During the conclusion of 2009 and into this year's playoffs, we'll be compiling our current Top 100 rankings for next year.
All 6 authors will be taking turns nominating whom they think are the best fantasy players in baseball, along with our first two big sleepers of 2010 upon conclusion. We'll also neatly wrap up and revise our initial Top 100 in the offseason, so you'll always have a quick list to use right before draft time.
In Part 3 this week, we'll be looking at players 25-36.
Haren has really cemented his position as an elite starter over the past two seasons. While he definitely got lucky in the BABIP department this year (.280) he also succeeded in upping his K/9 and dropping his BB/9, and consequently posted an outstanding 5.87 K/BB. I'd take him here over Halladay because Haren has a better K/9 and over Vazquez and Verlander because Haren is probably the least likely of the three to have an off year.
Troy: This was my big pick last year and his control has maintained. His strike outs aren't elite, but the ability to keep a K/BB over 5.00 for two straight years is just awesome. Would be willing to make him my ace again in 2010 if he slips to the third round.
26. Kevin Youkilis (Lee Perrault)
While there were a couple riskier picks I could have nominated here, I figured the safest third basemen available deserved the nod.
Youk has increased his wOBA for 4 straight years (.357, .373. 402, .413), and if not for a short DL stint in 2009, he also should have posted his highest R and RBI totals as well.
My biggest concern with Youk is his ability to finally eclipse 30 homeruns, but when you look at the other options in this stage, you're seeing a huge group of injury risks (Reyes, Votto), players with inexplicable warning signs (Wright's K% and BABIP), and breakout candidates whose regression to the mean we need to plan for (Zobrist).
It was tough to not pick my 2009 man crush (Votto), but early picks require being safe, and third base is showing early signs in 2010 of being top heavy and shallow.
Kevin: I was going to argue against it being shallow, but I know I'd rather have one of the top 6 guys or so, than anyone below that point. The middle tier isn't bad fantasy-wise, but the gap between the top tier is pretty big. If you wait on 3B, you'd better pull off some magic to make up for it.
27. Jacoby Ellsbury (Ryan A. Restivo)
Career highs in hits, doubles, triples, RBI, stolen bases and walks. Not bad entering the age-26 season, this is one Red Sox draftee who has paid off tremendously. I think you're going to get some of the same numbers for the next 3 years from Ellsbury. I can't see any power improvement even with the doubles, you have to think some of them are Fenway aided. The difference between him and Chone Figgins though, is the high level output of steals. You're paying for the super high steals, so he better play 150 games!
Aaron: I do my best to disagree with all of Ryan's picks but it's hard to argue with locking up a category at this point in the draft. 2009 was also Ellsbury's best year in both BB% and K% so maybe he's on his way to a .360+ OBP which can only help his RBI and R totals, and playing time.
28. Ben Zobrist (Aaron Murray)
Zobrist was a pleasant surprise during a disappointing year for the Rays as well as maybe the most valuable waiver pickup in all of fantasy sports for '09. Will he repeat his dominance in '10? Probably not. His second half this year tailed off from a 1.012 OPS to a .886 - maybe he was wearing down in his first full major league season. I wanted to pick Pedroia here if only to reward him for a solid jump in his BB/9 numbers but I think Zobrist has the better upside - 20/100/100/15/.300 seems like a pretty reasonable projection and perhaps a bit conservative in the HR and Steals categories. For a guy with those numbers to have 2B eligibility and possible 30/30 upside I'd love to get him in the 3rd round.
Lee: Zobrist's expected regression from last year has to come in play, but he still looks to be solid 20/20 player, and that's rare in middle infielders. So long as he holds onto that 2B tag, he's an elite option up the middle.
Kevin: I'd like him more if he had the full 2B/SS/OF eligibility in 2010. You have to have just the slightest skepticism on guys who bust out of nowhere at a later age (I'm thinking of Nelson Cruz too). Give them the benefit of the doubt, but don't put it all on the line for guys like this. And I personally wouldn't load up on more than one of them, at least early in a draft.
