early careers. This is why looking for .300 hitters just by a BB% and K% like some sites suggest is not enough. I would suggest using previous seasons as the best judge since this expected BABIP is not yet being offered as a stat on any site. Just take into account a chance for deteriorating skills and any speed loss may be factors for a BABIP decrease.
Average and OBP
Once you address all these factors you can start to see what a true hitters skill is regarding getting on base. Although average is less important in real baseball it has a different value in fantasy. Average has the ability to increase a players RBI output as well, so it is still an important stat, but is greatly over valued.
OBP in fantasy is not a stat in most leagues, but as I have discussed before is much more important than most managers account for. OBP is a judge of the number of chances a player will have to steal a base, score a run and a higher OBP usually indicates a better eye for pitch selection.
Conclusion
So what should you take form these two reviews? Hitting is a diverse ability that cannot be simply addressed by rules like .300 hitters have a 80% contact rate and a 10% walk rate. Out of the 69 hitters in 2008 who reached those levels only 24% had a .300 average. If you account for luck and look at the 42 hitters who had those ratios and had 300 AB's it is only 33% with a .300 average.
There is no easy recipe for projecting a hitters batting average, but make sure your projections aren't based on over simplified analysis. If you really wanted to go with a simple analysis I would add a level for BABIP into the analysis using BB% and K%. Of the hitters with a BABIP of .300 and 300 AB's with the correct BB% and K% there were 53% had a BABIP of .308. BABIP plays to much of a factor to be ignored when evaluating a hitter for good average. After finding a list of hitters who maintain the K and BB levels look for hitters with elevated BABIP levels over their career.
Hitters Skill - Part I
Player Profile at FantasyPros911.com
My new Player Profile is up and I would appreciate if you checked it out and left your thoughts on the page. Thanks to everyone here I had the most visited page on the free side in the first month of the site!
Fantasy and Sabermetrics article will be up later today as I finish my thoughts today.
Fantasy and Sabermetrics article will be up later today as I finish my thoughts today.
Wednesday, February 4
Draft This, Not That: Matt Kemp VS Carl Crawford
Every Wednesday, we’ll offer up comparable players (or stats or strategies or whatever), reveal our preference, and provide an analysis to support it.
Draft Matt Kemp, Not Carl Crawford
This week, I’m making a tougher decision between two young, five-category contributors. Any fantasy team would be really happy with either OF, but I’m choosing Matt Kemp over Carl Crawford.
The Reasons
Obviously, Crawford was injured last year, but even that doesn’t factor into my decision. Looking at Kemp’s 08 season, he put up a strong line: .290/93/18/76/35. C
rawford’s three-year average from 05–07 was solid: .307/94/15/79/51. Although Crawford’s SB is better than Kemp’s, what sells me on Kemp is the fact that he’s developing the power that Crawford was projected to have but hasn’t reached. Kemp’s slugging in 08 was .459, and he hit 18 HR, which is Crawford’s best season total. Crawford’s slugging from 05–07 is better than Kemp’s, but the numbers are inflated by triples, not home runs. In Ron Shandler’s PX score, Kemp easily has Crawford beat: Kemp had a 119 last year, and Crawford’s best in the last four years is 101.
Both players are young and will have many more elite years in the future. However, Kemp is 24, which gives him more time to develop further. Crawford might finally see that spike in power, but he’s nearing his peak, and Kemp’s ceiling is probably higher.
The final tie-breaker lies in ADP. In mock drafts right now, you can get Kemp an entire round later, on average. Considering Crawford will have to prove that he’s back on track, I’ll take the guarantee and bank on 20 HR and 35+ SB from Kemp.
Draft Matt Kemp, Not Carl Crawford
This week, I’m making a tougher decision between two young, five-category contributors. Any fantasy team would be really happy with either OF, but I’m choosing Matt Kemp over Carl Crawford.
