Two Guys Walk Into a Bar...

Okay so two guys walk into a bar. One pitched in the playoffs and starts talking about how much he's going to make in free agency this offseason. One talks about how he hopes to turn the corner next year and be an ace like starter. The bartender asks for their last 3 years stats (oh, just play along with me) so both say their stats. The playoff starter says he went 42-22 with a 3.48 ERA, 1.23 WHIP with 448 strikeouts in the last 3 years. The other player says he went 27-34 with a 4.15 ERA, 1.29 WHIP with 353 strikeouts in the same span.

The bartender, not the biggest baseball fan in the world, still can't tell who they are. So he asks "how many home runs did you give up over those three years?" The playoff starter says "61" while the other player says "82." Then the bartender asks the players, "didn't you lead the majors in home runs allowed this year?"

One of them says, "yes."

Okay so yes when I read Steve Melewski from MASNSports.com say that John Lackey and Jeremy Guthrie are basically the same guy. He uses the last two years of stats combined to make his argument, even though Guthrie has been an Oriole pitcher for 3 years. I stretched it out to three years to get a better sample. So compare Guthrie to this player:

Player X (3 years): 38-34 record, 4.24 ERA, 1.37 WHIP and 494 strikeouts

Who is that you ask? That's Lackey from his age-24 to 26 seasons, in other words, his first 3 full pro seasons. Guthrie might be a little better than Lackey's first 3 years but he is entering his age-31 season so he will have much less time to turn it around.

And yes, Lackey and Guthrie are both entering their age-31 seasons but:

• Lackey has had 4 seasons of over 200 IP. Guthrie has one.
• Lackey has logged 1500 IP over his major league career. Guthrie has 603.
• Guthrie led the majors in Home Runs allowed this season with 35. Lackey did just under half that (17).
• The last time Lackey had a WHIP over 1.40 was 2003. Guthrie had a 1.42 WHIP in 2009.
• Lackey's strikeouts have declined a little but his walks have too. Guthries walks have increased in each of his three Orioles seasons.

So yes, Lackey has declined a little bit but he should still be an ace type for a few years. A team willing to take the plunge probably is hoping like the Yankees just did; he will help us make a run at the World Series now and that will be the biggest payoff of all.

When not writing about Fantasy Baseball, Ryan can be found writing at SienaSaintsBlog.com or is evaluating his baseball team at his own personal site.

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