29. Roy Halladay (Kevin Jebens)
A lot of Toronto players seem to fly under the radar (I'm thinking Hill and Lind here), but Hallady certainly doesn't, and for good reason. Over the last two years, all he's done is give you great ERA (2.78, 2.79) and WHIP (1.05, 1.13), and a ton of innings, which makes the impact of his ERA/WHIP even more important. Add in 18 complete games and 6 shutouts in '08-'09 (which can be bonuses in points leagues), and 414 strikeouts, and you know what you're getting with this guy. I've gotta believe that if he's ever traded out of Toronto, he could be even better, because while Toronto's actually a decent club now, he'll be certain to move to a perennial contender.
Troy: Another control pitcher who wins you ERA and WHIP, but the wins and strike outs drag him out of the elite picks. He's still a solid number 1 for your team. Much like Haren he has maintained a K/BB over 5.00 for two years. Lock him up.
I already made a few posts about the 2009 season of Adam Lind, but in case you missed them, they are here and here. His defense is not very good, but thankfully he hasn't been relegated to full time DH yet and still holds outfield eligibility. As long as he has that he looks to be a force with good numbers across the board except for steals. I debated Jason Bay at this spot but opted for the batting average over the steals.
Lee: Does Bay's hot/cold act from last year bother anybody else? This is why I like Lind also. Players that seem to fluctuate sharply during the year always give me pause. Granted, most of Bay's problem was a rough BABIP in the summer, but that shouldn't be affecting his power unless he's not hitting flyballs, and that wasn't Bay's problem.
31. Adam Dunn (Lee Perrault)
Man Crush time!
While I could again go after upside, I choose to point towards the only 40+ HR hitter left on the board. Adam gets a lot of flack for his shoddy AVG, and that Nationals lineup will always limit his RBIs and Rs. While Dunn's Rs took a hit this year (81), he did eclipse 100 RBIs and was still top 20 in that category.
What I like about Adam is the 10% jump in O-Contact%. Just like I said about Mark Reynolds last year, if Dunn can continue to make contact outside of the zone more reliably, all those balls forced into play will fall into hits from time to time, unlike the strikeout that has a 0% chance of a hit, right?
I've been making a point to keep giving you the safe picks. Are you sitting around the middle-late 3rd round and don't want to make your reach pick yet? That's where Adam Dunn comes in.
Dunn's shelf life is my only concern. Eventually, these three-true-outcome guys all turn into Richie Sexson. Dunn probably has a couple more years until his breakdown, unless the Nationals move him to the AL so he can just be a DH and leverage all his value.
Aaron: Dunn's value is about as league dependent as it gets. In an OBP league he should provide borderline elite numbers and is often undervalued, in a BA league he's still a great value and often a bit underrated, while in H2H leagues Dunn may in fact be overrated because while his year-to-year numbers are the definition of consistency, his week-to-week numbers are the opposite. A guy who helps you win big one week but drags your team down then next is usually less valuable than a guy who gives you solid numbers in both - and obviously in leagues that penalize K's his value drops like a stone.
32. Jason Werth (Aaron Murray)
There's everything to love about Werth, power - 21.1 and 19.3 HR/FB% in '08 and '09 respectively, speed - 20 steals in each of the last two seasons, and a powerful lineup in which to hit. His FB% jumped from 38 to 44.4 this year and his career steal percentage is 89% so count on 30-35 HR, 20-25 Steals. If he really gets comfortable running more and can maintain his FB% he'll be one of the few guys who could make a run at 40-40 next year.
Kevin: I gotta balk at the 40/40 ceiling. I just don't think he'll go from 20 to 40. The HR production is solid, though, so I wouldn't gamble against a 40/20 year, maybe 40/25 at most. Of course, that still makes him a fantastic investment, and I love having this guy on my team.