The Reasons
Obviously, Crawford was injured last year, but even that doesn’t factor into my decision. Looking at Kemp’s 08 season, he put up a strong line: .290/93/18/76/35. C
rawford’s three-year average from 05–07 was solid: .307/94/15/79/51. Although Crawford’s SB is better than Kemp’s, what sells me on Kemp is the fact that he’s developing the power that Crawford was projected to have but hasn’t reached. Kemp’s slugging in 08 was .459, and he hit 18 HR, which is Crawford’s best season total. Crawford’s slugging from 05–07 is better than Kemp’s, but the numbers are inflated by triples, not home runs. In Ron Shandler’s PX score, Kemp easily has Crawford beat: Kemp had a 119 last year, and Crawford’s best in the last four years is 101.Both players are young and will have many more elite years in the future. However, Kemp is 24, which gives him more time to develop further. Crawford might finally see that spike in power, but he’s nearing his peak, and Kemp’s ceiling is probably higher.
The final tie-breaker lies in ADP. In mock drafts right now, you can get Kemp an entire round later, on average. Considering Crawford will have to prove that he’s back on track, I’ll take the guarantee and bank on 20 HR and 35+ SB from Kemp.
Tuesday, February 3
Improved Pitch Sequencing With Ted Lilly
Josh Kalk looks at the benefit of throwing high fastballs the pitch before a curveball with a higher arc. The change in deceptiveness is shown in some great Pitch F/x data.
Minor League Talents - David Price
This as a weekly article running every Tuesday here at Roto Savants. I have gotten some questions about players, but if you have minor league drafts and want someone reviewed, let me know and I will put them at the top of the list.
David Price - SP - Tampa Bay Rays
Injury and Health
Price had a muscle strain in his elbow in 2008 that delayed his debut in a pro game. It was reported as a light strain and he was shut down for a period. This was not an extreme case, but it should be noted when considering Price. He totaled 123.2 IP in 2008, so I would expect a 150 IP limit placed on Price.
Skill Set
Price has great skills, but sometimes I think he is overvalued because of his polish. He is ready to face the majors, but he is not going to dominate right away. His strikeouts project to be around 7 per 9 innings and a BB/9 around 3. These are good and he has the skill to be over 2.50 K/BB, but it might take some time.
His fastball is in the low 90's and he has a a slider with great break. His changeup on the other hand is good, but has been known to be tipped by a change in arm angle. He needs to improve this if he wants to be successful as a starter. Looking at his Pitch F/x data he didn't throw any changeups as a reliever in the playoffs and went with just a fastball, cutter and slider.
Major League ETA
David Price is almost a sure thing to start the season in the majors, but there is one hold up in Jeff Neimann who has no options left. The Rays will try to move him, but if they can't they might have to have Price spend some time in the pen. It shouldn't be for long as Price is going to start for the majority of 2009, but it might help him keep his innings limited.
Conclusion and Advice
David Price has a current ADP of the 12th round, which is a good spot to take him. My last concern is Baseball Prospectus who has no confidence in 2009. They give him a 77% chance of collapse and only a 1% shot at a breakout. I still like him, but just keep his limitations in mind when drafting Price.
David Price - SP - Tampa Bay Rays
Injury and Health
Price had a muscle strain in his elbow in 2008 that delayed his debut in a pro game. It was reported as a light strain and he was shut down for a period. This was not an extreme case, but it should be noted when considering Price. He totaled 123.2 IP in 2008, so I would expect a 150 IP limit placed on Price.
Skill Set
Price has great skills, but sometimes I think he is overvalued because of his polish. He is ready to face the majors, but he is not going to dominate right away. His strikeouts project to be around 7 per 9 innings and a BB/9 around 3. These are good and he has the skill to be over 2.50 K/BB, but it might take some time.
