Sleepers Quickly Becoming Overrated

Every year players start out as sleepers, but by April they have nowhere to go but down. There have been names that are already getting so much hype this year that we can see by the time you draft they will be less of a sleeper.

Nelson Cruz - OF - Texas Rangers
I have written how much I like Cruz. He is a potential five-category player, with average being his one weakness. He has already been picked as the opening day cleanup hitter, and he also has surprising speed for someone known more for his power potential. He has now been covered by plenty of sites: Roto Authority, Fangraphs and RotoProfessor.

This is the type of player who is currently going in round 16, but by opening day will be 3-4 rounds earlier with all the hype, and he will no longer be a great value. In the case of Nelson Cruz, a selection in the 16th or later rounds would be a great pick, but don't set your sights on him so much that you feel the need to pick him anywhere above the 13th round.

Other Sleepers becoming overhyped: Matt Wieters, Pablo Sandoval and Brandon Morrow (as a starter or closer)

This One is for Real

The Battle of the Fantasy Gods draft took place last night at MockDraftCentral. I will go further into the results later, but here is my roster.

Pos	Name		Team	Pick
C	Russell Martin		LA	R5 P4
C	Mike Napoli		ANA	R14 P9
1B	Albert Pujols		STL	R1 P4
1B	Pablo Sandoval		SF	R18 P9
1B	Jason Giambi		NYY	R19 P4
2B	Chase Utley		PHI	R2 P9
2B	Mark DeRosa		CLE	R15 P4
SS	Jhonny Peralta		CLE	R8 P9
3B	Mark Reynolds		ARI	R17 P4
OF	Carlos Beltran		NYM	R3 P4
OF	Bobby Abreu		NYY	R6 P9
OF	Raul Ibanez		PHI	R11 P4
OF	Lastings Milledge		WAS	R12 P9
OF	Carlos Gomez		MIN	R21 P4
SP	Brandon Webb		ARI	R4 P9
SP	James Shields		TB	R7 P4
SP	Ben Sheets		MIL	R10 P9
SP	Aaron Harang		CIN	R16 P9
SP	Andrew Sonnanstine		TB	R20 P9
SP	Hiroki Kuroda		LA	R23 P4
RP	Bobby Jenks		CHW	R9 P4
RP	Matt Capps		PIT	R13 P4
RP	Brad Ziegler		OAK	R22 P9

I missed out on Closers late, but that is always an easy fix. I really like this roster and had some players slip to me in the early rounds. We have no bench so injuries are a concern, but we have 2 DL spots and I can fill in accordingly.

Let me know what you think of my roster in the comments. You can see the other teams here. The league page is at BattleoftheFantasyGods.com.

Minor League Talents - Colby Rasmus

I haven't done too much on the young players here, and I am going to run this as a weekly article running every Tuesday here at Roto Savants. I have already gotten some questions about players, but if you have minor league drafts and want someone reviewed, let me know and I will put them at the top of the list.

Colby Rasmus - OF - St Louis Cardinals
Colby took a step back in 2008 and was injured for part of the year. He only played 90 games but had some good signs along with the bad. Much of his poor year was based on a bad month and then the injury, but let's see what to expect in 2009.

Injury and Health
He had his first major injury in the pros, but it was only a Grade 1 sprain of the MCL and should not have any lingering effects this season. This does raise some concern, however, as it happened during a swing and could cause him to change his swing, but he should be able to return to his true talent.

Skill Set
Colby strikes out too much, but he walks plenty and should be a huge value in fantasy and real baseball. His average has never been much too look at, but he should maintain a .275 average in the majors.

His power was down in 2008, but it seemed that it improved as the season went and he adjusted to AAA. He had a SLG of .535 in June, but July was cut short by the injury. He has shown 30-homer power and should be good for at least 20 in a full season.

Rasmus kept his speed despite the injury and has 20-steal speed in a full season. This would be something to watch in Spring Training, as well as an ability to make solid contact. He also needs to show he's healthy.

Major League ETA
Rasmus should have been in the majors already, but his slow start kept him in the minors until the injury. He is a much better player than Skip Shumaker and should be on the roster to start 2009. GM John Mozieliak seems to want him to break camp with the team this year, which could be a strong influence. I don't know if I truly buy this year, but I don't think he'll still be in the minor leagues come May.