Aaron: There's no doubt that 40/40 is a long shot for Werth but based on his success rate I can see a scenario in which he really goes for it if he has a good first half. Remember Canseco in '88? He did it practically on willpower alone. I'd give Werth maybe a 10-15% chance at 40/40 but how many other guys out there have even that kind of shot? It's also interesting to realize that Werth is one of the rare players who would probably steal more bags on a more sabermetrically oriented team since his success rate implies that he's actually hurting his team by not running more.
Lee: I think the only players who can possibly come close to 40/40 are Reynolds, Hanley, and Sizemore. Reynolds has the elite power, but may not get the chances to run. Hanley hasn't topped 40 homers yet, but 30/30 for him isn't much of a stretch. Sizemore needs to (besides being healthy) prove his power is legit. Personally, I think Hanley has the only realistic shot, and I wouldn't bet on it.
33. Aaron Hill (Ryan A. Restivo)
April 4th 2008 Aaron Hill signed a 4 year, $12 million deal. Even though he lost roughly two-thirds of 2008 to a concussion, that deal will still look really well. Hill was progressing from 2007 and broke out into a huge power spike. Hill slugged 40 points better in 2009 than he did in 2007. You can probably expect something in between for next year. I'm okay with 27-30 HR from a premium position like second from Hill. And who knows, maybe his 4-5 steals will help you win your league.
Aaron: I agree that you shouldn't count on 30+ HR from Hill as his HR/FB% in '10 was almost double his career rate but his BABIP was also twenty points below his career mark and he still had a .286 BA. He's a real 4.5 category threat at 2B so don't be afraid to pay for him.
Lee: Are his steals really enough to consider him a 4.5 category player? I don't see much more than Uggla's best season as a comparable to Hill, and #33 overall may be a little optimistic.
Let's continue with the risky picks. Sure, 1B is deep, as always. Sure, Votto lost time to injury, so some are skeptical, and his 2009 totals don't look good compared to others. But I'm betting on Votto putting up 30-35 HR (thanks, Great American Ball Park), 100+ R and RBI (he reached the low-80s with only 460 AB), and a strong .300+ BA. What's more, he one of the only SB threats from 1B: like Derrek Lee in his prime, I could see 5-10 SB from Votto, with an outside shot at 15.
Troy: I was big on Votto this past season and when he played he was elite, but the ear problems and the extreme grief and anxiety attacks limited his time. The anxiety attacks were largely kept quiet until he returned and were from his father's death. If he can keep himself on the field, expect a big breakout season.
Lee: If healthy, Votto's 2010 should give you the same return on Prince's breakout year. I absolutely love this kid's potential.
35. Andre Ethier(Lee Perrault)
Kevin stole my Votto pick!
But still, nothing wrong with having to fall back on a young hitter in his prime playing around a group of excellent players. Maybe if Joe Torre actually fills his lineup cards out correctly (hint: Matt Kemp bats 2nd), Ethier's bulging RBI numbers can get even more of a boost.
There are a bunch of comparable outfield bats at this spot, but I'll go with the age and upside and increasing BB% and HR/FB% totals Ethier provides than pick a consistent, but aging vet (Manny, Bay).
Kevin: I'm an Ethier fan myself, and I think his BA could get better next year. After all, he hit .300 in 2008. If he puts them together (and he should be able to, with growth), then you're looking at a possible line of .300/100/35/110 if you're lucky.
36. David Wright (Kevin Jebens)
Okay, his power fell off the map. But we've seen him hit 30 HR twice, and he's still a threat for SB, so I feel confident he'll put the two together and be a 30-30 threat again. He hit 5 HR at home and 5 on the road, so Citi Field isn't the immediate explanation for his lack of power, The concussion issue is a bit of a wild card, but I don't it ruining his career or even his 2010 season. Lee had mention Wright's high K% earlier, but bear in mind that he had an excessively high amount of strikeouts in September, after the injury when he was shying away. If he gets his confidence back, that K% should drop back down to his career average. Let's not forget that he was a top-5 pick (and earned it) just two years ago--and he's still on the good side of the age curve.