His fastball is in the low 90's and he has a a slider with great break. His changeup on the other hand is good, but has been known to be tipped by a change in arm angle. He needs to improve this if he wants to be successful as a starter. Looking at his Pitch F/x data he didn't throw any changeups as a reliever in the playoffs and went with just a fastball, cutter and slider.Major League ETA
David Price is almost a sure thing to start the season in the majors, but there is one hold up in Jeff Neimann who has no options left. The Rays will try to move him, but if they can't they might have to have Price spend some time in the pen. It shouldn't be for long as Price is going to start for the majority of 2009, but it might help him keep his innings limited.
Conclusion and Advice
David Price has a current ADP of the 12th round, which is a good spot to take him. My last concern is Baseball Prospectus who has no confidence in 2009. They give him a 77% chance of collapse and only a 1% shot at a breakout. I still like him, but just keep his limitations in mind when drafting Price.
Monday, February 2
Don't Target Average in Drafts
I got some comments on my team for the Battle of the Fantasy Gods league that I might be to week on average, but this brought up a topic that I feel very strongly about. When looking at average, I feel it should be given a balance and not used too strongly in evaluation. I do like players who supply a good average, and early in drafts I target players like Pujols and Utley, who supply my team with a good average, but because it is one of the most unpredictable categories, I find drafting for average to be very dangerous.
I took several very damaging players to my average in this league: Giambi, Napoli, Gomez and Reynolds. They all have categories that they supply in very well though. I contend that drafting a Giambi or Reynolds is no worse than drafting a closer in round 5-7. Closers supply in only one category, but the hitters can supply power and often have good R and RBI totals. Napoli, Gomez and Reynolds also supply some amount of speed. I am not suggesting you punt the category, but don't hold it as a greater negative than, say, a one- or two-category speedster.
Here is a standings of the league based on CBS projections for 2009 batting average. As you can see I am targeted for 11th place in average, but notice I am only behind first place by .0074. That is a 50-hit difference if every hitter totalled 500 AB. Does drafting a better hitter for average with less power assure any team of those 50 needed hits? Given that BABIP can fluctuate wildly, do you really want to overvalue a category held more by luck than the others?
Offensively I am ranked 2nd in HR, 1st in R and RBI, and 6th in SB. I also have some difference of opinion with some of the projections, including Pablo Sandoval, who is projected around .280. My projections call for Sandoval at .300. Using this current projections, I am ranked first in offense, and with some good luck and pickups in season, I could gain more points in average.
My pitching does need help at strikeouts, but we can discuss that next week.
I took several very damaging players to my average in this league: Giambi, Napoli, Gomez and Reynolds. They all have categories that they supply in very well though. I contend that drafting a Giambi or Reynolds is no worse than drafting a closer in round 5-7. Closers supply in only one category, but the hitters can supply power and often have good R and RBI totals. Napoli, Gomez and Reynolds also supply some amount of speed. I am not suggesting you punt the category, but don't hold it as a greater negative than, say, a one- or two-category speedster.
Here is a standings of the league based on CBS projections for 2009 batting average. As you can see I am targeted for 11th place in average, but notice I am only behind first place by .0074. That is a 50-hit difference if every hitter totalled 500 AB. Does drafting a better hitter for average with less power assure any team of those 50 needed hits? Given that BABIP can fluctuate wildly, do you really want to overvalue a category held more by luck than the others?
Offensively I am ranked 2nd in HR, 1st in R and RBI, and 6th in SB. I also have some difference of opinion with some of the projections, including Pablo Sandoval, who is projected around .280. My projections call for Sandoval at .300. Using this current projections, I am ranked first in offense, and with some good luck and pickups in season, I could gain more points in average.
My pitching does need help at strikeouts, but we can discuss that next week.
Sunday, February 1
Points Leagues: Hitter Busts and Breakouts
Computer problems postponed the pitchers until about Tuesday, but the hitters are ready to go.
This is your ultimate points league cheat sheet. This is broken into two lists: 1) guys who could be underrated and could reach 400 points given playing time or good health, 2) guys who are overrated and are not worth the pick. You can find the information and reasoning here. And don't forget to check out my reference sheet for consistent players, who deserve a bump up in value.