Conclusion and Advice
Rasmus makes a great late-round pick. He might not make the end of the draft, but he should be a very late pick. With enough games, you're looking at a 20/20 late in the draft who has the ability to get on base and score runs, but he won't have a good fantasy average and will probably have low RBI totals. If he brings back his 2007 power, then you might do even better.

I wouldn't pick him if you have other rookies who are fighting for a job, or if you have many injury concerns, but if you have a largely healthy roster, then he makes a great pick for 2009.

The Real Deal 1/5/09 @ MLB Front Office

My new The Real Deal is up this week, and I hope everyone will check it out. Players covered this week: Derrick Turnbow, Mark DeRosa, Luis Gonzalez, Claudio Vargas and Luis Vizcaino.

I also had my Statistical Sleepers article on BABIP last Friday at FantasyPros911. Please check it out.

1/5/09 - Email Bag

I would like to make this a weekly segment with 1-2 questions. If you have questions, please send them through the contact link above or email TroyPatterson@rotosavants.com

This week I got an email from James, who had the following question:

I'm in a 5x5 NL Only keeper League w/ three Minor League slots. The team is in great shape for 2009 and I'm working on building a powerhouse Minor League (ML) Roster to support the draft and trades. Primary goal is to get top prospects that have jobs on opening day or very close.
Currently I have F. Martinez, C. Maybin, C. Rasmus plus #2 and #3 pick in ML Draft (can use one and trade one or trade both for #1 pick potentially).
Maybin stays as he should be starting CF , Martinez gets traded to another team for 2010 draft pick(s) as he is Sept Call-up or 2010 starter and I can get a better 2009 player in this year's draft(imho).
Question is when do you see Rasmus getting a job in that crowded OF and who would you draft w/ #1,#2,#3? If I keep Rasmus then I'm thinking Carlos Gonzalez (gets a job out of Spring Training ?) , Tommy Hanson (stud and only $5 salary w/ our rules) , McDonald (decent also $5) , Wallace (?)

In regard to Colby Rasmus, I believe he will be up soon if not right away. The GM has stated he would like Rasmus to make the team on opening day. This might be too optimistic, but he will have a 2009 impact with Skip Schumaker being a poor option and Rick Ankiel having one or two injuries each season. Ankiel could be moved; there is little chance of signing him before he leaves as a free agent because Boras is his agent.

As for the options in a draft I would have to choose the first two as clear-cut options if available. Carlos Gonzalez is another player who is better in fantasy, and this is why Billy Beane moved him. His OBP is poor and so is his average, but he is a potential 20/15 guy in his first few seasons.

Tommy Hanson really built a name for himself with a great showing in the Arizona Fall League this season. Since the Braves missed out on Jake Peavy and AJ Burnett, they will look at him earlier if not right away. His AA numbers in 2008 look ready, and perhaps he'll have a short stay at AAA this year, but breaking camp with the team would not surprise me.

Please make any suggestions for this question in the comments.

Check out This new Site

Although not fully functioning yet Corey has launched his new project FantasyPitchFx.com. This will replace his former site Fantasy Baseball Strategy. The new site will have analysis and 2 great databases. The first will be a Pitch F/x database searching by any player for a full area of graphs and data. The other will be a complete DL database for easier searching of player injuries for past and present.

Make sure to bookmark the site and I will update once each database goes live.

1/2/09 - Friday Rewind

FantasyPros911 opened yesterday and I had my first Player Profile yesterday and today's Weekly Statistical Sleeper article.

Roto Savants Content Recap

• Do the 2009 Yankees match the offense of 2004?
• How much is a 5th round closer really worth?
• Chris Young is a potential five category player, but will he make it?
• The best Relievers without saves in 2008.
  

2009 Draft Rankings
The draft rankings can be found here and we have completed all of the rankings. Next up we will have our top sleeper and bust lists.

Top Fantasy Baseball Stories

• Peter Bendix at Fangraphs looked at Paul Konerko's prospects.
• Tim Dierkes at RotoAuthority started his What it Takes to Win Series again.
• Eric Stashin at RotoProfessor had a Quick Hit on Kevin Slowey although I disagreed in the comments.

Site Updates

• Please check out our Facebook page and Join. Also our Networked blog on Facebook here.
  
• We have a new Contact link on the top menu which is a Contact Form for easier submission of questions or comments.
• You can add our Feed and get all of our posts straight to your RSS reader. (Click here if not familiar with RSS feeds)

The day is here...

Fantasy Pros 911 has gone live with the free and pay sites. You can check out my first article at the following link. This was my first Player profile article and did a review of Tim Lincecum.