Aaron: Wright makes me nervous in '10 if only because I can't explain his precipitous drop in HR. If I can't explain it I usually try to keep my distance. According to ESPN park factors Citi Field was only slightly worse at producing HRs than Shea was so I agree that that probably wasn't the culprit but what was? It's also worth noting that Wright posted a typically strong BA in '09 (.307) but he needed a BABIP fifty points above his career mark to do it.
Lee: Yep, something about Citi Field is making me nervous about right handed power bats. Everything he did with that league leading BABIP turns him into a player I'd rather see someone else take a risk on.
4 comments:
I don't care WHAT you guys say, I'm keeping David Wright!!!! (I have to have confidence in him - he's my franchise)
I don't think I'll nitpick on who goes where. Obviously, it's you guys kinda choosing a player one by one, taking turns if you will. Each person has a preference, of course. I have a good feeling who will be included in the next bunch... But I also seriously am surprised that some of these names got beat out in the last batch. I love each of the players 30-36 (except maybe Dunn), but I don't know if they're much better than a few of the following: Dustin Pedroia, Jimmy Rollins, Morneau, Bay, Manny, and the Yankee combos of Jeter, Abreu, and Cano. Granted, I don't really like any of them, but some of those players I think deserve higher than 40. That's not even mentioning some of the pitchers that are coming next (I really thought Sabathia or Carpenter might have even made the top 40), but I know usually, in most Fantasy formats, pitchers are not considered as valuable. Just some thoughts.
Mark,
I agree that our top 100 isn't perfect by any means. And you can see our obvious bias for young, up-and-coming hitters. Though all are certainly valuable, here are some of my personal reasons why I didn't choose some of the players you list.
The fact that Sabathia isn't up there IS a bit shocking. But I'm scared of his consistently high IP and pitch counts. He's young and can take it, and he'll probably be fine for years to come, but look at what happened to Kerry Wood and Mark Prior. Just saying.
As for Rollins, he's "old" compared to some of the other guys, and I like upside. Plus, I tend to undervalue him because so many people overvalue him and assume he'll put up a 30+ HR season with 40 SB (not gonna happen).
Bay was a top-30 player in points leagues last year. But if he doesn't end up back in Boston, I think his value takes a hit.
Jeter is older, and until 2009 he was on a slow but steady decline. Abreu has to maintain his high SB total to have super value, and he's getting up there in age.
I think Morneau and Pedroia are overvalued. But they're still worthy of a pick in the 30s.
Cano seems to have blossomed, and he could certainly be included. I like Aaron Hill, but Cano could do just as well in 2010, with a better AVG.
Kevin: I was by no means saying the top 100 you guys provide is "wrong" in any way. I know each one of us has preferences, and different guidelines to look at players with. Honestly, I can agree with you on almost everything you said. I was just saying I was surprised to have not seen some of those names. Some of those players have put up comparable or superior numbers than the ones that DID make the cut. But I was quite aware that most of the names I listed were older veterans, or have not shown consistency. Some people would probably argue that Rollins is still a top SS, or that Sabathia had the best numbers overall, or something like that. Just trying to get a discussion on it, is all.
No worries, bro. Didn't take offense. Just continuing the discussion/debate. =)
I think it's quite interesting to see who didn't make it. This is actually why I don't make strict, number-order lists when I go into my own drafts: these are very comparable guys. For what it's worth, I do still think Rollins is a top SS. Just not as top as some other SS options, and other hitters. And I think were I to redo some of my picks, I'd probably put Sabathia up there, instead of Hallady.
My ranks are always changing; to use Joe Maddon's term, they're "slightly amorphous." =)
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