Guys who slugged .420 and didn’t get enough AB to earn 400 points
C (pts total lowered slightly)
P. Sandoval: .490 SLG, 117 pts in 145 AB = 444 pts in 550 AB; mult. position eligibility
M. Napoli: .586 SLG, 237 pts in 227 AB = 470 in 450
C. Iannetta: .505 SLG, 307 pts in 333 AB = 415 in 450
R. Doumit: .501 SLG, 359 pts in 451 AB = 398 in 500
C. Snyder: .452 SLG, 271 pts in 334 AB = 365 in 450; watch for Montero trade
1B
P. Konerko: .438 SLG, 348 pts in 438 AB; 2nd half SLG of .514; bounce-back = 400+
A. LaRoche: .500 SLG, 393 pts in 492 AB; already near 400, but ADP low; sleeper
C. Davis: .549 SLG, 245 pts in 295 AB = 457 pts in 550 AB
T. Ishikawa: .432 SLG, 65 pts in 95 AB; good chance of 350+ pts in rookie season
R. Shealy: .603 SLG, 72 pts in 73 AB; with playing time, good fantasy bench sleeper
2B
M. DeRosa: .481 SLG, 470 pts in 505 AB; even if no repeat, low ADP; mult. position
O. Hudson: .460 SLG, 296 pts in 407 AB = 400 pts in 550 AB
K. Matsui: .429 SLG, 297 pts in 375 AB = 435 in 550
C. Barmes: .468 SLG, 281 pts in 393 AB = 393 in 550
R. Cano: .468 career SLG, so 2009 rebound = 400+ pts
3B
A. Gordon: .432 SLG, 372 pts in 493 AB = 415 pts in 550 AB; uptick in power = 450+
T. Wigginton: .526 SLG, 318 pts in 386 AB = 453 in 550; mult. position eligible
I. Stewart: .455 SLG, 186 pts in 266 AB = 385 in 550; mult. position; just needs AB
R. Branyan: .583 SLG, 121 pts in 132 AB; watch PT; SEA’s 1B, OF holes could make sleeper
G. Dobbs: .491 SLG, 178 pts in 226 AB; playing time needed, but power, points there
SS
M. Aviles: .480 SLG, 324 in 419 AB = 425 in 550 AB
T. Tulowitzki: 2nd half SLG = .475; full AB in 2009 means 400+ pts
J. Peralta: .473 SLG, 473 pts in 605 AB; still flying under radar, ADP 40 lower than Jeter’s
OF
N. Cruz: .609 SLG, 124 pts in 115 AB = 593 pts in 550 AB; known “sleeper,” but worth it
J. Werth: .498 SLG, 388 pts in 418 AB = 511 in 550; HR-SB sleeper
V. Wells: .497 SLG, 368 pts in 427 AB = 474 in 550; over years, ADP drop; now worth it
F. Lewis: .440 SLG, 351 pts in 468 AB = 413 in 550; extra-base hits (11 3B) huge help
S. Choo: .549 SLG, 323 pts in 317 AB = 560 in 550
J. Willingham: .470 SLG, 295 pts in 351 AB = 462 in 550; WAS means more AB
D. Span: .432 SLG, 320 pts in 347 AB = 507 in 550; extra-base hits help his pts value
C. Dickerson: .608 SLG, 105 pts in 102 AB; even if SLG drops to 08 minor level = 400+ pts
C. Maybin: .563 SLG; .456 SLG in 08 minors; given AB, 400 points are a lock
J. Kubel: .471 SLG, 370 pts in 463 AB = 440 in 550; just needs full PT
N. Schierholtz: .493 SLG, 55 pts in 75 AB = 403 in 550; SF means good bet for PT
J. Upton: .464 SLG, 254 pts in 356 AB = 392 in 550; power there, and better AVG = 400+
L. Scott: .473 SLG, 364 pts in 474 AB = 422 in 550
R. Church: .439 SLG, 238 pts in 319 AB = 410 in 550; with clear head, 350+ a lock
Daniel Murphy: .465 SLG, 339 pts in 415 AB = 450 in 550; needs a position, and a big glove
A. Lind: .439 SLG, 223 pts in 326 AB = 376 in 550; longer shot for 09, but look out in 2010
T. Snider: .466 SLG, 49 pts in 73 AB; not likely here yet in 09, but a keeper pick
Overrated: didn’t earn 400 pts and/or SLG under .420
C
AJ Pierzinski: .417 SLG, 342 pts in 533 AB; OK, but not going to get better
D. Navarro: .408 SLG, 279 pts in 427 AB; AVG hitter better for Roto, not pts leagues
R. Hernandez: .407 SLG, 308 pts in 462 AB; despite 15 HR, not good point value
K. Suzuki: .370 SLG, 313 pts in 530 AB; power not here yet; non-keepers pass in 09
1B
C. Kotchman: .410 SLG, 382 pts in 525 AB; risky unless develops higher AVG or SLG
M. Jacobs: .513 SLG, but with bad AVG, K, BB, even 30+ HR didn’t reach 400 pts
R. Garko: .404 SLG, 368 pts in 495 AB; loss of playing time (V-Mart at 1B?) = no chance at 400
L. Overbay: .419 SLG, 390 pts in 544 AB; without 06 AVG, not worth it anymore
B. Butler: .400 SLG, high groundball % in 2008; unless power spikes, not worth it in 2009
2B
H. Kendrick: .421 SLG, 228 pts in 340 AB = 369 pts in 550 AB; no pop, and AVG not enough
P. Polanco: .417 SLG, 422 pts; loss of AB or AVG drops below 400 pts
A. Iwamura: .380 SLG, only 395 pts in 627 AB
3B
C. Figgins: .318 SLG, 318 pts in 453 AB; as shown in 08, loss of AB (SB) = low pts
P. Feliz: .402 SLG; low AVG, SLG = no fantasy value
B. Hall: .396 SLG; low AVG, SLG = no fantasy value
SS
C. Guzman: .440 SLG, but lots of 1B, and only 393 pts; loss of AVG or AB reduces pts
M. Tejada: .415 SLG; high AB keeping above 400 pts
D. Jeter: .408 SLG; high AB, NYY offense keeping above 400 pts
M. Young: .402 SLG; high AB, TEX offense keeping above 400 pts
Y. Escobar: .401 SLG, 369 pts in 514 AB; good real-world MI, but only OK for pts league
R. Theriot: .359 SLG, 409 pts; loss of AB or SB drops him below 400
OF
I. Suzuki: .386 SLG; singles and SB is his thing; leg injury would destroy value
J. Ellsbury: .392 SLG; see Ichiro, Figgins
D. Young: .405 SLG, 394 pts in 575 AB; AVG likely to drop in 09, not enough power (yet)
C. Crisp: 407 SLG, 282 pts in 361 AB = 430 pts in 550 AB; but 08 was in BOS lineup
J. Francoeur: .359 SLG, 348 pts in 599 AB; needs AVG, power to return, and quick
J. Hermida: .406 SLG, 336 pts in 502 AB; see Francoeur
A. Rowand: .410 SLG, 347 pts in 549 AB; SF’s lack of offense not his only problem
H. Matsui: .424 SLG, 248 pts in 337 AB = 405 in 550; but knee hurt power, and SLG on decline
M. Cuddyer: .370 SLG, 177 pts in 249 AB; 06 is outlier, and PT not guaranteed
Adam Jones: .400 SLG, 302 pts in 477 AB; talented, but not here yet, esp. in pts league
This is your ultimate points league cheat sheet. This is broken into two lists: 1) guys who could be underrated and could reach 400 points given playing time or good health, 2) guys who are overrated and are not worth the pick. You can find the information and reasoning here. And don't forget to check out my reference sheet for consistent players, who deserve a bump up in value.
Guys who slugged .420 and didn’t get enough AB to earn 400 points
C (pts total lowered slightly)
P. Sandoval: .490 SLG, 117 pts in 145 AB = 444 pts in 550 AB; mult. position eligibility
M. Napoli: .586 SLG, 237 pts in 227 AB = 470 in 450
C. Iannetta: .505 SLG, 307 pts in 333 AB = 415 in 450
R. Doumit: .501 SLG, 359 pts in 451 AB = 398 in 500
C. Snyder: .452 SLG, 271 pts in 334 AB = 365 in 450; watch for Montero trade
1B
P. Konerko: .438 SLG, 348 pts in 438 AB; 2nd half SLG of .514; bounce-back = 400+
A. LaRoche: .500 SLG, 393 pts in 492 AB; already near 400, but ADP low; sleeper
C. Davis: .549 SLG, 245 pts in 295 AB = 457 pts in 550 AB
T. Ishikawa: .432 SLG, 65 pts in 95 AB; good chance of 350+ pts in rookie season
R. Shealy: .603 SLG, 72 pts in 73 AB; with playing time, good fantasy bench sleeper
2B
M. DeRosa: .481 SLG, 470 pts in 505 AB; even if no repeat, low ADP; mult. position
O. Hudson: .460 SLG, 296 pts in 407 AB = 400 pts in 550 AB
K. Matsui: .429 SLG, 297 pts in 375 AB = 435 in 550
C. Barmes: .468 SLG, 281 pts in 393 AB = 393 in 550
R. Cano: .468 career SLG, so 2009 rebound = 400+ pts
3B
A. Gordon: .432 SLG, 372 pts in 493 AB = 415 pts in 550 AB; uptick in power = 450+
T. Wigginton: .526 SLG, 318 pts in 386 AB = 453 in 550; mult. position eligible
I. Stewart: .455 SLG, 186 pts in 266 AB = 385 in 550; mult. position; just needs AB
R. Branyan: .583 SLG, 121 pts in 132 AB; watch PT; SEA’s 1B, OF holes could make sleeper
G. Dobbs: .491 SLG, 178 pts in 226 AB; playing time needed, but power, points there
SS
M. Aviles: .480 SLG, 324 in 419 AB = 425 in 550 AB
T. Tulowitzki: 2nd half SLG = .475; full AB in 2009 means 400+ pts
J. Peralta: .473 SLG, 473 pts in 605 AB; still flying under radar, ADP 40 lower than Jeter’s
OF
N. Cruz: .609 SLG, 124 pts in 115 AB = 593 pts in 550 AB; known “sleeper,” but worth it
J. Werth: .498 SLG, 388 pts in 418 AB = 511 in 550; HR-SB sleeper
V. Wells: .497 SLG, 368 pts in 427 AB = 474 in 550; over years, ADP drop; now worth it
F. Lewis: .440 SLG, 351 pts in 468 AB = 413 in 550; extra-base hits (11 3B) huge help
S. Choo: .549 SLG, 323 pts in 317 AB = 560 in 550
J. Willingham: .470 SLG, 295 pts in 351 AB = 462 in 550; WAS means more AB
D. Span: .432 SLG, 320 pts in 347 AB = 507 in 550; extra-base hits help his pts value
C. Dickerson: .608 SLG, 105 pts in 102 AB; even if SLG drops to 08 minor level = 400+ pts
C. Maybin: .563 SLG; .456 SLG in 08 minors; given AB, 400 points are a lock
J. Kubel: .471 SLG, 370 pts in 463 AB = 440 in 550; just needs full PT
N. Schierholtz: .493 SLG, 55 pts in 75 AB = 403 in 550; SF means good bet for PT
J. Upton: .464 SLG, 254 pts in 356 AB = 392 in 550; power there, and better AVG = 400+
L. Scott: .473 SLG, 364 pts in 474 AB = 422 in 550
R. Church: .439 SLG, 238 pts in 319 AB = 410 in 550; with clear head, 350+ a lock
Daniel Murphy: .465 SLG, 339 pts in 415 AB = 450 in 550; needs a position, and a big glove
A. Lind: .439 SLG, 223 pts in 326 AB = 376 in 550; longer shot for 09, but look out in 2010
T. Snider: .466 SLG, 49 pts in 73 AB; not likely here yet in 09, but a keeper pick
Overrated: didn’t earn 400 pts and/or SLG under .420
C
AJ Pierzinski: .417 SLG, 342 pts in 533 AB; OK, but not going to get better
D. Navarro: .408 SLG, 279 pts in 427 AB; AVG hitter better for Roto, not pts leagues
R. Hernandez: .407 SLG, 308 pts in 462 AB; despite 15 HR, not good point value
K. Suzuki: .370 SLG, 313 pts in 530 AB; power not here yet; non-keepers pass in 09
1B
C. Kotchman: .410 SLG, 382 pts in 525 AB; risky unless develops higher AVG or SLG
M. Jacobs: .513 SLG, but with bad AVG, K, BB, even 30+ HR didn’t reach 400 pts
R. Garko: .404 SLG, 368 pts in 495 AB; loss of playing time (V-Mart at 1B?) = no chance at 400
L. Overbay: .419 SLG, 390 pts in 544 AB; without 06 AVG, not worth it anymore
B. Butler: .400 SLG, high groundball % in 2008; unless power spikes, not worth it in 2009
2B
H. Kendrick: .421 SLG, 228 pts in 340 AB = 369 pts in 550 AB; no pop, and AVG not enough
P. Polanco: .417 SLG, 422 pts; loss of AB or AVG drops below 400 pts
A. Iwamura: .380 SLG, only 395 pts in 627 AB
3B
C. Figgins: .318 SLG, 318 pts in 453 AB; as shown in 08, loss of AB (SB) = low pts
P. Feliz: .402 SLG; low AVG, SLG = no fantasy value
B. Hall: .396 SLG; low AVG, SLG = no fantasy value
SS
C. Guzman: .440 SLG, but lots of 1B, and only 393 pts; loss of AVG or AB reduces pts
M. Tejada: .415 SLG; high AB keeping above 400 pts
D. Jeter: .408 SLG; high AB, NYY offense keeping above 400 pts
M. Young: .402 SLG; high AB, TEX offense keeping above 400 pts
Y. Escobar: .401 SLG, 369 pts in 514 AB; good real-world MI, but only OK for pts league
R. Theriot: .359 SLG, 409 pts; loss of AB or SB drops him below 400
OF
I. Suzuki: .386 SLG; singles and SB is his thing; leg injury would destroy value
J. Ellsbury: .392 SLG; see Ichiro, Figgins
D. Young: .405 SLG, 394 pts in 575 AB; AVG likely to drop in 09, not enough power (yet)
C. Crisp: 407 SLG, 282 pts in 361 AB = 430 pts in 550 AB; but 08 was in BOS lineup
J. Francoeur: .359 SLG, 348 pts in 599 AB; needs AVG, power to return, and quick
J. Hermida: .406 SLG, 336 pts in 502 AB; see Francoeur
A. Rowand: .410 SLG, 347 pts in 549 AB; SF’s lack of offense not his only problem
H. Matsui: .424 SLG, 248 pts in 337 AB = 405 in 550; but knee hurt power, and SLG on decline
M. Cuddyer: .370 SLG, 177 pts in 249 AB; 06 is outlier, and PT not guaranteed
Adam Jones: .400 SLG, 302 pts in 477 AB; talented, but not here yet, esp. in pts league
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